South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[stainesbloke]

27 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

God forbid I bet if I said it looked like a raging blizzard I would have got a pat on the back and a blue Peter badge

Haha, no doubt. There may well be raging blizzards by the end of the month. Nice to get some balanced views, so keep posting! 

[snowrye]

Whenever im feeling down, I just pop in the mad thread, and within minutes, im feeling a whole lot better. That place is unreal, you read a post, the next ice age is coming, the post immediately after, it's time to get the bbq out.

[Zak M]

How tonight's midnight sky is looking:

I tried to get a zoomed in picture of the Sandy Heath Mast and clouds above it but a whistling sound in the grass that sounded very much like footsteps has startled me for the rest of the night.

[snowrye]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

How tonight's midnight sky is looking:

I tried to get a zoomed in picture of the Sandy Heath Mast and clouds above it but a whistling sound in the grass that sounded very much like footsteps has startled me for the rest of the night.

I'd be in full camo gear at this time of night, some nutters about

[alexisj9]

6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

How tonight's midnight sky is looking:

I tried to get a zoomed in picture of the Sandy Heath Mast and clouds above it but a whistling sound in the grass that sounded very much like footsteps has startled me for the rest of the night.

Probably a hedgehog actually, when something's near, before they role into a ball, they stand still, but sort rustle there spines in a rythmic pattern, sort of sounds like someone walking through dry grass, in an effort to scare.

Next time slowly look for the sound, and take a snap, if you get the chance.

[Sparky68]

A few from our walk on Saturday 

 

Edited January 11, 2021 by Sparky68

[lottiekent]

Morning

Up to 4.9c this morning, like a heatwave

Mod thread seems happier this morning, though there is a lot of self congratulating going on between several members taking up a lot of posts. You can tell when someone is still newer to the thread when they start talking about things being nailed on outside the 72 hour period...

[nanu]

20 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Morning

Up to 4.9c this morning, like a heatwave

Mod thread seems happier this morning, though there is a lot of self congratulating going on between several members taking up a lot of posts. You can tell when someone is still newer to the thread when they start talking about things being nailed on outside the 72 hour period...

Never go in there!  Tonight it will be rattlers being thrown out of prams because the models have all u turned, seen it so many times. I wait till I see the first snow flakes, then cautiously take a peek. 

[Lord Grogon]

10 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Morning

Up to 4.9c this morning, like a heatwave

Mod thread seems happier this morning, though there is a lot of self congratulating going on between several members taking up a lot of posts. You can tell when someone is still newer to the thread when they start talking about things being nailed on outside the 72 hour period...

It’s a funny place in there. There are clearly some very knowledgeable folks who post interesting scientific insights. But you have to post through pages and pages of rutting and ramping to find it! The echo chamber effect doesn’t help either. If you aren’t singing cold, you get a much harder time. 

I imagine the ECM going more blocky at day 10 has provoked the usual round of excited responses this morning.

[Jamie M]

Can't help but notice the incredible lack of sun during the first days of this month.

We've had the streamer setup which ultimately was cold rain now we've had the cold in the form of fog a good portion of the days with only two air frosts here and the sun practically non-existant. I'd like to order the sun back please on Amazon Prime. 

[Matty88]

Great OOz run this morning  from 222 Hrs  that contains similar notes to the 'Beast' of 2018. 

I am a pessimist with charts but they do seem to be slowly but surely 'easing' the Siberian air further and further West, I hope that trend continues as for the like of us in the east and with a North Easterly that would be a great set-up. Of course, still time for it to all go horribly wrong!

There is definitely an element of snow chance for us Thursday-Friday with the boundary front potentially being pushed back but we need this to be pushed a bit further west at the moment, seems possible in my eyes but will be a fine balance thing, at least something to keep an eye on in the short term! One things for sure.... the cold setting up in the continent has got some 'grunt' to it this year. 

[nanu]

27 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

One things for sure.... the cold setting up in the continent has got some 'grunt' to it this year. 

Is that to do with that SSDTPHGFBCMYTSUDDENWARMING thingy above the north pole which can bury us if things go well?

