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Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted

GFS vs para 102

I'm taking the morning off, seems too much going on to invest in (until later when I'm bored). 

Enjoy. 

Needless to say // gets my approval. 

gfsnh-0-102 (1).png

gfsnh-0-102.png

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
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Posted

Looking at the Euro4 im not convinced GFS is right even at +48!

21011106_0900.gif

Note the N,lys over the far N of Scotland and Shetland islands. Ridge of high pressure extending further S in this model compared to others.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, MJB said:

image.thumb.png.4e0cb1e13b024ca875ae3c648a1cff64.png

There you go , from Matt H

Not having ago at you at all you are responding to people asking for info on what was said.  No different to what people have been discussing on here.  Can’t have a discussion with someone who isn’t in the room. This is NOT new news.

 

Hi TEITS.

Edited by That ECM
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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Looking at the Euro4 im not convinced GFS is right even at +48!

21011106_0900.gif

Note the N,lys over the far N of Scotland and Shetland islands. Ridge of high pressure extending further S in this model compared to others.

Welcome back . What’s your thoughts on the outlook ? Thanks 

 

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Well at least the 6z is going the right way around the T200 mark unlike the 00z . 

029F5069-2CFF-4CCD-81A1-4BADEE6C21F4.png

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
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Posted

Been out of action really for a week. Snowing in Spain, and this on the ECM as we move towards that final third of January which has been flagged for a good while as the potential crescendo point for winter,

image.thumb.png.dbf36145504353ba5d5063e445df9540.png

That’ll do for a first look! More detail later once I’ve caught up.

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
3 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Looking at the Euro4 im not convinced GFS is right even at +48!

21011106_0900.gif

Note the N,lys over the far N of Scotland and Shetland islands. Ridge of high pressure extending further S in this model compared to others.

Fantastic to see you back posting TEITS, hope you're well. 

And yes, I said a few minutes ago that FI was around 120.... I was wrong, it's earlier.  But just for fun, GFS at 204 is looking 'nice'

image.thumb.png.5668447685e64e89bc5d8bee55833de6.png

Shame it's probably wrong about 48 hours in!

 

 

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

As an example of the lack of consistency, the 6z at 216 v the 0z for the same time

image.thumb.png.02aa32b6521d0d43c5c97501c96306f4.pngimage.thumb.png.9175c546134b0af82de39f3cb0914a50.png  

It's really not got a handle on things at all!

 

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

GFS 06z looks to be following the 00z parallel.

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
12 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Not having ago at you at all you are responding to people asking for info on what was said.  No different to what people have been discussing on here.  Can’t have a discussion with someone who isn’t in the room. This is NOT new news.

 

Hi TEITS.

Well you are clearly 

I have  posted what was requested , end of 

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Anthony Burden Seasoned

Anthony Burden

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
Posted
22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Can you put anything worthwhile in the tweet thread - some of us are blocked by Matt 

Sorry to hear that,perhaps I can give more information on what he said.Also Marco Patanga from the met office

gives a great read on Twitter.

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
7 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Emphasis on *could*!

A guessing game from everyone in the weather industry , John Hammond in his Monthly update is also guessing .

No one really has a clue do they ? do we ? lol

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Who's going to say the the GFS 06Z is too flat? h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png 

Welcome back Dave @TEITS!

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Wow great to have @TEITS back! We just need crazy snow fan from luuutons and Ian Brown and it will be like the good old days !

Some eye candy again in FI but so many changes early on shows that FI is still day 4. We are actually no further forward with this model malarkey than when Teits first joined the forum or the days of BBC snow watch & Metcheck !

2199F4A8-1308-40B4-8B7C-27F4432B8818.png

26174AEF-09D6-49C8-8297-CDEB10FFEC3B.png

EFB0153D-9D6B-4FDC-9CC3-45EFB41BA4D0.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted

The swings between consecutive GFS runs are quite astounding at the moment. Day 10 / 00z Tuesday 19 Jan below 00z v 06z:

00z day 10

GFSOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.37fdd8e7c9573a0018e62e3efb3d19cf.png

06z Day 10

GFSOPEU06_234_1.thumb.png.b37e7e5a5126f143a886e9e6dabbd9b2.png

The model really struggling with what's likely a combo of SSW downwelling, re-amplification in Atlantic and arctic high extending towards GIN corridor.

06z GFS reverted back to what it showed on the 18z, will the 12z show what the 00z showed just to keep the rollercoaster going?!

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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Lynn said:

GFS 06Z we live in hope  and perfectly plausible!

Wow just wow what a chart!

6Z GFS.png

I must admit that does look stunning! We just need some cold air and we're good for business

Though of course as the GFS is swinging like madness at the moment 

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted
Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

252

hgt500-1000.png

anything coming of the sky probably wet rather than white in kent and parts of east anglia - story of 2020-1 so far

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