Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

anything coming of the sky probably wet rather than white in kent and parts of east anglia - story of 2020-1 so far

Really?????

[Pembroke Dangler]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

Incredible cold....what is the GFS playing at?  

 

BFTP

I don’t know but it’s nice too see never the less perfectly plausible and within the envelope of the means at this point in time great synoptic

[Stu_London]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Really?????

thats 2 days later - it was an irony post anyway. + 252 might as well be showing weather patterns on Neptune for all the use there are to us at this very moment in time.

Edited January 9, 2021 by Stu_London

[Froze were the Days]

I honestly don't think the models have a clue at the moment - ECM not showing a GHP at day 10...GFS swinging wildly from run to run from averageness to possible meltdowns in here (nothing knew there), UKMO teasing but that's about it. I wonder if we can say come back in a few days time and things will become a bit clearer?...I doubt it!

Edited January 9, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[Methuselah]

It might be highly unlikely to happen... But, hey, the 06Z has brightened up my day!

     

And then there's the age-old problem with marginality: will powder snow lie on the beach, or not!

     

Edited January 9, 2021 by General Cluster

[Ice Day]

Well, FI or not, the 6z is one of the runs of the winter so far, gets proper deep cold in and just gets colder.

  

The Para at 240 also delivers the goods.

Caveat - This WILL be very different on the next run!

[bluearmy]

Micro analysis more than five days out  means you’ve really nothing better to be doing .....

the para showing a little more continuity than the op 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

thats 2 days later

I know, but not sure why you were worried about a chart that was almost guaranteed to give you a pasting 2 days later, you could say t50 doesnt give you a dumping, yes i know its deep FI at 288 but surely we are debating how good the run for snow is here, obviously a heck of a long way to get it to t0 and odds against of course although some support from both ENS suites.

[Sweatyman]

15 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The swings between consecutive GFS runs are quite astounding at the moment. Day 10 / 00z Tuesday 19 Jan below 00z v 06z:

00z day 10

06z Day 10

The model really struggling with what's likely a combo of SSW downwelling, re-amplification in Atlantic and arctic high extending towards GIN corridor.

06z GFS reverted back to what it showed on the 18z, will the 12z show what the 00z showed just to keep the rollercoaster going?!

Say it again.. but its these 00zs.Always underwhelming .Dont know why

[Stu_London]

3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I honestly don't think the models have a clue at the moment - ECM not showing a GHP at day 10...GFS swinging wildly from run to run from averageness to possible meltdowns in here (nothing knew here), UKMO teasing but that's about it. I wonder if we can say come back in a few days time and things will become a bit clearer?...I doubt it!

I genuinely think that FI is about 72 hours onwards at the moment. SSWs are kryptonite for the supercomputers

[bluearmy]

something to look at as the gfs op rumbles on in the T300’s ....the Atlantic ridge retreats south and the jet powers up - no analysis of the specifics of this run but where will the trough extension coming off the esb go ?  This represents a fair cluster of gefs members and would like to know how the op handles the interaction between Atlantic jet and sceuro trough 

[Nick F]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Micro analysis more than five days out  means you’ve really nothing better to be doing .....

the para showing a little more continuity than the op 

 

Yep, the last two PARA runs similar to each other and similar broadly day 8 onwards as today's 06z and yesterday's 18z with the Atlantic/Greenland block and deep cold over NE Europe / Svalbard edging our way. 

Given there's good support from the 00z EPS clusters and mean for the above, it seems, unbelievable that it seems, given the crap winters we've suffered, that we maybe on the cusp of something memorable cold and snowy-wise.

Day 10 clusters

But still a way to go yet until we can be sure we are not being led up the garden path ...

Edited January 9, 2021 by Nick F

[Jason H]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Micro analysis more than five days out  means you’ve really nothing better to be doing .....

the para showing a little more continuity than the op 

 

I agree with this post, but it's a slightly condecending way of putting it. 5 days is the maximum at the moment and probably most of the time. But it had to be said, each run seems to end cold. 

Edited January 9, 2021 by Jason H

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I just want this to happen....there’ll be no concerns over breaking lockdown here

 

BFTP

Edited January 9, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[IDO]

Perfect placement of the Azores trough/low at d8 on the gfs 06z:

d8 06z gfs op>

Making the best out of this trop led ridge. The 0z was the complete opposite, the worse case scenario. So I would say anywhere between the two for d8+, flatter or more perpendicular flow? The clusters highlight the difficulty at this range to nail that feature, small cluster supportive of the op, but declining clusters from there:

Certainly this appears to be happenstance atm, rather than imprinting from the strat so fingers crossed we get closer to the 06z take?

[Djdazzle]

For those who don’t have time to read the last few pages:

No model or indeed human has any idea where we are heading. I agree that anything past 3 days is pure fantasy at the moment.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Jason H said:

I agree with this post, but it's a slightly condecending way of putting it. 5 days is the maximum at the moment and probably most of the time. But it had to be said, each run seems to end cold. 

Not meant to be Jason - probably directed as much at myself ! 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 minutes ago, Jason H said:

I agree with this post, but it's a slightly condecending way of putting it. 5 days is the maximum at the moment and probably most of the time. But it had to be said, each run seems to end cold. 

I think it’s aimed across the board...where will we end up?  No idea...but I have my bias

 

BFTP

[bluearmy]

The para runs on a wedge evolution  which fits quite well with the ens mean - though I don’t feel the mean is overly representative at certain points as timings on ridges and trough aren’t quite in sync across the members 

a lesser spotted channel low !  If we get a flatter Atlantic then it’s feasible although a higher risk strategy...

[Tim Bland]

Starting to feel like ‘all roads lead to Rome’ with very different runs leading to similar outcomes around day 10...let’s just hope it doesn’t stay at day 10...

[Premiere Neige]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

something to look at as the gfs op rumbles on in the T300’s ....the Atlantic ridge retreats south and the jet powers up - no analysis of the specifics of this run but where will the trough extension coming off the esb go ?  This represents a fair cluster of gefs members and would like to know how the op handles the interaction between Atlantic jet and sceuro trough 

What would you say the chances of the jet firing up would be given the current synoptics and the prospect of a further strat warming? I might be completely wrong but it just doesn't seem the likely outcome to me. (N.B. that's not me saying we will be locked in the freezer from the end of January until April).

[Man With Beard]

10 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Yep, the last two PARA runs similar to each other and similar broadly day 8 onwards as today's 06z and yesterday's 18z with the Atlantic/Greenland block and deep cold over NE Europe / Svalbard edging our way. 

Given there's good support from the 00z EPS clusters and mean for the above, it seems, unbelievable that it seems, given the crap winters we've suffered, that we maybe on the cusp of something memorable cold and snowy-wise.

Day 10 clusters

But still a way to go yet until we can be sure we are not being led up the garden path ...

That's a stunning signal from the clusters. The key difference between these charts and those earlier in the week is the drop in heights for Europe. Back into the freezer we go? But need to see this consistently for a few more runs.

[Tim Bland]

Just for fun...and because I have nothing better to do...shall we start that debate on what a ‘Blizzard ‘ is

Edited January 9, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Frostbite1980]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Just for fun...and because I have nothing better to do...shall we start that debate on what a ‘Blizzard ‘ is

I love your snow charts even if unlikely its what keeps many of us going

Edited January 9, 2021 by Frostbite1980

[ALL ABOARD]

Para for the last few runs delivering blizzards to the south... 

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