Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[Matt H]

Perturbation 26 is the jackpot run with -12c uppers widely across the UK.

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening guys, have not posted for a while due to working late(12:00am)but not tonight oh no,not on a Friday

we just missed out on the big snow event here today with 6">a foot of snow in places just north of here,Harrogate being one of the sweet spots, it has been snowing here for the last two days but only light and the heavier stuff not consistent enough and patchy

anyway,back to the models and i have got to tell ya that things are looking good again as we go into next week and i remember that someone said that this milder mid month would just be a blip,well they could be right looking at the latest anomaly charts from the EPS,CPC and EPS clusters/EXT clusters,these look excellent to me and if you don't agree give me a knock:-

this winter i have seen more snow falling and not marginal wet stuff either than since 2018,what a start to the winter season

last evening on my break:- 

and this evening at the same time we had settling snow so i am chuffed

one last one...,check out the control run,a dream chart to dream about,...GOODNIGHT.

 

 

[Day_9]

What was that Status Quo tune? Down down, deeper and down

 

 

[Stu_London]

53 minutes ago, Day_9 said:

What was that Status Quo tune? Down down, deeper and down

 

 

Think the 18z ones might be more impressive!

[Snowman.]

1 hour ago, Stu_London said:

Think the 18z ones might be more impressive!

[Battleground Snow]

Icon at 126 and 180

Doesn't have a snow event on Tuesday, but it's not far away let's see if Ukmo sticks to its guns later

Heading in the right direction with the ridge. This is one of  the rare times where we want USA/Canada low pressure system to deepen.

 

 

Edited January 9, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo

 

[Battleground Snow]

Significant changes on the 00z from the 18z

Let's hope the para is better because the ridge in the Atlantic is nowhere to be seen here

[Battleground Snow]

Para at the same time... Looks a 100 times better... I'm not sure where it even goes wrong on the op it's that different from last night... Maybe someone can show me why it looks so different?

Edit: para doesn't cut off the low on this run so, the ridge is weaker into Greenland, still looks decent though let's hope ECM can follow it's run from yesterday later

Edited January 9, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[SLEETY]

Joke of an gfs run, so different than last night, no cold spell like it was showing if this run is correct, always the 00z runs are dreadful, even ukmo not that good, too much Azores high influence, hope ECM, better

[Radiating Dendrite]

00z downgrades - was not expecting that

Let's wait for the 12z runs later, morning usually always starts with a bump. 

[Kentspur]

Its all good in the hood GEMs got this

 

Edit north of the M4

Edited January 9, 2021 by Kentspur

[Battleground Snow]

10 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

00z downgrades - was not expecting that

Let's wait for the 12z runs later, morning usually always starts with a bump. 

It's only really the OP which reaches for the self destruct button.

Para in FI still is great and mean is also similar to the 18z

[feb1991blizzard]

panic over - GEFS rock solid at 240

[Weather-history]

GFS 0z bonkers ensemble award goes to number 11

[Weather-history]

Woah ECM 0z at 114hrs

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Woah ECM 0z at 114hrs

Double woah at 132hrs

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 ECM

 

Not sure what to think given the other output but this is a developing easterly at day 6 and cold enough for snow underneath the front straddling central areas.

[ICE COLD]

Now the ECM wants to play at day 6

Edited January 9, 2021 by ICE COLD

[Kentspur]

7 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Double woah at 132hrs

M4 springs to mind as soon as I saw this  Maybe GEM was on to something 

[IDO]

Looks like the ecm and gfs op had been modelling the Azores trough/low wrong and both ditch it this morning. The subsequent flatter pattern may suggest that the charts by d9 were trop led in the Atlantic sector? Only one run so we shall see. Those cut-off lows are notorious to model in FI!

The ukmo still looks wrong at d5 and in any case by d6 it looks like it is correcting itself to the ecm and gfs. d8 ecm and gfs (I stop at d10 as it is clear ecm d10 charts have issues in these setups):

The gfs more progressive ass we would expect. The gfs control is also flatter and the mean has trended that way:

 d13> 

Looking at the gefs at d13, still some interesting charts, but as others have said, the ops usually lead they way in these scenarios so the changes from d7 are noteworthy.

I think maybe the models were just presumptuous and that the last third of Jan remains the call for things to develop. It does not look like a qtr and without forcing from the trop, seemingly slow and steady maybe how it will go? 

[That ECM]

Mean for the 17th and the mean for the 20th.

[NewEra21]

Everyone paying attention to the GFS and ECM, but I wouldn't overlook one of the lesser models stumbling on the correct solution. Even if by more luck than anything.

I believe back in 2018 it was the icon which first picked up the BFTE. Not saying the Icon, Gem etc will do again. But they're definitely worth keeping an eye on imo just to see if the so called bigger models latch onto any of their thinkings!

[mulzy]

The EPS continues the improvement in the extended timeframe with the reduction of heights over Western Europe.  High heights over Greenland and very low heights over western Russia/southern Scandinavia.
 

[northwestsnow]

Mean on EC is nice!