Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[blizzard81]

Absolutely cocked and loaded. 

Edited January 7, 2021 by blizzard81

[Mike Poole]

Mother of god!  The whole damn lot is coming here if GFS 18z T312 is to be believed.  

You can’t stop It from there....half the vortex...but given background signals and SSW knowledge it is quite a likely solution....let’s see what the morning runs bring.

[Stu_London]

Wouldnt be surprised to see some stonking ensembles in the next few runs.

In line with expectation around strat warming events and a good pre-cursor to a possible decent cold spell in the 14-21 day timeframe. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

70cm

I would rarely reply to a gfs snow depth chart especially at that time range but can’t recall that being modelled for here before so   hadn’t really looked at the models much over the last few days since my last post in here but nice to see the runs still popping up. 

[MP-R]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Mother of god!  The whole damn lot is coming here if GFS 18z T312 is to be believed.  

You can’t stop It from there....half the vortex...but given background signals and SSW knowledge it is quite a likely solution....let’s see what the morning runs bring.

What does one have to do to nuke those heights to the south! Get rid of those and that low can dive south and bingo - one very long flow right down from across the Arctic!

[Tim Bland]

Only delivers about 50cm of snaw for Scotland...ya gonna need ya big coat laddie !!

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The heights over the NE in Russian will exert a force on the jet upstream - the net effect would be to create more amplification than a scenario if there was no high pressure, Also the reaction in the models to the SSW & reoccurring phases of SSW will probably mean they underestimate the level & intensity of blocking as well.

With that all in mind as 192 becomes 168 & that becomes 144 & so on then everything will probably sharpen up anyway like it has so far >
The ridge in the atlantic at 138 is nicely timed because it forces some energy SE under the block which then allows some backing of the cold west, as that then subsides & the next one builds so the cold to the North &!east is that bit closer...

Thank you for coming back to me. Love this site, learn soooooooooooooooooooo much from sooooooooooo many. Thank you to @chionomaniac to respond to my question.   I don’t nor haven’t ever made a forecast I just comment on what I see. Those that do I admire and if it isn’t what they thought then hey ho as long as it was reasoned then all good by me. and very importantly we have @CreweCold ramping and let’s be honest he can be quiet pessimistic on occasions.

[Ice Day]

The Para cooking up something similar (but not as spectacular) as the Pub Run at 246

[ICE COLD]

That’s a big block on the para 

[Thunder Snow]

Got to love the 18z, heavy snow for Scotland steadily moving south 

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Absolutely cocked and loaded. 

And there you go. 

[chionomaniac]

In this run, I see the middle third struggling to work out how the end third will materialise.

 

...but we know that the end third is close to what we expect. Seen this before many years ago.

Edited January 7, 2021 by chionomaniac

[Tim Bland]

There’s about a 15c difference between south coast and northern Scotland ...could be a lot of IMBYism over the next week or so! 

[Battleground Snow]

Para over the op here! 

Sorry Scotland

 

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

That’s a big block on the para 

and the heights over Spain have disappeared allowing the south of the UK to join in

 

[Don]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

There’s about a 15c difference between south coast and northern Scotland ...could be a lot of IMBYism over the next week or so! 

Spring lovers will happy in the south with that!

[Stu_London]

Prefer the para - more potential for the trough to dig south, which is needed.

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Para over the op here! 

Sorry Scotland

 

Yep sorry Scots ...don’t forget the Para is beating the GFS at the moment  

Edited January 7, 2021 by Tim Bland

[blizzard81]

We'll all be happy if this happens. 

[Hodgheg]

This is one of the weirdest looking model runs yet. Interesting to notice the 850’s being affecting by the Foehn effect downwind of the Pyrenees. 

[SMU]

We dont want the parallel outcome > thats really poor with weak blocking vis a vee Northerly toppler...

[Tim Bland]

Shirt ensembles..quite a few Now going for a big drop in temps in London early next week...

[Cryosphere.]

18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Mother of god!  The whole damn lot is coming here if GFS 18z T312 is to be believed.  

You can’t stop It from there....half the vortex...but given background signals and SSW knowledge it is quite a likely solution....let’s see what the morning runs bring.

Thats nation-wide standstill material....

[Stu_London]

Trough digs south on the operational eventually but everything too far west. 

Not worth worrying that far out anyway - trend is the friend here. 

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Shirt ensembles..quite a few Now going for a big drop in temps in London early next week...

10C spread at 5 days is extraordinary