South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Paul Sherman]

Just watched the week ahead forecast and will put in here what they have down.

Monday 10c

Tuesday 11c

Wednesday 10c

Thursday 8c

Friday 7c

As a little test lets see how those temps stack up.

Lets see what the 12z Models show as they will be rolling out soon.

Btw some cracking pictures in this thread today.

[Eagle Eye]

Mysterious Ice Shards randomly move in kent.

 

[Eagle Eye]

Wow

Ice

 

 

[MAF]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Another woeful performance from the BBC yet again - They really seem to have an agenda of climate pushing to me.

Last night on there charts they had 0c to -1c when in reality it was -2c to -5c

Today they had 4-6c when reality is 0c to 2c

Its not just in the winter as well, seems to be a recurring theme throughout the year, we know climate has changed but why the need to over egg the temps by 3-4c all the time.

Are the 9c and 10c they are pushing on Wednesday going to be 5-6c as well.

This really bugs me from them and has done over the past 5 to 10 years.

have to say i agree with you there. for many years i followed Met for their forecasts, yet recently they seem to be less accurate than before.

i know all about the Cray supercomputers they use and tend to think that the computing is the best in the world; however, it all boils down to interpretation and over the last few years Met don't seem to be giving an interpretation of the data. even in the good old days of ceefax the forecasts seemed to be more accurate than now.

Edited January 10, 2021 by MAF

[seaside 60]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Another woeful performance from the BBC yet again - They really seem to have an agenda of climate pushing to me.

Last night on there charts they had 0c to -1c when in reality it was -2c to -5c

Today they had 4-6c when reality is 0c to 2c

Its not just in the winter as well, seems to be a recurring theme throughout the year, we know climate has changed but why the need to over egg the temps by 3-4c all the time.

Are the 9c and 10c they are pushing on Wednesday going to be 5-6c as well.

This really bugs me from them and has done over the past 5 to 10 years.

Thats what I always thought.

However I think I read on here, that the quoted temps are always the Cities and never like in the old days just general.

So when they show say -1c for London they should say and several degress colder in the favoured spots or warmer/colder on the coast.

Like in the summer they show London at 33c where here in Shoebury and even Leigh its only 25 to 28c.

I really dont like the way they do the temps on there now now I have to agree.

[LightningLover]

Hello! Hope everyone is doing well. This morning was the frostiest start I can remember for quite a long time; The grass was completely white outside of the sun, with many low-lying bushes covered too. My local park's ponds also had a thin layer of ice over them, which I haven't seen since the February 2018 cold spell.

It made for a stunning, positively wintery walk. It was still -2c at 11:45am! Pretty impressive for the East Sussex coastline. The frost is still clinging on some surfaces as of 15:50.

Fingers crossed this is just the ground-freezer before the main snow fest! Take care everyone  

Edited January 10, 2021 by LightningLover

[Paul Sherman]

4 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Thats what I always thought.

However I think I read on here, that the quoted temps are always the Cities and never like in the old days just general.

So when they show say -1c for London they should say and several degress colder in the favoured spots or warmer/colder on the coast.

Like in the summer they show London at 33c where here in Shoebury and even Leigh its only 25 to 28c.

I really dont like the way they do the temps on there now now I have to agree.

Ah actually yh you have a good point re the Cities only then - More lazyness I suppose I should have had the sound up and not just the graphics playing in the background - oooops

[MAF]

21 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Ah actually yh you have a good point re the Cities only then - More lazyness I suppose I should have had the sound up and not just the graphics playing in the background - oooops

yes! its not so regional as before. ok, a tv forecast does mention that the temps are for a wider area than portrayed, yet the micro climate of London means here in SE18 might be 2-4 degrees different to southwark/westminister/ or the city. and if they include essex and kent in London as an area then they are not showing true values 

Edited January 10, 2021 by MAF

[Eagle Eye]

Another Beautifull Sunset

Almost Daily In Winter you get reminded at how Beautifull the World is in a simple way. 

[MAF]

going by the BBC forecast online, SE18 will have a 6C change in temps by tomorrow, OK that might be right. But from 3c to 9c doesn't equate for me. 2c (currently) to 5c seems more like it. 

[paget]

Stayed pretty cold here (Farnham, Surrey) max 2.2 

now dropping quite quickly

temp 1.8 

dp 0.9

 

[Neilsouth]

Was not expecting it to be like this today at all!

[John Stevens]

Just couple of pics from the Surrey Hills today. 

