Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[Battleground Snow]

Para is messy this run with lows in the Atlantic but still might get there. Heights joining up in the Arctic

 

[Man With Beard]

Can I say, I know we've been lauding the GFS for certain "wins" recently *but* in this instance, I think we've seen in the past the UKMO will beat it when it comes to wedge/slider scenarios - in which case, it isn't really worth taking today's GFS in FI too seriously because it will already be so wildly wrong by D5.

[IDO]

I Suppose the gfs op is what the Met where talking about with a SW'ly flow from a GH:

The question is, how do we get rid of the Iberian heights once the GH is closed off as the HP circulation just feeds that region?

[Griff]

West based? Genuine question 

[snowking]

1 minute ago, Man Without Beard said:

Can I say, I know we've been lauding the GFS for certain "wins" recently *but* in this instance, I think we've seen in the past the UKMO will beat it when it comes to wedge/slider scenarios - in which case, it isn't really worth taking today's GFS in FI too seriously because it will already be so wildly wrong by D5.

Exactly this.

With the chaos aloft at the moment, it's only really worth looking at the overall trends beyond a few days. The main things we're seeing:

- An Arctic high which increasingly wants to come and play towards our side of the hemisphere
- The jet stream running out of steam across the Atlantic
- The temporarily Asian based vortex segment wanting to retrogress around the southern side of the Arctic high

The detail will continue to vary hugely in between all of that (including whether the UKMO solution has any legs to it in the shorter term), but looking ahead to the latter part of January, all those ingredients keep us well and truly in the game.

[BalderstoneNick]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

West based? Genuine question 

Yep

[Tim Bland]

12 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

The GEM takes the UKMO option but goes further still ... though the UKMO is similar to the ECM and therefore must been given more weight, I definitely would not discount the GEM solution at this stage! 

What’s the chances the ECM will follow the GEM later IF we have the ECM, GEM and UKMO in one camp, we can definitely discount the GFS ...

[Timmytour]

UKMO looking like how we want it to go....GFS looking like how we all too often see it go!

interesting ECM ahead.

All the 2013 talk reminds me that the time of THAT ECM when we waited with bated breath for it to get on board with the GFS narnia .....it did and we were looking at model agreement with just 48 hours away, but then almost on its very next run the GFS steered completely away from it and the others followed!  That was I think at the end of December, about 12 days before we did get a real taste of winter, and after some had thrown all their toys out of the pram and written off the rest of  the season!

 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Timmytour

[Griff]

Regarding the idea that ecm might follow the GEM... 

[phil nw.]

In the medium term around days 8 onwards we can start to see battle lines being drawn.It's a moveable feast at this stage so GFS is just showing the trend but obviously detail still up for grabs.

The main points are the increasing heights to our north and the cold pool to our ne.This along with an increasingly slow Atlantic jet and we have a recipe for trough disruption somewhere near or over the UK.

[Battleground Snow]

Para is still close to an epic chart here... More ups and downs to come I think. Would be good to get a suprise snowfall in the early timeframe, especially for people who haven't had snow yet.

 

[Cold Winter Night]

4 minutes ago, snowking said:

Exactly this.

With the chaos aloft at the moment, it's only really worth looking at the overall trends beyond a few days. The main things we're seeing:

- An Arctic high which increasingly wants to come and play towards our side of the hemisphere
- The jet stream running out of steam across the Atlantic
- The temporarily Asian based vortex segment wanting to retrogress around the southern side of the Arctic high

The detail will continue to vary hugely in between all of that (including whether the UKMO solution has any legs to it in the shorter term), but looking ahead to the latter part of January, all those ingredients keep us well and truly in the game.

Yes, the good trends have been in all models for days now, despite all the wobbles. And so much more interesting than what we have seen the past few years!

More interesting than the post-192h FI charts by GFS (P) will be the ensembles 96-168 and what ECM/EPS presents tonight.
Will they join the rest showing medium term height rises popping up NW and NE?

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Para is still close to an epic chart here... More ups and downs to come I think. Would be good to get a suprise snowfall in the early timeframe, especially for people who haven't had snow yet.

 

Not sure all going to go west surely? 

[Methuselah]

This sort of reminds me a bit of January, February 2001, when we north of Perth had 60cm of powder snow, and couldn't get to work... The 'Big News' was, of course, that Southern Scotland and parts of England experienced heavy rain!

Edited January 8, 2021 by General Cluster

[Alexis]

UKMO and GFS start to disagree at about 100 hours by the looks of it!

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Not sure all going to go west surely? 

The cold is still creeping in from the North east even in this set up... A long way away, and no doubt will change multiple times in the next week

[Griff]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

The cold is still creeping in from the North east even in this set up... A long way away, and no doubt will change multiple times in the next week

Very true! 

If it's consistent in a week's time I'll start to believe it

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Alexis said:

UKMO and GFS start to disagree at about 100 hours by the looks of it!

This is true.

So analysing GFS beyond 144 is fun, but just that, because we don't know if its barking up the wrong tree.

EC will give us a better idea ,perhaps.

 

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

This sort of reminds me a bit of January, February 2001, when we north of Perth had 60cm of powder snow, and couldn't get to work... The 'Big News' was, of course, that Southern Scotland and parts of England experienced heavy rain!

Freedom and independence! 

I think I'd be less frustrated by Europe hogging the cold and us waiting a little while longer (said non politically by a Welshman). 

So model conclusions so far today, FI is at or before 100 hours? 

Anyone fancy an educated guess they're prepared to commit to written record, regarding eventual outcomes over the next 2 weeks? 

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

This is true.

So analysing GFS beyond 144 is fun, but just that, because we don't know if its barking up the wrong tree.

EC will give us a better idea ,perhaps.

 

Agree to an extent, but the difference is downstream, we can't see what the Ukmo is thinking up stream as of yet.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Which GFS model is the better model? Is is the GFS or parallel GFS? By better I mean more likely to be accurate. Thanks

[Tim Bland]

*cough* ....

[Weather-history]

23 minutes ago, BalderstoneNick said:

Yep

Can deliver ala December 1981 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

*cough* ....

But isn't this in deep deep FI? 

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

*cough* ....

those pesky heights over Iberia still interfere with the path to the promised land