Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[Man With Beard]

Models trending away from a surprise slider snow event for middle of next week, apart from perhaps Lancs/Yorks north - as it's getting close to T0 now it'll be a little bit of a surprise if ECM sticks to its 00Z solution - but it's a period full of surprises!

What seems more consistent is the trend to the northerly shortly after next weekend.

[Notty]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

GFSP looks unrealistic

It does look more consistent than the OP though.

12z

6z

[Battleground Snow]

Wow what a 240 chart!!

Definitely worthy of a @sheikhy exclamation marks

 

Edited January 9, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Yeah.. maybe.. but then we do end up with this at day 9.5

maybe worthy of gentle boom.. I’m saving the upper cases booming until and if we get to day 4

If that's a gentle Boom .....A large Boom would destroy the UK

[TSNWK]

8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

GFSP looks unrealistic

Cool.. thanks for letting us know.. I’m happy to ignore and go with older sibling dishing out this at day 10

 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Cool.. thanks for letting us know.. I’m happy to ignore and go with older sibling dishing out this at day 10

 

The low looks too strong. 

[Froze were the Days]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Imagine if this comes off, Forum overload!! 

Yes imagine...and that's all I've been doing since just before Xmas, some great looking charts over the last couple of weeks or so but how many of them have actually materialised? (not sure I'll need any fingers to count).

Just a question if GFS keeps running with this theme with a GHP and trough dropping towards the UK and ECM up to day 10 has none of it can you guess what will happen?

Edited January 9, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

If that's a gentle Boom .....A large Boom would destroy the UK

Oh I want too and I’m sure do others.. needs to be below 100 hundred hours..

[Griff]

7 minutes ago, Griff said:

So heard good things about the gem of late, here it's against ukmo at 120..

 

Here's gfs and p at 120...

ECM looks a bit on its own 

Edited January 9, 2021 by Griff

[bluearmy]

31 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Is that good or bad. 

Bad 

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Wow what a 240 chart!!

Definitely worthy of a @sheikhy explanation marks

 

Gona wait till that darn 12z ecm before those exclamations come out in full force!!!!!

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The low looks too strong. 

Yes not much to fire that up

Edited January 9, 2021 by winterof79

[Ice Day]

Absolute scenes at 258

  

This is for 20 January .... it's that date again?  

Caveat - it will not happen like this!

[Ventnor Viking]

8 minutes ago, Griff said:

So heard good things about the gem of late, here it's against ukmo at 120..

 

I heard somewhere a while ago that the GEM was great for forecasting cold solutions and more specifically arctic and northern hemisphere modelling. If I remember rightly it was because its the Canadian model and they needed it to be specifically accurate for cold forecasting etc.  

Edited January 9, 2021 by Ventnor Viking

[IDO]

If you take the crap cluster out of the 06z ens then the op at d10 was the top cluster as to how the Atlantic evolves (30% region). So no forlorn hope, though the caveat that there was variation within this theme:

d10 gfs op 12z>

It does bring into play the ebb and flow of Iberian heights so not my number one choice.

[Methuselah]

Snowlovers' heaven from the 12Z... And no need for the 'M' word, either!

    

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

 

Yes, any meaningful cold / snow below 300m would be a challenge with that.

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Snowlovers' heaven from the 12Z... And no need for the 'M' word, either!

    

That chart would be marginal on the east coast

[Eskimo]

Well the MetOffice are going for southerly tracking lows as we enter the second half of January and the GFS has been pretty bullish with this idea for the past few days. 


 

[That ECM]

Couldn’t of drawn the m4 better if it had tried.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Couldn’t of drawn the m4 better if it had tried.

The South couldn’t handle even an inch of snow, so the weather gods thought bugger  you.

Edited January 9, 2021 by prolongedSnowLover

[Daniel*]

Not a great fan of this pattern needs to all come south a bit, but that would be extremely snowy and disruptive in northern U.K. amazing how far cold troughing extends from Arctic that’s SSW for you.

[Zak M]

This GFS run is absolutely stunning. 2nd run on the trot now that it's been showing the cold air (850hpa temps around -8/-9c for the whole country!) coming down from the north.

   

Edited January 9, 2021 by Zak M

[SLEETY]

 Sensational gem! showing the black hole,its been a while,coldest air over Ne scandi for years,trying to get here it looks like,not marginal,even if your on the East coast,be ice-floes in their ,if that air makes it

[Griff]

Since I'm late to the party this afternoon, here's the gem 240. Ecm to follow soon? 

 

Edit : kudos @SLEETYfor having quicker fingers... 

Edited January 9, 2021 by Griff