South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Eagle Eye]

For anyone wondering what a SSW is here is the basic lowdown. 

A SSW or Sudden Stratospheric Warming occurs when the Polar Vortex winds keeping the extremely cold air over the Arctic that's in the Stratoshpere slow down and weaken this allows the cold air to collapse and become warmer rapidly. 

Over around a few weeks the Stratospheric air sometimes can come down and weaken the jet stream. This can block warmer air over the Atlantic and allow colder air to sink it's way down and envelop the UK and giving us a long spell of very cold air. 

If this happens and we get very cold air sinking that is most likely going to bring air from Arctic Areas which in turn could bring hefty Snow with it. 

It is easiest seen on the Jet Stream and Stratospheric Temperature Charts looking at ground temperature you should be able to see wether it has come down or not most likely. 

Forecasting these however can be hard and so it is most likely that you'll have to see what happens or look within the next few days and see how well further outlooks stick with further runs. 

Here is an example of how warmer Stratospheric conditions can if they come down affect the ground temperatures.

As seen here we have a January 2021 forecasted Stratospheric Warming chart. 

Later in the forecast you can see the Milder air that has pushed up. 

Meteociel shows after the relatively predictable warmer weather because of the SSW that the Colder Air does come down and weaken the jet stream and stop Atlantic High pressure from interfering allowing the UK to sit in a colder air pocket. 

A familiar shape to this is a U shaped Jet Stream in America as well as it covering our region the jet stream. 

This will still take a while to push down to our Region though as seen here by the flimsy High clinging on although it'll most likely lose out and the Low will come down to our Region as it is waiting to crash through to our west. 

 

[Blazerblue]

no rain since half 8, but gonna take a week to dry out, hope no more rain is on the way

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Negative DP now at - 0.1 and temp 1.9c 

 

You couldn't make it up.. We look likely to see probably some of the coldest weather of winter so far and there isn't a drop of PPN.

 

But like I said before this is the next best thing especially if we get some good freezing fog to cover everything white 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Good afternoon

A welcoming site towards home

Temps in Eltham ( picking kids up) +4c

Temps here at the top +1c

Est lows. -5c tonight.

Nice, starting wonder if my half an hour sleet shower on the 5th of December is the Winter highlight here in Suffolk!...Any thoughts on latest SSW potential weather for us Steve? Had a look on the Mod thread and cant make head nor tail of where we stand atm! To much bickering and handbags!

Edited January 6, 2021 by Guest

[Binsey72]

We had about 8inches today well chuffed !!

[m1chaels]

So Harmonie (which picked up on lying snow on the South Downs) is now predicting two events for our region, streamers into the N of E Anglia over the next 24 hours and then snow moving down from the North and fizzling starting in the early hours of Friday morning....

 

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=nlnl&MODELL=harmonie40&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=202101061200&VAR=weas&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Edited January 6, 2021 by m1chaels

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Binsey72 said:

We had about 8inches today well chuffed !!

Not bad but when I use the same measuring technique I would have referred to that as a dusting!

[Bogman]

7 minutes ago, Binsey72 said:

We had about 8inches today well chuffed !!

What did you use as your dibber? 

[Jackski4]

29 minutes ago, Binsey72 said:

We had about 8inches today well chuffed !!

You free tonight? Haha.

[Jackski4]

A better day here - cold with light winds and a bit of sunshine coming through at times. Looks like we’re in for a cold one tonight 

[Hotspur62]

Great post by TomSE12 earlier-went to the queens head in Downe in the summer using eat out to help out and food very good in there especially with the prices under that scheme.Been another sub 5c day today maxing here at 4.2 and down to 0.1 already at 6pm.Could be a sharp frost tonight if it stays clear.

Although it stays cold till Sunday signs are milder temperatures will occur from next Monday but don’t think it will ever be excessively mild and reckon 6-8 will be order of the day from next Tuesday if I had to hazard a guess.Mind you that is too far out tbf.It will be nice if we could get a few proper sunny winter days coming to dry out the ground

[Nick F]

Just had my photo of the snow here this morning pop up on ITV London News

[Eagle Eye]

Just to let you know.

[cookie27]

Showers definitely picking up on The Wash and heading this way, let's see if they last all the way to London 

[yamkin]

Temp down to 1.8C and Dew point -1C....Friday looks interesting at the moment in some parts of the SE around London 

[E17boy]

14 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

Just to let you know.

Where is this for Moscow ....certainly does not look it for us

[Eagle Eye]

10 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Where is this for Moscow ....certainly does not look it for us

My local postcode 

[cookie27]

24 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Temp down to 1.8C and Dew point -1C....Friday looks interesting at the moment in some parts of the SE around London 

What's the synopsis for Friday mate? 

[yamkin]

6 minutes ago, cookie27 said:

What's the synopsis for Friday mate? 

-8 upper temps (850 hPa). Dew Point 0 (possibly lower). No undercutting warm sectors so far.

All down to the flow of the ppn

[Hurricane Debby]

All I can say is thank god it's stopped raining !

[Tom Quintavalle]

Evening all,

Obviously, not to be taken seriously at this range but really liking the 12z GFS, in it's final few frames:

         GFS 12Z 22nd Jan (t384)

The Arctic High, poking it's nose into the top of the picture.

Scroll back to 9th January, 1987. The Arctic High made a welcome appearance, before that epic spell :

Which 2 Days later, led on to this:

I know, cherry-picking, pattern matching at it's most extreme but having experienced that spell when I lived in Bromley, N.W. Kent/S.E. London, with around 10 inches of level Snow, by the end of that 2 Week spell, we can only dream that we see a similar spell. I'm sure the great majority of Members would take this Synoptic evolution, if this was to be the result of the current S.S.W.

Regards,

Tom.  

Edited January 6, 2021 by TomSE12

[Coopsy]

22 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Evening all,

Obviously, not to be taken seriously at this range but really liking the 12z GFS, in it's final few frames:

         GFS 12Z 22nd Jan (t384)

The Arctic High, poking it's nose into the top of the picture.

Scroll back to 9th January, 1987. The Arctic High made a welcome appearance, before that epic spell :

Which 2 Days later, led on to this:

I know, cherry-picking, pattern matching at it's most extreme but having experienced that spell when I lived in Bromley, N.W. Kent/S.E. London, with around 10 inches of level Snow, by the end of that 2 Week spell, we can only dream that we see a similar spell. I'm sure the great majority of Members would take this Synoptic evolution, if this was to be the result of the current S.S.W.

Regards,

Tom.  

Hi Tom,

I hope you’re well.

I,  like you, remember 1987 with great fondness and personally use it as the holy grail by which all winter weather events are measured by in the SE. 

Living on the north downs at the time and being in the sweat spot that year we measured over 2 feet of snow. With icicles from roof to ground. For a 10 year old it was most magical. 

I’m keeping my fingers crossed for you all that this happens again this year. This week almost had the perfect set up to match that amazing event for snowfall levels, alas the temps and dew points were not quite right.

Take care,

Coops 

Edited January 6, 2021 by Coopsy

[SMU]

Just glanced out on the main drag it was flooded with big massive puddles earlier - however it's drying up uber quick here- That glossy sheen on the roads means ice will be a big problem tonights

Currently 

-0.2 / -0.6

S

[Bazza118]

it's a tad slippery outside at the moment, on the paths and roads. temp and dp currently -1c.

[Delka]

snow symbols on my weather app from 3-8am tonight in Norfolk.. what’s the chances of this being any good?