South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Eagle Eye]

Yet again Snowing in Scotland

Perhaps we could have some in a few weeks or so. 

[Snowman31]

31 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Our East Anglia friends in particular should keep an eye out later this week, ECM 06z shifting cold boundary west. 

That looks like it might affect London as well? 

[Polaris]

2 hours ago, Gazza said:

I'm only a lurker on the MAD thread or any other thread to be honest but more than ever I go straight to the date on any chart posted now and if it's 5 or more days away I tend to ignore it.  The good stuff is so often 8+ days away but hopefully the effects of the SSW start to come into a more reliable range this week.  

Day 10 is always a boom chart. 
 

Remember the day 10 charts pre this cold spell just gone. We were supposed to be buried with some posters comparing it to 2010 - it produced Dandruff here with any heavier ppn falling as rain. With upper air temps to warm for falling snow. 
 

Maybe the SSW could favour something a bit more fruity. 

[E17boy]

Hi peeps

Hope everyone is well and safe. A milder run of weather at the moment been cloudy here in Walthamstow and that wind is picking up as well. We got some damp rainy weather to come tonight and tomorrow. I dare comment on what's going to happen for the rest of this week and into next week. we are in a knife edge situation and the situation is changing by day. There is some really cold air building up in Europe so it's the battles of all the Atlantic and the beast.

I am at the moment sitting at the edge of my seat will we strike it this time for our region or will we be so close yet so far. Our fate is now with how the blocks and weather systems set  up in the next few days it is a knife edge situation. I have one last request. Dear winter we love you so much and we wait all year for your arrival. Us here in the Southeast are crying our hearts out for you to send us some snow and cold. Please don't let us down winter our wait has been so long.

Heres me with the rest of us waiting on the edge to see what fate the heavens have awaiting for us.

fingers crossed it will come

stay safe all

kind regards

[Tom Jarvis]

How much of a shift west on the front later in the week do we need for Sussex to get a chance of seeing snow? 

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

How much of a shift west on the front later in the week do we need for Sussex to get a chance of seeing snow? 

Take ARPEGE not a huge westerly correction. The good things is most models are now bringing East Anglia into equation, pressure trending higher in Scandi helping cold back west.

[PLANET THANET]

8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Take ARPEGE not a huge westerly correction. The good things is most models are now bringing East Anglia into equation, pressure trending higher in Scandi helping cold back west.

looks like Kent misses out again, ah well getting used to it now but good luck to others

[Eagle Eye]

The SSW has made everyone keep an eye on it, who knows what could happen with it at this point it is a Soap Opera of will it won't it drama. 

 

[E17boy]

5 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

looks like Kent misses out again, ah well getting used to it now but good luck to others

Could quite possibly be further corrections down the line. The situation is changing so fast it's just a matter of keeping up with the updates. Fingers crossed we all come into play here in our region we have waited long enough.

[PLANET THANET]

2 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Could quite possibly be further corrections down the line. The situation is changing so fast it's just a matter of keeping up with the updates. Fingers crossed we all come into play here in our region we have waited long enough.

I do agree but I am also under no illusions how difficult it is to get the right conditions for snow in east kent next to the sea, perhaps we will be lucky this winter

[Jamie M]

7 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

I do agree but I am also under no illusions how difficult it is to get the right conditions for snow in east kent next to the sea, perhaps we will be lucky this winter

Takes some good synoptic setups that we don't get very often to get at least a cm or two on the coast with our little portion from Ramsgate - Faversham getting barely anything in events where others get a good covering. The events of the 12th of Jan 2019 come to mind with slush here and a cm or two in Canterbury. A good ENE'ly causing a streamer is our best bets for something. A little falling snow does me good anyway, when we get it. Hopes up though! 

Edited January 11, 2021 by Jamie M

[E17boy]

5 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

I do agree but I am also under no illusions how difficult it is to get the right conditions for snow in east kent next to the sea, perhaps we will be lucky this winter

Fingers crossed mate hope you don't miss out. It is one of those situations we could be on the edge of getting something spectacular, but then again it could all fall apart and we are back to square one. Nerve straining weather watching this week

[East Kent Snow Desert]

22 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

I do agree but I am also under no illusions how difficult it is to get the right conditions for snow in east kent next to the sea, perhaps we will be lucky this winter

I'm old enough to remember the 80s snow events in Thanet. The words 'marginal on the coasts' was rarely mentioned on TV forecasts from what I recall. Those days are long gone I'm afraid

[Hotspur62]

