South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’d say snow is more likely than freezing rain. With air / ground temps above freezing...how is the rain going to freeze ?

Probably freezing sleet

Current 3pm data

3.1C

2.8D   No movement since 1230

Edited January 4, 2021 by Steve Murr

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

I’d say snow is more likely than freezing rain. With air / ground temps above freezing...how is the rain going to freeze ?

The met office forecast mentioned that there may be some layers near the surface near freezing, which might support freezing rain - but I think you might be right - the ground is probably to warm. 

[lottiekent]

19 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Hi Sheldon if you follow where the arrows are pointing you’ll see wind is coming from a cold northeasterly direction not southerly. And DPs are supportive for snow <0C if that verified we’d have a higher chance of seeing snow than next 48 hours.

-3 dew point, yes please. 
 

Went to the supermarket in my lunch hour and there was the odd ice pellet on the windscreen in amongst the relentless rain. Either that or my wishful thinking is generating hallucinations

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Whatever happened to the cold but sunny by day/foggy and frosty by night high pressure systems that used to visit? Would be very nice now. Plenty of places need to dry out after recent flooding. Such a shame about conditions being the wrong side of marginal for snow at the moment, but unfortunately the air coming from the continent just isn’t cold enough with most places above freezing.

And I’ve tested positive for coronavirus again, after a negative test just before Christmas. So annoyed with it all now, but I suppose it could be worse. 

Couldn't agree more...just what I was thinking whilst taking the dog for a walk 1/2 hour ago...we see so little sun whether mild or cold over winter and now days experience very little cold high pressures with at least a few days of clear sunny weather with frosts persisting, there just gone!

Hope your feeling better? even though testing positive...are you back in the UK?

[SMU]

Remember overnight thurs into Friday still looks ok> improved potential today.

[Stu_London]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Probably freezing sleet

Current 3pm data

3.1C

2.8D   No movement since 1230

Dewpoints have been falling to the north and west of the region during the afternoon. 

We could probably do with a pause in PPN to allow some dryer air in - possibly some hope as the streamer seems to running out of steam.

[john mac1]

Skies clearing here in Chingford 

[Paul Sherman]

Yes Stu and Daniel both right with regards to Dewpoints

We tend to get more showers of Snow in March and April (Eg Early Spring) with temps as high as 6c or 7c when the Dewpoint is at 0c or lower due to 2 factors (Much Colder SST's by that Stage) or much drier air from the North or North East. 

I have know heavy snow showers before when the temp is at 6c before, the only problem with this type of set-up is the ground is not cold enough to sustain the snow on the ground for that long. A very common set up is for Snow showers to put 1cm on the ground only for it to be thawed and melted within a few hours due to the ground not cold enough.

Am sticking to my thoughts that if you want to see Snow its the North and South Downs and the Surrey Hills 

[Paul Sherman]

6 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Dewpoints have been falling to the north and west of the region during the afternoon. 

We could probably do with a pause in PPN to allow some dryer air in - possibly some hope as the streamer seems to running out of steam.

Much more typical looking NE Showery pattern here now, patches of Blue and you can see the Individual showers now and not a mass of grey so things looking up 

[SMU]

7 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Dewpoints have been falling to the north and west of the region during the afternoon. 

We could probably do with a pause in PPN to allow some dryer air in - possibly some hope as the streamer seems to running out of steam.

Yes thats why the GFS pixel of snow was left 1 pixel of kent & it was the kent / sussex grid because of the DP sinkage!

2.9 / 2.5  

[SMU]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Much more typical looking NE Showery pattern here now, patches of Blue and you can see the Individual showers now and not a mass of grey so things looking up 

yes  Better profiles for snow > taller clouds & heavier showers > better convection & insabiiity!

Edited January 4, 2021 by Steve Murr

[southbank]

the mini Thames streamer of Jan 03 can anyone remember what the 850 were that came across that early morning into lunchtime to give the largest central london snowfall since 1991?

 

[Stu_London]

2 minutes ago, southbank said:

the mini Thames streamer of Jan 03 can anyone remember what the 850 were that came across that early morning into lunchtime to give the largest central london snowfall since 1991?

 

I struggle to remember the previous day sometimes - let alone 18 years ago!!

[yamkin]

2 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Whatever happened to the cold but sunny by day/foggy and frosty by night high pressure systems that used to visit? Would be very nice now. Plenty of places need to dry out after recent flooding. Such a shame about conditions being the wrong side of marginal for snow at the moment, but unfortunately the air coming from the continent just isn’t cold enough with most places above freezing.

And I’ve tested positive for coronavirus again, after a negative test just before Christmas. So annoyed with it all now, but I suppose it could be worse. 
 

Sorry to hear about you testing positive again for COVID. Unfortunately, people can catch COVID again even though we have been told the opposite! 

I have also got COVID symptoms and posted my home test kit this morning.

To see some snow will cheer us up 

[southbank]

Just now, Stu_London said:

I struggle to remember the previous day sometimes - let alone 18 years ago!!

 very true

[NewEra21]

Dew points definitely do seem to be on the drop now, also 850s should be dropping this evening/tonight. 

May a slight window of opportunity starting to open up..... We shall see!

Edited January 4, 2021 by NewEra21

[SMU]

5 minutes ago, southbank said:

the mini Thames streamer of Jan 03 can anyone remember what the 850 were that came across that early morning into lunchtime to give the largest central london snowfall since 1991?

 

-10 on the nose

[danm]

7 minutes ago, southbank said:

the mini Thames streamer of Jan 03 can anyone remember what the 850 were that came across that early morning into lunchtime to give the largest central london snowfall since 1991?

 

Sub -8c 850's. Although that day was snow all the way with zero marginality, so dew points would have been sub zero the entire time. 

 

Edited January 4, 2021 by danm

[pinball wizard]

Been raining all day in Ipswich, just had first shower with sleet.

[NewEra21]

Just now, pinball wizard said:

Been raining all day in Ipswich, just had first shower with sleet.

Maybe a sign of those lower DPs and 850s starting to kick in.

[Daniel*]

My DP is really starting to fall now lowering in from NW.

 

12:50pm > 3:30pm

Edited January 4, 2021 by Daniel*

[MAF]

1 hour ago, snow raven said:

One word sums up today's weather, and that's crap.

but whats the word?  

[NewEra21]

Dew points even by the Norfolk coast have dropped quite nicely, hopefully a sign of things to come for more of us later tonight.

 

[jright35]

GFS 12z starting to role out! What stories will they produce this time

[Bazza118]

The temp actually rose to 4.1c and dp of 4c late morning but it's now on the way down. Temp currently 3.4c and dp 3c, and the wind definately feels chillier than first thing this morning.