South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[pinball wizard]

19 minutes ago, paget said:

I do hate to be the pessimist but I haven’t seen a flake for 2 years now and every chart I see appears to miss us out! (Farnham, Surrey) I must admit I’ve loved a cold spell but It’s been such a hard year is it too much to ask to see at least a bit of snow fall!?? 
 

my mum loved snow and I promised we’d attempt to get her out in it (she was almost bedridden) now she’s gone I’d like to be able to go out in it for her! 
still, this time next year fingers crossed Scotland!! 
 
sorry (feeling a bit fed up tonight!!)

I'm sure you'll get the chance and enjoy it when you do. It's been a frustrating winter for us in the South East, especially so seeing others get what we want but that's life. Makes it all the more enjoyable when it does come for us

[Guest]

1 hour ago, jright35 said:

How reliable was this chart in the last cold spell out of interest?

Sorry for late reply, not to sure how reliable. If it's still showing it tomorrow will be a good sign as its for this Friday.

[Polaris]

2 hours ago, E17boy said:

Four possible scenarios on this

1 - the rain could eventually turn more and more to sleet and snow and as a stalled front will keep us in the precipitation untill it fizzles out or could clear west or southwest with the push of colder air from the east.

2 - the rain could stay as rain and not change to snow or sleet due to lack of low dew points and fizzle out 

3 - another possibility is that the rain does not get this Far East due to colder air having more push and stalling the front further west

4  - Another possibility and we do not want this. The front could pass over us and east if the push of cold air is weak leaving us mild.

so whole load of outcomes could happen

No2 most likely 

Lincolnshire northwards across all models average. 

[SLEETY]

the gfs p run earlier was excellent for the SE,the ecm not so good,still not seen a flake here this winter,lets hope the gfs p  is on the money 

[Tom Jarvis]

At 126h!!!!!

[winterfreak]

So, ahem, I struggle to keep up with the actual trend in the MOD thread. Up one minute, down the next. So, does anyone know in roughly which direction we’re going? Still a possibility of cold and maybe some of the white gold we chase so diligently?!? 

Edited January 11, 2021 by winterfreak

[Icebox]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

the gfs p run earlier was excellent for the SE,the ecm not so good,still not seen a flake here this winter,lets hope the gfs p  is on the money 

Nothing since 2018, and to be honest that was just the merest icing sugar dusting.

[dallas]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

the gfs p run earlier was excellent for the SE,the ecm not so good,still not seen a flake here this winter,lets hope the gfs p  is on the money 

Is the GFS p run available for all?

[yamkin]

If this pulls off, it will be about 10 hours of non stop heavy 

[SHM040519]

We all know that each day before the weekend it will be downgraded and 99% of us will be stuck with our favourite thing...cold rain!

[Sparky68]

5 hours ago, yamkin said:

If this pulls off, it will be about 10 hours of non stop heavy 

Would be fantastic , might even get a bit of that up here in Cambs

[Biggin]

Squall line has arrived. v heavy rain

[snowblind]

19 minutes ago, Ben Capee McInnes said:

We all know that each day before the weekend it will be downgraded and 99% of us will be stuck with our favourite thing...cold rain!

That's exactly what the met office are expecting. Rain tomorrow, Thursday and Saturday and highs of 5 on the latest text forecast.

Yesterday they mentioned the possibility of it turning to sleet and snow but not today so I would say the odds of any snow for us over the next few days are very slim.

[Blessed Weather]

7 hours ago, dallas said:

Is the GFS p run available for all?

You can view the GFS parallel (GFSv16) on Meteociel:
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?runpara=1

[PiscesStar]

2 minutes ago, snowblind said:

That's exactly what the met office are expecting. Rain tomorrow, Thursday and Saturday and highs of 5 on the latest text forecast.

Yesterday they mentioned the possibility of it turning to sleet and snow but not today so I would say the odds of any snow for us over the next few days are very slim.

I woukd agree

It's jot cold enough to 

[TROY]

The rain is back here this morning, no frost now, we had a good frost in the ground last week which was nice. On the plus side as the days get longer the evenings are starting to get much lighter now, sunset today at  4.19. If the cloud breaks we might get to see it. Take care everyone and good health to you all.

[SHM040519]

Does anyone have the charts for this morning! Are they as good for the end of the week?

[lottiekent]

6 minutes ago, Ben Capee McInnes said:

Does anyone have the charts for this morning! Are they as good for the end of the week?

Someone on the mod chart thread was just saying the latest fax shows the stall line further west. Not sure if that favours EA and the SE or not. Was just going to see if I could find the charts to see.

8c here as expected this morning and the squall line about to hit.

Edit: fax chart for Thursday midday does have the front further west, but, as the 528 dam line is many miles to the east, not sure we would see snow anyway?

Edited January 12, 2021 by lottiekent
Added chart

[SHM040519]

2 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Someone on the mod chart thread was just saying the latest fax shows the stall line further west. Not sure if that favours EA and the SE or not. Was just going to see if I could find the charts to see.

8c here as expected this morning and the squall line about to hit.

I dare not go into that thread. It’s a minefield! Will see how today goes! Wet and dull here too. Definitely prefer cold crisp morning. Now to prep for online lessons!

[alexisj9]

6 hours ago, yamkin said:

If this pulls off, it will be about 10 hours of non stop heavy 

Well only if it goes ESE otherwise southwesterly's will get in the way. SE might be to sharp to keep the band over us.

[bluebell]

28 minutes ago, Ben Capee McInnes said:

I dare not go into that thread. It’s a minefield! Will see how today goes! Wet and dull here too. Definitely prefer cold crisp morning. Now to prep for online lessons!

Yes to this! The model thread is a minefield of confusion for ‘too lazy and thick to learn how to interpret the models’ person like me! And indeed the cold crispy mornings  and photos we all shared seem like a distant memory, really not a massive fan of this cold rain and slate grey skies malarkey. Sorry to be negative, I have a sore arm from the COVID vaccine I had yesterday evening obviously making me a grumpy bum..! 
Enjoy this lovely grey day everyone!

[lawrenk]

I think where the mod thread is a bit confusing at the moment is that the mods look pretty exciting for the Midlands north, hence some of the “boom” posts, but I honestly can’t see us (certainly me near the south coast) getting much from this set up, though it could always change of course.

[Hotspur62]

Although still 8 days till 20th the models do seem to be trending to a midlands north affair in relation to snow events that may arise.As alluded to last night the heights to the south over Iberia seem to be a barrier in allowing the cold to advance southwards.Still time for things to go right for us southerners but we need to reverse the trends of last couple of days.

[Eagle Eye]

What a birthday that would be

Meanwhile in the land of nod. 

I see they've taken the m5 block into account. 

[southbank]

10 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:

Although still 8 days till 20th the models do seem to be trending to a midlands north affair in relation to snow events that may arise.As alluded to last night the heights to the south over Iberia seem to be a barrier in allowing the cold to advance southwards.Still time for things to go right for us southerners but we need to reverse the trends of last couple of days.

agreed and worringly that fits in with the METO long range forecast - signal seems to be for us down south to have to much influence from Iberian high which would be devasting to us wanting a cold snap