We really need the Scandi High to strengthen a tad more and have a correction of about 30 miles or so further west so we can get some colder air back into Essex Kent and Sussex.do I think it will happen?unlikely atmprobably 10% chance.I do think mid Norfolk northwards are in with a better chance so fingers crossed for them
 

I just get the feeling over the last 24-36 hours that parts of the SE maybe unlucky if this cold period arrives from around the 20th.The met office,although much maligned on the longer range forecasts(more for their ambiguous wording and poor grammar as much as anything else) have been quite consistent for a fair few days that if there are to be significant snowfalls then they will be for central and northern areas.If this was to be the case then I think those north and west of London would be best placed with sadly the rest of us seeing probably more rain rather than snow.That is me with my pessimist hat on.Conversely,if we could get a Scandi high to develop first and lower heights in Iberia then we could come up trumps and get winds from a north east quadrant and that would put all of us in the South East in the game for wintry hazards.

Whatever happens fascinating watching things evolve and really do hope that the vast majority on here get what they desire in the next couple weeks

[Guest]

Rather tasty for our zone!

[warrenb]

So good news at 192, they didn't phase, so we now have a runner under the high to the north.

[jright35]

32 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Rather tasty for our zone!

How reliable was this chart in the last cold spell out of interest?

[E17boy]

27 minutes ago, warrenb said:

So good news at 192, they didn't phase, so we now have a runner under the high to the north.

That is excellent we need that as energy underneath the high to stop it from sinking or flattening out may the trends in the right direction continue. We are still not out of the woods yet it could still all go poops but keeping my optimism up and hoping whilst at the same time keeping my hopes to a controllable level. Fingers crossed this time we will get it

[Tom Jarvis]

What happened to @Steve Murr? Good charts this evening. 

[Polaris]

14 minutes ago, jright35 said:

How reliable was this chart in the last cold spell out of interest?

At +48 it had all of our region in snowfall 1st week of Jan along with a meto warning. 
 

Take note when it’s +12 only 

[E17boy]

42 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Rather tasty for our zone!

Four possible scenarios on this

1 - the rain could eventually turn more and more to sleet and snow and as a stalled front will keep us in the precipitation untill it fizzles out or could clear west or southwest with the push of colder air from the east.

2 - the rain could stay as rain and not change to snow or sleet due to lack of low dew points and fizzle out 

3 - another possibility is that the rain does not get this Far East due to colder air having more push and stalling the front further west

4  - Another possibility and we do not want this. The front could pass over us and east if the push of cold air is weak leaving us mild.

so whole load of outcomes could happen

[pinball wizard]

18 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Four possible scenarios on this

1 - the rain could eventually turn more and more to sleet and snow and as a stalled front will keep us in the precipitation untill it fizzles out or could clear west or southwest with the push of colder air from the east.

2 - the rain could stay as rain and not change to snow or sleet due to lack of low dew points and fizzle out 

3 - another possibility is that the rain does not get this Far East due to colder air having more push and stalling the front further west

4  - Another possibility and we do not want this. The front could pass over us and east if the push of cold air is weak leaving us mild.

so whole load of outcomes could happen

Good summary of options there, lets hope it's not the last one that plays out.

[alexisj9]

36 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Four possible scenarios on this

1 - the rain could eventually turn more and more to sleet and snow and as a stalled front will keep us in the precipitation untill it fizzles out or could clear west or southwest with the push of colder air from the east.

2 - the rain could stay as rain and not change to snow or sleet due to lack of low dew points and fizzle out 

3 - another possibility is that the rain does not get this Far East due to colder air having more push and stalling the front further west

4  - Another possibility and we do not want this. The front could pass over us and east if the push of cold air is weak leaving us mild.

so whole load of outcomes could happen

Yep and this is just Wednesday/Thursday, any sense of looking further when that is not yet resolved.

[lawrenk]

44 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

What happened to @Steve Murr? Good charts this evening. 

Personally, I think, at least for those of us in the south of the region, it may be a case of watching those further north getting pasted again and again whilst we have to content ourselves with cold rain. We just don’t seem to be able to catch a break this winter.

[paget]

I do hate to be the pessimist but I haven’t seen a flake for 2 years now and every chart I see appears to miss us out! (Farnham, Surrey) I must admit I’ve loved a cold spell but It’s been such a hard year is it too much to ask to see at least a bit of snow fall!?? 
 

my mum loved snow and I promised we’d attempt to get her out in it (she was almost bedridden) now she’s gone I’d like to be able to go out in it for her! 
still, this time next year fingers crossed Scotland!! 
 
sorry (feeling a bit fed up tonight!!)