Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[Paul]

A new thread, as the cold spell which has been with us since Boxing day draws to a close this weekend. An SSW has occurred this week though, and that may influence things as we move through January, but, the models aren't generally showing any significant cold in the short or medium term at the moment. 

Please only discuss the model output in this thread, and as ever please also keep it friendly and respectful of others views.

Some alternate threads if you don't want to discuss the models:

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[Griff]

11 minutes ago, Griff said:

Your latest zonal installment... 

(no) apologies for double posting... 

[sebastiaan1973]

We see a reduction of positive NAO compared with EC46 of monday. More blocks. Not so many negative NAO tough.

[Man With Beard]

Well after looking at the latest ECM ensembles set, I'd say hold your horses before writing off next week. That Icelandic High is playing havoc with the UK set up, and as a rough figure, about 50% have a frontal snow event Tues/Weds somewhere across the UK as an Atlantic front becomes positively tilted against the Icelandic High - mainly midlands or north but looks the type that could land anywhere. Don't turn off your meteociels just yet, we're not done

Edited January 7, 2021 by Man Without Beard

[sebastiaan1973]

Lots of northern blocking. Latest EC46.

Edited January 7, 2021 by sebastiaan1973

[Vikos]

Latest NOAA/NCEP

[sebastiaan1973]

Colder than average in N and E Europe.

ECMWF | Charts

APPS.ECMWF.INT

 

[damianslaw]

Next week looks a bit of a battleground situation, heights want to build to the north, but the atlantic also wants to move in around the azores heights. We can see evidence of colder air digging in to NE parts at times, there could be marked temp differences between SW and NE. I'll leave it as that, as I fully expect alot of chopping and changing from model run to run in the coming days as they get to grips with outfall of impacts from SSW, which will take a number of days to work out.

[snowking]

Just as a quick note here - IF, and it’s a huge if, we are going to see continuing upgrades in the short-medium term, then the ensemble suites and means are going to be next to useless beyond T+144 due to their lower resolution - if we are indeed headed to shorter term upgrades then the higher resolution Operational and Control runs will lead the way and drag the ensembles behind them.

Im not yet convinced that these shorter term (day 5/6) upgrades will amount to anything, but it wouldn’t be the first time.

I have a vague memory of this happening in either 2012 or 2013 with an Icelandic wedge becoming more and more influential in modelling the nearer we got to T+0 (I think it might have been February 2012 where we saw a week or so cold snap with some frontal snowfall, but it might have been one of the 2013 cold spells instead) and @Steve Murr called it very early on. Whichever event that was produced the snow you can see in my profile picture.
 

Of course since then many such potential upgrades have come and gone without producing much, but something feels a bit different this year.

Edited January 7, 2021 by snowking

[username home]

Tuesday looking like being the most exciting day of 2021 so far for those in the SE...

[SMU]

Hi ^^ There is no such upgrades expected in the 120-144 - The position of the advancing low V 2013 is a long way further south with an angle of SE > NE where as the 2013 low had a position to the North with a movement of NE > SE

The best we do here is -7c straddling the east - 

I cant see a GEM type solution its to progressive.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hi ^^ There is no such upgrades expected in the 120-144 - The position of the advancing low V 2013 is a long way further south with an angle of SE > NE where as the 2013 low had a position to the North with a movement of NE > SE

The best we do here is -7c straddling the east - 

I cant see a GEM type solution its to progressive.

Pity, that would be pretty much guaranteed few inches of snow for you.

[Mike Poole]

10 minutes ago, snowking said:

Just as a quick note here - IF, and it’s a huge if, we are going to see continuing upgrades in the short-medium term, then the ensemble suites and means are going to be next to useless beyond T+144 due to their lower resolution - if we are indeed headed to shorter term upgrades then the higher resolution Operational and Control runs will lead the way and drag the ensembles behind them.

Im not yet convinced that these shorter term (day 5/6) upgrades will amount to anything, but it wouldn’t be the first time.

I have a vague memory of this happening in either 2012 or 2013 with an Icelandic wedge becoming more and more influential in modelling the nearer we got to T+0 (I think it might have been February 2012 where we saw a week or so cold snap with some frontal snowfall, but it might have been one of the 2013 cold spells instead) and @Steve Murr called it very early on. Whichever event that was produced the snow you can see in my profile picture.
 

Of course since then many such potential upgrades have come and gone without producing much, but something feels a bit different this year.

It was Jan 2013, Steve called it spot on if my memory serves.  It was after a SSW, which initially looked to be disappointing, but delivered via a wedge of highish pressure in just the right place.  

Edited January 7, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Lampostwatcher]

8 minutes ago, username home said:

Tuesday looking like being the most exciting day of 2021 so far for those in the SE...

Why's that ?

[Day_9]

That mild hump is getting obliterated with each run.  Also more and more digging down into cold uppers.  Expect more to join the party over the next 5 days.  The non existent vortex is getting a second and more ferocious assault soon so goodnight Atlantic.

 

I am a complete novice.

[Bartlett High]

A good explanation into how SSW's don't always bring cold weather. Although it ends on a very optimistic note.

Edited January 7, 2021 by Bartlett High

[damianslaw]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It was Jan 2013, Steve called it spot on if my memory serves.  It was after a SSW, which initially looked to be disappointing, but delivered via a wedge of highish pressure in just the right place.  

Jan 2013 delivered my last appreciable snowfall, about 8 inches, admittedly it came from an atlantic frontal system at the end of the cold spell, and soon thawed. Most of our heavy snowfalls usually come from such systems.

[northwestsnow]

49 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Lots of northern blocking. Latest EC46.

They look very interesting!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just a quick look at some of those 12z ens which highlight some quite brutal cold developing to the E/NE..Its there if we get to tap in to it again.

Something positive from Marco p. Secondary warming event coming up in the next week...The Vortex still alive for now.But EC is hinting that it could be the end of February before it recovers..now for me,that puts us in the game for some time..

 

 

 

 

[Battleground Snow]

Icon 120 v 126. We might squeeze something out in the medium term, but it's the, 192+ plus range which could be the main course.

 

[Man With Beard]

What a dramatic chart for next Wednesday from the ECM op! Shows the height of the 0C line. Snow in the blues, rain in the greens/yellows, huge temperature difference between the two. 

 

[ICE COLD]

6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Just a quick look at some of those 12z ens which highlight some quite brutal cold developing to the E/NE..Its there if we get to tap in to it again.

Something positive from Marco p. Secondary warming event coming up in the next week...The Vortex still alive for now.But EC is hinting that it could be the end of February before it recovers..now for me,that puts us in the game for some time..

 

 

 

 

Also @Blessed Weatherhas posted a tweet from Amy butler in the strat thread . Interesting that the split vortex   Runs have increased from 8 to 17 out of 75  and they are very difficult to model more than a week out . 

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon 120 v 126. We might squeeze something out in the medium term, but it's the, 192+ plus range which could be the main course.

 

Quite a big improvement on the 12z (which was rubbish, by the way) let’s see if there is an upgrade on the pub run too.  

[That ECM]

Still no one has answered my question  

[DanDorsetUK]

24 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

A good explanation into how SSW's don't always bring cold weather. Although it ends on a very optimistic note.

Great video, certainly looks promising!