South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[danm]

It'll be nice to see snow, but I do find it hard to get excited by a snow to rain event where it all gets washed away by the end of the day. 

[Neilsouth]

20 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Temp has really dropped fast here to 0.7C

How's Ashford counties looking Yamkin?

Brabourne,Smeeth,Sellindge etc

[bluebell]

Just now, danm said:

It'll be nice to see snow, but I do find it hard to get excited by a snow to rain event where it all gets washed away by the end of the day. 

I was thinking the same, not wishing to be a negative ninny but I’d rather have rain to snow and followed by nice solid Siberian type temps so it all stays rock solid for some scary sledge runs...!

[Wilko999]

2 minutes ago, XLNC said:

Temp dropped sharply, dew point already at -1C looking good so far for tonights front pushing from the west.

I'm literally up the road from you in Twyford..Looks like we are right on the borderline of it all but temps lower than expected currently so hoping that may bode well!

[danm]

44 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It’s cold! Had a great long walk along Thames with sis, no place like home.  

Great pictures. Looking forward to the day we can get back out and start enjoying the city again!

[huntso]

8 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

MetO have changed our hours of snow, to a bit of sleet and hours of heavy rain 

I just saw that too, quite pleased really with my daughter having to be out at that time going to work to see her patients.

[Mark]

1 minute ago, huntso said:

I just saw that too, quite pleased really with my daughter having to be out at that time going to work to see her patients.

Give it an hour, it'll be back to 6 hours of double symbol snow!

[Paul Sherman]

2 things to note

GFS not having anything to do with this IS a great Sign - When Canon Fodder says no it will happen, Poor old Goofus will probably pick up on it with its 18z or 00z run - Its in a word Appalling with Mesoscale as I have said before

2nd Point it really it strange here Temps of 3c and Dewpoint of 1c in fact the warmest it has felt since late december and that 1 mild day last weekend maybe the Estuary and the easterly we have warming things around the Estuary always a bad sign for here but there will be winners tomorrow for sure

[Met4Cast]

12z guidance doesn't paint a pretty picture. EA definitely at the greatest risk of seeing some snow but models vary from 1-2cm to 10cm depending on which one you look at, so essentially it's going to come down to looking out the window in the morning. 

SE areas I think likely to see very localised & limited accumulations, the usual spots, N Kent Downs etc being favourite. Most in the region will probably see some falling snow tomorrow morning but models have rather backed away from meaningful accumulations now, something they agree on for the most part.

[Norfolk_N_chance]

Just speaking to the family in Norway, can't even go there for my snow fix!

If we get anything from the Northeast you can see its rather cold in that region at present 

 

 

[Neilsouth]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

12z guidance doesn't paint a pretty picture. EA definitely at the greatest risk of seeing some snow but models vary from 1-2cm to 10cm depending on which one you look at, so essentially it's going to come down to looking out the window in the morning. 

SE areas I think likely to see very localised & limited accumulations, the usual spots, N Kent Downs etc being favourite. Most in the region will probably see some falling snow tomorrow morning but models have rather backed away from meaningful accumulations now, something they agree on for the most part.

So basically.... It's a nowcast situation tomorrow as they don't have a clue :D

[bluebell]

I noticed quite marked temperature differences today in quite a small area, 3 deg when I left home at 1030, arrived 20 miles away in Eastbourne and it was 7 deg, return journey it peaked at 8deg in St Leonard’s and only 15 mins later down to 4deg at home, only about 50m difference in altitude as well. Perhaps my car thermometer is a bit dodgy..?

[Hotspur62]

Temperature reached a maximum of 3.1 here in locksbottom but already dropped to -0.2.Really not expecting anything here even at 300ft asl and as others have said wish it was the other way round and a rain to snow event and it would stick around.I am more worried about next Tuesday and Wednesday when it looks like yet more heavy rain and temperatures ranging from 7-9 so quite a big milder than what we have had so far.

 

Good luck to those who are in amber zone and pray for a miracle and a stalled front and we stay cold but no model is showing that so by this time tomorrow anyone who has had a covering will probably have seen it disappear quickly.Not being pessimistic just realistic and hope that the SE Have their turn either later in the month or in February

[Daniel*]

Latest Euro4 an upgrade for London and Home Counties delays warm front a bit so possibly remaining as snow in London area till 10am this morning looked around 8am or shortly after. Would increase risk of it not just wetting ground...

 

[Daniel*]

8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

12z guidance doesn't paint a pretty picture. EA definitely at the greatest risk of seeing some snow but models vary from 1-2cm to 10cm depending on which one you look at, so essentially it's going to come down to looking out the window in the morning. 

SE areas I think likely to see very localised & limited accumulations, the usual spots, N Kent Downs etc being favourite. Most in the region will probably see some falling snow tomorrow morning but models have rather backed away from meaningful accumulations now, something they agree on for the most part.

The HARMONIE and EURO4 12z both delay warm front? I don’t care about what GFS is showing. 

[Kentspur]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Latest Euro4 an upgrade for London and Home Counties delays warm front a bit so possibly remaining as snow in London area till 10am this morning looked around 8am or shortly after. Would increase risk of it not just wetting ground...

 

I don't know what to believe was the Euro4 any good in the last potential snowfalls that failed? I'm pretty sure inland a few miles away from our thames stretch there will be snow but still no sure for us with other models not supporting this! I really hope its right

[NewEra21]

ECM for tomorrow

[Met4Cast]

8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The HARMONIE and EURO4 12z both delay warm front? I don’t care about what GFS is showing. 

UKV, ICON, AROME all say no. 

EURO4 consistently over-estimates snow accumulation to a ridiculous level, it has snow falling in Somerset overnight lmao. HARMONIE is OK, but again seems to have the same issue as the EURO4 with overestimating snowfall amounts and seems to be slow to catch on, it was the last model to ditch the idea of snow last week. I never look at the GFS PPN charts.

So.. when the only two models going for it are the two that often overestimate snow, what conclusion should be drawn on the potential..

EURO4/HARMONIE are both outliers compared with all other outputs. 

Edited January 15, 2021 by Met4Cast

[lassie23]

11 minutes ago, Norfolk_N_chance said:

Just speaking to the family in Norway, can't even go there for my snow fix!

If we get anything from the Northeast you can see its rather cold in that region at present 

 

 

at least it is sunny

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I don't know what to believe was the Euro4 any good in the last potential snowfalls that failed? I'm pretty sure inland a few miles away from our thames stretch there will be snow but still no sure for us with other models not supporting this! I really hope its right

It was awful. 

If the EURO4 had been right we would have been buried several times already this winter.

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, bluebell said:

I noticed quite marked temperature differences today in quite a small area, 3 deg when I left home at 1030, arrived 20 miles away in Eastbourne and it was 7 deg, return journey it peaked at 8deg in St Leonard’s and only 15 mins later down to 4deg at home, only about 50m difference in altitude as well. Perhaps my car thermometer is a bit dodgy..?

Mine warms up after driving and parked for a short while - as soon as I start driving again the temperature starts going back down.

[Mark wheeler]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The HARMONIE and EURO4 12z both delay warm front? I don’t care about what GFS is showing. 

Hopefully it will be a case of sweet Harmonie 

 

[snowbob]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Hopefully it will be a case of sweet Harmonie 

 

Great oldskool tune

[john mac1]

35 minutes ago, danm said:

It'll be nice to see snow, but I do find it hard to get excited by a snow to rain event where it all gets washed away by the end of the day. 

Pole hill and dawn mate.

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

ECM for tomorrow

Slight upgrade there with amounts in Kent, Herts, Essex ect. 

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