South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[scrat]

It's been much, much colder here today than forecast.....brrrr!  Tonight and tomorrow morning look interesting, may well set my alarm so that I can witness, briefly, a winter wonderland, before the rain/thaw/flooding follows!  Enjoy any lamp post watching 

[Easily sled]

Still looks a bit marginal for us West Londoners tomorrow, some wet snow for a few hours I think. Nice to see nonetheless, will be keeping the sledge in the cupboard for now! 

[Speedbird]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Do we have a Rush Hour on a Saturday morning in Lockdown ? Hmmm

Make no mistake - t'will be rain falling upon the tarmac of Rayleigh Road

[East Kent Snow Desert]

10 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Oh yes. I remember it recently in Jan 2017 with slush here and a good cm or two around Herne/Wildwood. Mad really how much of a difference there is. At least a southerly breeze with this front might make the moderation less so for the snow which I'm hoping for really. The amount of times sea moderation has let me down is frustrating. Cooling down nicely though with 1.9°C

Yes for once this set up might be quite beneficial for us on the north coast of the county if we get up early enough that is. Just a shame it won't be around for long

[Jamie M]

2 minutes ago, GaryPH said:

Yes for once this set up might be quite beneficial for us on the north coast of the county if we get up early enough that is. Just a shame it won't be around for long

Good thing I'm the one with the 4 am alarm then. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

HARMONIE 12z looks the most promising for tomorrow of the 12z runs so far:

[Paul Sherman]

6 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

Make no mistake - t'will be rain falling upon the tarmac of Rayleigh Road

Luckily I have an errand to run in Danbury Park tomorrow morning lol

[alexisj9]

19 minutes ago, GaryPH said:

Yep - just the 60m too!  I used to live nearer the town and worked in Canterbury and lost count of the times when there was nothing on the ground at home but by the time I got to Herne/Wildwood there was a decent covering.  

 

18 minutes ago, Spraggyy said:

So just got off the phone to my mate who works in KCC supporting vulnerable people they have been told to be prepared for the orange warning to be extended into north west Kent, apparently a few in the KCC spoke to the company that supplies forecasts and seem to think it may stall and the cold air may be stronger than first thought..... but this is just complete hear say and they could just be preparing for worse case as they failed to put out a warning yesterday for rain and flooding for most areas is what people seem to think according to him

i don’t believe a word of it personally 

We'll watch and see, the big if is, if it stalls, the first front just like last time, is a warm front, the cold would stay, then the cold front catches up, and ends up occluding the warm front, that could be good for us, but not what's expected. Something to watch tomorrow, if the warm front goes through, snow to rain, if it doesn't, much more ppn, which we don't need, but it could well be mostly white.

[Met4Cast]

26 minutes ago, Spraggyy said:

So just got off the phone to my mate who works in KCC supporting vulnerable people they have been told to be prepared for the orange warning to be extended into north west Kent, apparently a few in the KCC spoke to the company that supplies forecasts and seem to think it may stall and the cold air may be stronger than first thought..... but this is just complete hear say and they could just be preparing for worse case as they failed to put out a warning yesterday for rain and flooding for most areas is what people seem to think according to him

i don’t believe a word of it personally 

Not a single model shows anything close to a stalling weather front so I'd be surprised if that was the case.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

8 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

HARMONIE 12z looks the most promising for tomorrow of the 12z runs so far:

It's playing catch up with the EURO4 by the looks of it... 

 

Earlier runs this morning were poor for snow chances.. 

 

EURO4 18z will be the decider.. Icon still having non of it really 

 

Incredible temp drop here.. 

15:54 temp 3c DP 2.4c 

16:59 temp 0c DP  - 0.6

[Eagle Eye]

Looking at the close GFS I find it highly likely that directional cold(knowing the future direction and so wether it will be high thickness or low thickness and therefore able to predict big events where normally the model turns a day or a few days before normal) and so I find it highly likely that we will get the Beast from the East within a week or so. 

Tommorrow's runs are crucial for the 20th intercept because most Beast from the East's are called 4 to 3 days before from what I remember of former beasts. 

In the meanwhile enjoy the sunset. 