[North Downs Snowboarder]

The hard frost overnight has increased the icicle cover in hedges/woods around here. As you can see it's led to a roadside layer of slush to form down this lane. I'm sure this would've happened in big freezes in years gone by, it's more conspicuous today due to the lack of snow cover.

[Arrows1986]

The met/bbc must have side backsides sitting on the fence constantly. And they are always so vague.

 

I remember Jan 2014 I was In new York. Forecast said heavy snow at 1am for hrsmmnearvebough dead on 1 heavy snow. They are so much more accurate

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Ah actually yh you have a good point re the Cities only then - More lazyness I suppose I should have had the sound up and not just the graphics playing in the background - oooops

It’s weird how BBC TV forecasts are based on ECM but the temps nope, they seem to add their own interpretation and it’s so often too warm in cold weather I should know I live close to central London. 

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, MAF said:

yes! its not so regional as before. ok, a tv forecast does mention that the temps are for a wider area than portrayed, yet the micro climate of London means here in SE18 might be 2-4 degrees different to southwark/westminister/ or the city. and if they include essex and kent in London as an area then they are not showing true values 

Even so, I still think the temps are to warm, let's see if London hit's 10c tomorrow.

[95 Degrees]

Beautiful hoar frost this morning. With a low of -3,5c. Fog really created a magical frigid atmosphere earlier. Here's some snaps from the A:M. Hopefully we'll be seeing plenty of this in the next 2 months, With a snow covering on top.

 

 

[chionomaniac]

3 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Another woeful performance from the BBC yet again - They really seem to have an agenda of climate pushing to me.

Last night on there charts they had 0c to -1c when in reality it was -2c to -5c

Today they had 4-6c when reality is 0c to 2c

Its not just in the winter as well, seems to be a recurring theme throughout the year, we know climate has changed but why the need to over egg the temps by 3-4c all the time.

Are the 9c and 10c they are pushing on Wednesday going to be 5-6c as well.

This really bugs me from them and has done over the past 5 to 10 years.

I reckon they post the expected possible maximum temps that may be experienced in the centre of the biggest cities. So heavily biased towards urban heat islands and not considering the temps experienced in rural areas.

It gives a heavily skewed forecast not at all focussed on those who don’t live in the middle of an urban heat island.

[Eagle Eye]

[MAF]

55 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Even so, I still think the temps are to warm, let's see if London hit's 10c tomorrow.

well they are still either below or just about average fo this time of year, so "too warm' seems a bit beyond me. average for this time of year is normally between 4 -9 C according to all the relevant information i have looked at. 

lets face it, its winter, not snowed yet, been frosty, foggy, cold and above all it's been as some of the younger generation would not think winter should be. 

personally, given the past years of  10C day and night i am happy with what is given now  

 

[Hotspur62]

Just hit our highest temperature of the day at 1.2 as at 7.15pm.the temperature didn’t reach zero here in Locksbottom till 12.15pm and has hovered around the 1 degree mark all afternoon.another well below average temperature for 2021 here(10 consecutive day temp has not reached 5 degrees here.

[Paul Sherman]

Genuine Question here - Loads of BOOOOOMS from the Model Thread but I am failing to see the excitement yet, am I missing something here ? 25th Onwards for me which are just about at the end of the GFS Runs now. 

Steve, Nick please enlighten me about why everyone is getting excited for the middle of the following week (eg the 19th Jan or around that day)

I would love to be proven wrong but I think we still have quite a way to go yet before Scandi proper tips into the Uk and not marginal mush

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Genuine Question here - Loads of BOOOOOMS from the Model Thread but I am failing to see the excitement yet, am I missing something here ? 25th Onwards for me which are just about at the end of the GFS Runs now. 

Steve, Nick please enlighten me about why everyone is getting excited for the middle of the following week (eg the 19th Jan or around that day)

I would love to be proven wrong but I think we still have quite a way to go yet before Scandi proper tips into the Uk and not marginal mush

I am neither but at the moment it does seem that the cold is getting ever and that their is a medium chance of it coming of so people are more excited. 

[MAF]

9 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Genuine Question here - Loads of BOOOOOMS from the Model Thread but I am failing to see the excitement yet, am I missing something here ? 25th Onwards for me which are just about at the end of the GFS Runs now. 

Steve, Nick please enlighten me about why everyone is getting excited for the middle of the following week (eg the 19th Jan or around that day)

I would love to be proven wrong but I think we still have quite a way to go yet before Scandi proper tips into the Uk and not marginal mush

glad you asked Steve or Nick because i don't have a Scoobies