Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?


Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

GFSP not being mentioned tonight because it basically goes zonal.

That said, based on all output and GEFS nobody can really predict at present beyond day 6 (even that is a stretch). The GEFS are all over the place by day 6.

 

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

using the mean for trends is probably at its least effective with so many variables out there. 

I'd like to see some clustering of the long ensembles to spot a trend right this minute - but nothing doing at the moment. 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Jason M said:

GFSP not being mentioned tonight because it basically goes zonal.

That said, based on all output and GEFS nobody can really predict at present beyond day 6 (even that is a stretch). The GEFS are all over the place by day 6.

 

Parallel seems to have gone wrong as early as D6- clue: look at W Greenland

image.thumb.png.227bdef2b2818ce66da973859f31a933.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

This is the theme. just need to panic where the block sits now

8E79FF96-DBC4-4126-8D40-510120BCA3BE.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

For balance, the GFSP is absolutely abysmal tonight.  No Atlantic amplification whatsoever and to be fair, the 12z went a bit flat in FI as well.  Whilst it's pretty dreadful I really wouldn't be discounting anything at the moment.

That said, the Control is looking pretty decent at 228

image.thumb.png.f77885ed1967819ccfd4cf9e4224fd6f.png

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Just now, CreweCold said:

Parallel seems to have gone wrong as early as D6- clue: look at W Greenland

image.thumb.png.227bdef2b2818ce66da973859f31a933.png

It does feel unlikely, but given the chaos in the GEFS tonight I'd be reticent to bet the house on anything being wrong right now. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

using the mean for trends is probably at its least effective with so many variables out there. 

I'd like to see some clustering of the long ensembles to spot a trend right this minute - but nothing doing at the moment. 

 

Didn’t you see the eps clusters that were posted on here ?  

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

Add into the equation of greater downwelling than what the models are currently picking up on, and also SSW reinforcements coming into the equation in 8 to 10 days time I think it's safe to say there will be more cold pushed out into lower regions than currently being modeled. Personally I think were in for a very potent spell of cold that could potentially last right through February. Good signs as it stands.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Just now, bluearmy said:

Didn’t you see the eps clusters that were posted on here ?  

I haven't seen them tonight to be honest. Fair play if they are picking a trend. Just a lot of white noise at the minute, particularly with the GFS - which is actually normal but has been amplified by the general model uncertainty. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
6 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

using the mean for trends is probably at its least effective with so many variables out there. 

I'd like to see some clustering of the long ensembles to spot a trend right this minute - but nothing doing at the moment. 

 

What would be your assessment of these? The mean is so strong because of these. Detail will come nearer to the time but the trend is clear imo.

9CEEC489-C5C7-488F-A629-1184CA2A9630.png

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 hour ago, Griff said:

144 gfs vs p... 

I'm just trying to keep up, but these look like they'll have different evolutions. 

gfsnh-0-144 (1).png

gfsnh-0-144.png

(waiting for guaranteed egg on my face) 

I wish I hadn't now...  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Just now, That ECM said:

What would be your assessment of these? The mean is so strong because of these. Detail will come nearer to the time but the trend is clear imo.

9CEEC489-C5C7-488F-A629-1184CA2A9630.png

Definitely a trend for a block moving towards Greenland - what happens next is probably key - collapse, go west or topple. 

There is big potential for some quite severe winter fayre. If it does occur, longevity, just how severe and whether it is a nationwide event is Mystic Meg stuff at the moment.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Just now, CreweCold said:

At this point I'm not quite sure what can stop that big, densely cold area of Siberian air hurtling SW. There's barely any W'ly momentum in the system...

Looks that way and I hope you are right but you have been around long enough to know that the UK usually finds a way to dodge the cold. 

Expectations of a cold spell, even when they become modelled, always have to be tempered with that reality.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tweeddale 145m
  • Location: Tweeddale 145m
18 minutes ago, Jason M said:

GFSP not being mentioned tonight because it basically goes zonal.

That said, based on all output and GEFS nobody can really predict at present beyond day 6 (even that is a stretch). The GEFS are all over the place by day 6.

 

Everbody here knows we could go zonal even with a SSW. Zonal is the norm for our little island in the atlantic. Models struggle to get to grips with SSW's. Why should members comment on a run likely to be wrong showing zonal ?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I'm getting all flustered, its either the output, or the male menopause... They are seriously shaping up, and I've only viewed a dozen of them.. 

gens-1-0-264.png

gens-5-1-264.png

gens-5-0-264.png

gens-10-1-264.png

gens-11-0-276.png

gens-13-1-264.png

200-4.gif

Pert 10 is an absolute beaut

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Op not representative of the suite in FI

 

image.png

Edited by LRD
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
48 minutes ago, Welsh_Weather said:

Based on every operational in the reliable timeframe. I think it’s more down to you to prove that your opinion is correct. Yes there are ensemble members pointing at cold and plenty of operational’s showing potential in FI but apart from potential I’ve yet to see anything concrete showing ‘real cold’ making its way to the UK at some point.  

This seems to be what the long range forecasts namely the BBC monthly outlook and perhaps to a lesser degree the Metoffice are hinting at, albeit with low confidence, so all to play for IMO.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...