[Tom Quintavalle]

1 hour ago, lottiekent said:

Morning

Up to 4.9c this morning, like a heatwave

Mod thread seems happier this morning, though there is a lot of self congratulating going on between several members taking up a lot of posts. You can tell when someone is still newer to the thread when they start talking about things being nailed on outside the 72 hour period...

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

Yes Lottie, the Model Thread seems a lot happier place this Morning.

Some very good 00z Runs, with some interesting Synoptics showing up, long term. But certainly these Runs are certainly not set in stone yet, and by no means "nailed on."

During my last visit to the Model Thread Yesterday Evening, the Greenland High debate was raging again.

What constitutes a true Greenland High? What happens if we were to see a West based -NAO, develop?

I hope Malcolm doesn't mind but I thought I would post up a link to a Thread I put together in December 2019.

It was a follow up Thread to one I put together in 2007/08, entitled "The Demise of the Greenland High in Winter."

The inspiration for this Thread, was Steve Murr's "Ode to Winter ."

I hope Steve doesn't mind but I just want to post a snippet of his introductory post, regarding the importance of the Greenland High.

QUOTE: 

"The Greenland high

How can I put this- If i had a shopping list for producing snowfall this would be in CAPITALS at the top-!!!

The daddy, The boss,- The Single Most important factor in determining a decent Artic outbreak across the UK-

ALL SUSTAINED cold periods across the UK have involved a strong Core pressure across Greenland 'Steering' the Northern Arm of the jet stream up the western side-

An almost rarity in recent years- perhaps a forgotten entity- They are so rare I've trawled the archives looking for that 'Classic' Greenland high that ridges South, Holds then doesn't retreat or topple but goes onto repetativeley force cold Northerlies & Easterlies over the U.K."

My Thread was a very exhaustive piece of work and as it states in the introductory post, a very crude "Painting by Numbers" look at the possible correlation of strong heights over Greenland and the likelihood of cold, wintry Weather affecting the U.K.

I used the results, in conjunction with the C.E.T (Central England Temperature) record, to illustrate my findings.

There was a pretty good correlation but with an important caveat.

There was no finer example of this caveat, than the back to back Winter Months of January and February 1969.

I'll let my comments in that Thread, take up the story: 

The Demise of the Greenland High in Winter - Historic Weather - Netweather Community Forums

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited January 11, 2021 by TomSE12

[claret047]

1 hour ago, nanu said:

Never go in there!  Tonight it will be rattlers being thrown out of prams because the models have all u turned, seen it so many times. I wait till I see the first snow flakes, then cautiously take a peek. 

I would jolly well hope that "rattlers" would be thrown out of a pram. They could kill a baby, although not likely to see any in the UK, unless in a zoo!

Agree with you though that the Mad thread is at times insane, but I guess that is why I love it. I find it great to see it ebb and flow twixt joy unbounded to people almost on suicide watch, whilst others try their hardest to troll. There are however also some great, experienced posters on there who adopt a balanced approach.

FWIW I believe the models are now picking up a trend to much colder weather by about 20th of the month which could last for several weeks once it becomes encroached with the possibility of heavy snow. Only time will tell if that will be the case, but in the meantime I will enjoy the ride on "the other side".

If it doesn't work out as I predict I will not be slitting my wrists as there are much more important things to worry about in these troubled times. The thread and this one are, however. a great means of escaping all the current worries and a means of interest when there is not a lot else we can do without going against the spirit of Government guidance.

Keep safe

Kind Regards

Dave

[Icebox]

2 hours ago, lottiekent said:

Morning

Up to 4.9c this morning, like a heatwave

Mod thread seems happier this morning, though there is a lot of self congratulating going on between several members taking up a lot of posts. You can tell when someone is still newer to the thread when they start talking about things being nailed on outside the 72 hour period...

Setting themselves up for a possible fall... we have all been down this road many times before.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Matty88 said:

Great OOz run this morning  from 222 Hrs  that contains similar notes to the 'Beast' of 2018. 

