Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?


Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

 Sensational gem! showing the black hole,its been a while,coldest air over Ne scandi for years,trying to get here it looks like,not marginal,even if your on the East coast,be ice-floes in their ,if that air makes it

Why?...it's not showing that degree of cold...most of the brutal stuff is still holed in Scandinavia. You know this chart has little degree of verifying?

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Why?...it's not showing that degree of cold...most of the brutal stuff is still holed in Scandinavia. You know this chart has little degree of verifying?

To be fair that could be said of most +180 hour charts, but hey we're all still here

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

I'm not sharing the excitement with others - what am I missing?

I'm looking for a long lasting cold spell, but GFS seems keen on a good northerly followed by a west based -ve NAO then Atlantic domination. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Why?...it's not showing that degree of cold...most of the brutal stuff is still holed in Scandinavia. You know this chart has little degree of verifying?

Its more that we are seeing that sort of brutal cold in Europe,havent seen it like that for years,if we get that over here,then watchout where you live on east coast.!!

 

 

GFS P doing the same now..

Edited by SLEETY
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I'm not sharing the excitement with others - what am I missing?

I'm looking for a long lasting cold spell, but GFS seems keen on a good northerly followed by a west based -ve NAO then Atlantic domination. 

I think it's more we're now seeing the models picking up on the possible cold, and once they do things can upgrade quickly over the coming days and weeks!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
6 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I'm not sharing the excitement with others - what am I missing?

I'm looking for a long lasting cold spell, but GFS seems keen on a good northerly followed by a west based -ve NAO then Atlantic domination. 

It's one operational run. The signs are there that a cold pattern is emerging in the last third of the month. There is no long lasting cold spell currently.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
20 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Couldn’t of drawn the m4 better if it had tried.

ABE0DD31-7AEF-4895-AFC5-1432EBDEC755.png

I presume that is GFS - it is simply that it has a row of grid points along the M4 corridor, so if the snow line is even anywhere near, that is where it will show on the charts.  We need the higher resolution models nearer the time to give a more meaningful picture.  

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
9 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I'm not sharing the excitement with others - what am I missing?

I'm looking for a long lasting cold spell, but GFS seems keen on a good northerly followed by a west based -ve NAO then Atlantic domination. 

Deep FI John?  Let’s see if we get the deep cold plunge and let’s see if it shifts that quickly.  It’s great model watching and educationally guessing etc 

 

BFTP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
7 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

I think it's more we're now seeing the models picking up on the possible cold, and once they do things can upgrade quickly over the coming days and weeks!

Conversely they could also downgrade especially for southern parts!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I presume that is GFS - it is simply that it has a row of grid points along the M4 corridor, so if the snow line is even anywhere near, that is where it will show on the charts.  We need the higher resolution models nearer the time to give a more meaningful picture.  

Yes gfs and tongue in cheek. I’ll worry if it gets to T72

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

Conversely they could also downgrade especially for southern parts!

thats why it's called model watching

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I'm not sharing the excitement with others - what am I missing?

 

Nothing unless you like cold rain or your a hobnail mountain goat. I think there could be a lot of disappointment if People are waiting for a lengthy cold spell.

image.thumb.png.431d1bbc619ecb2d90f85200b3229739.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Conversely they could also downgrade especially for southern parts!

Precisely, but that's just how it goes. The most encouraging thing is, is that we're now seeing cold modelled across multiple models. 

Whether we strike lucky who knows, but we've definitely got a ticket! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
7 minutes ago, snowking said:

Yeah if anyone is looking for the exact synoptic pattern 10 days out you’re going to be disappointed.

Keep on following the overall longwave themes:

Heights rising to our NW

Asian vortex segment retrogressing into Scandinavia (and beyond....)

Big artic high (which is always poorly modelled beyond a few days)

Continued warming episodes in the stratosphere

 

For as long as the models continue to show these themes, we should all be happy. That’s as much as we can ask for right now.

But surely if you're talking about themes, you also have to mention the theme of the Greenland high scooting quickly westwards a couple of days after forming?

I'm not trying to cause an uproar, but that's my concern. 

Edited by Johnp
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
3 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Nothing unless you like cold rain or your a hobnail mountain goat. I think there could be a lot of disappointment if People are waiting for a lengthy cold spell.

image.thumb.png.431d1bbc619ecb2d90f85200b3229739.png

BS

presented by GFS known BIAS

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'm not, for one minute, suggesting that SE France will enjoy 15C Uppers, in January... But, what intrigues me, is that there must be sufficient data for a state-of-the-art NWP to suggest that it might... Hey, ho, model-watching at its best?:drunk-emoji:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

The Control is out to 228 and continues the general pattern and theme of the 12z's so far.  

image.thumb.png.d68f97e789845731e52853a243b42954.png

Will the ECM come along and continue the positivity or throw a spanner in the works????

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...