Edit

Has @Paul Sherman commited to the 25th or changed it to earlier or later. 

Edited January 15, 2021 by Sheldon Cooper

[BLS]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

It's playing catch up with the EURO4 by the looks of it... 

 

Earlier runs this morning were poor for snow chances.. 

 

EURO4 18z will be the decider.. Icon still having non of it really 

 

Incredible temp drop here.. 

15:54 temp 3c DP 2.4c 

16:59 temp 0c DP  - 0.6

What time is the Euro4 ?

[Southender]

9 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Luckily I have an errand to run in Danbury Park tomorrow morning lol

Essential sledging?

[BLS]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Not a single model shows anything close to a stalling weather front so I'd be surprised if that was the case.

That’s why I don’t believe it 

[Paul Sherman]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

Essential sledging?

Yep the Sledge has found its way into my car somehow - Poor thing not been out since March 2018

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Not a single model shows anything close to a stalling weather front so I'd be surprised if that was the case.

You know the cliché term 'Models underestimating the strength of the high pressure block to the east, so weather fronts make less inroads'... Lets hope for that this time aye, wouldn't bet on it though!

[Ben Sainsbury]

3 minutes ago, Spraggyy said:

What time is the Euro4 ?

I believe it will start rolling out at half 5.

[Southender]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yep the Sledge has found its way into my car somehow - Poor thing not been out since March 2018

 

Nice. Belton hills early doors should do the job worst case!?....unless you are thinking wrong side of marginal here....

Edited January 15, 2021 by Southender

[East Kent Snow Desert]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

 

We'll watch and see, the big if is, if it stalls, the first front just like last time, is a warm front, the cold would stay, then the cold front catches up, and ends up occluding the warm front, that could be good for us, but not what's expected. Something to watch tomorrow, if the warm front goes through, snow to rain, if it doesn't, much more ppn, which we don't need, but it could well be mostly white.

Thanks for explaining. I wondered why the MO video showed snow an hour or so after the initial band came through and not immediately. We're certainly due a bit of luck after the 'wrong side of marginal' events in recent weeks!

[Coopsy]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Yes.. The cold air is in situ now.. Its probably under cutting a warmer layer above.. 

Tomorrow there is 2 fronts a cold front and a warm front.. The cold front itroduces the  PPN and doesn't or shouldn't mix the Temps out.. Hence snow risk.. However as the warm front catches up as the cold front slows down against the cold air in situ to the east it will begin to mix the colder air out and turn PPN to rain 

My basic meteorological brain is struggling in this. If the cold front stalls and a warm front catches up, I thought usually the warm air would rise and sit above the cold. This would then stall too, creating a warm type occluded front. Result could mean all snow as the main warmer airmass wouldn’t pass through? 

Edited January 15, 2021 by Coopsy

[Paul Sherman]

Just now, Southender said:

Nice. Belton hills early doors should do the job worst case!?

Really worried about that close to the Estuary tbh - Could literally be 9cm at Chelmsford and 1cm or slush at Southend its that mad

[Nick F]

Can see East Anglia gets the lion's share of snow accumulations by 11z tomorrow on 12z UKV, though imagine it would be melting by then, North Downs too further south. EA has the coldest air for longest, being further east, even lower levels inland, and with less mixing than further west where the breeze will pick up.

8am

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

My basic meteorological brain is struggling in this. If the cold front stalls then I thought usually the warm front would rise and sit above the cold front and stall creating a warm type occluded front. meaning it would be all snow as the main warmer airmass wouldn’t pass through? 

The first front is warm, the catch up front is cold.

[Paul Sherman]

1 minute ago, Coopsy said:

My basic meteorological brain is struggling in this. If the cold front stalls then I thought usually the warm front would rise and sit above the cold front and stall creating a warm type occluded front. meaning it would be all snow as the main warmer airmass wouldn’t pass through? 

Yes the front the other day that dumped on Yorkshire was essentially a Warm Front that ground to a halt and the cold front crashed into the backside of it making it an Occluded front, where it Occluded the Precip went crazy around the Leeds area and higher ground and it ground to a halt giving about 10cm more snow than was forecast

[Daniel*]

It’s cold! Had a great long walk along Thames with sis, no place like home.