I am a pessimist with charts but they do seem to be slowly but surely 'easing' the Siberian air further and further West, I hope that trend continues as for the like of us in the east and with a North Easterly that would be a great set-up. Of course, still time for it to all go horribly wrong!

There is definitely an element of snow chance for us Thursday-Friday with the boundary front potentially being pushed back but we need this to be pushed a bit further west at the moment, seems possible in my eyes but will be a fine balance thing, at least something to keep an eye on in the short term! One things for sure.... the cold setting up in the continent has got some 'grunt' to it this year. 

The feature that sets it up us at 120, but is not yet nailed on. So anything after that forget it. You're looking for the low leaving the USA under cutting the high, sending it up to Greenland. Same thing as the beginning of the last cold spell, more or less. So many options even if it does.

[bluebell]

I stumbled across this on radio 4 extra, posting a link, all about snow I thought some of you may enjoy listening to it! 

BBC Radio 4 Extra - Snow by Marcus Sedgwick (Omnibus)

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

A meditation on snow by writer Marcus Sedgwick.

 

[Eagle Eye]

Good Morning Everyone

Hope you're well

So this time it does seem that Paul Sherman's later January Prediction does seem to be coming to fruit, I wonder if there's still a chance of Snow on my Birthday,  that would be nice mother nature thanks.Would be the first time from what I remember perhaps in 2013 it could have been but not from my memory.

[Matty88]

45 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

The feature that sets it up us at 120, but is not yet nailed on. So anything after that forget it. You're looking for the low leaving the USA under cutting the high, sending it up to Greenland. Same thing as the beginning of the last cold spell, more or less. So many options even if it does.

Indeed... I've seen it many times before too, the great 'rise' then 'fall' haha. I think you'll agree though the SSW ''seems'' to be having an effect on the charts though, just as it did in 2018, but I do for sure not want to curse it ! It is just as likely to flip to mild. 

What gets my gripe is people (mostly newbies) on the model thread posting things like 'booom ' along with a precip forecast chart at 300hrs  funny to watch.

[Atmogenic]

A few pics I took from yesterday's lovely frosty landscapes

[East Kent Snow Desert]

2 hours ago, Matty88 said:

Indeed... I've seen it many times before too, the great 'rise' then 'fall' haha. I think you'll agree though the SSW ''seems'' to be having an effect on the charts though, just as it did in 2018, but I do for sure not want to curse it ! It is just as likely to flip to mild. 

What gets my gripe is people (mostly newbies) on the model thread posting things like 'booom ' along with a precip forecast chart at 300hrs  funny to watch.

I'm only a lurker on the MAD thread or any other thread to be honest but more than ever I go straight to the date on any chart posted now and if it's 5 or more days away I tend to ignore it.  The good stuff is so often 8+ days away but hopefully the effects of the SSW start to come into a more reliable range this week.  

[Paul Sherman]

Temperatures probably peaked today and widespread 8c across the SE with a top temp of 9c at the City of London so the projected 10c not looking so bad from the BBC on their week ahead temperatures. 

Still not even going to look at the models until this weekend and its then I expect to see some really tasty Day 10 charts that should then start to make inroads and come forward for the end of the following week or weekend.

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Matty88 said:

Indeed... I've seen it many times before too, the great 'rise' then 'fall' haha. I think you'll agree though the SSW ''seems'' to be having an effect on the charts though, just as it did in 2018, but I do for sure not want to curse it ! It is just as likely to flip to mild. 

What gets my gripe is people (mostly newbies) on the model thread posting things like 'booom ' along with a precip forecast chart at 300hrs  funny to watch.

Yep as always, models can never seem to grasp the atmosphere afterwards very well.

[TROY]

The frost has gone, its a mini heatwave today . But back to dull skies, sunset this afternoon 4.18. But unlike yesterdays lovely sunset not sure we will see it today. Take care all, and good health to you.

[Daniel*]

Our East Anglia friends in particular should keep an eye out later this week, ECM 06z shifting cold boundary west.