South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[RJBingham]

Snowing in Somersham.

[Froze were the Days]

27 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:

This why for a novice trying to understand the models and what the outcomes are. Two posts within a minute of each other  

 

 

Top post referring to the 144h and the post below referring to the better 168h chart (I think)...it's just lazy posting with not any information/timescale about what they're talking about.

Chucking it down outside again with more cold rain...yay!

Edited January 31, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[Captain Shortwave]

There is snow falling here now. Only light mind you and the forecast did not rule this out. 

[Tom Quintavalle]

1 hour ago, Neilsouth said:

Wasn't expecting this with the week ahead, mild southerlies beginning week after next weekend 

Evening all,

Very much ECMGate, on the Model Thread Tonight!!

Yes Neil,

but this looks like the 00z ECM, in the extended:

    00z ECM (T240) 00z 10th Feb.

 

Sarah Keith-Lucas did end with the caveat though, that "cold air to the East could well push its way across the U.K. So do keep tuned to your latest Forecasts, over the next couple of Days." Don't worry we will Sarah!!. Below, is that MeteoGroup Forecast:

Weather for the week ahead - BBC Weather

Still think some Members confuse the BBC with the Met Office but the BBC ended their contract with the METO, back in March 2018. But the BBC Website still carries METO Weather Warnings?  

I think a Member ascertained the other Day, that MeteoGroup use the ECM Model, as their Forecasting tool?

Anyway, the METO L. R. F. below (updated this Afternoon), looks completely at odds with that MeteoGroup extended Forecast, above? 

UK long range weather forecast

Friday 5 Feb - Sunday 14 Feb

Low pressure dominant over the UK at first bringing showers and perhaps spells of rain and snow over northern areas on Friday, with a chance of snow to lower levels. Further south milder and cloudy with showers. High pressure then looks to gradually build to the north, introducing cold and dry weather across the UK with the chance of wintry showers along eastern coastal areas. Feeling cold especially in brisk easterly winds with widespread overnight frosts and the risk of icy stretches and wintry hazards. There remains the possibility of milder and wetter conditions fringing the far northwest at times along with organised areas of cloud and precipitation making limited progress inland from the southwest.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Sun 31 Jan 2021

Regards,

Tom 

[Hurricane Debby]

1 hour ago, UKSupercell said:

Some more photos from up at Black Down. Must have been about 2cm up there, but a light covering enough for snowmen. 

Drove to another hill nearer Petersfield just as it was getting dark. 240m ASL there and about 2cm there too. A nice surprise today was! 

Fantastic photograpy and pics 

[Methuselah]

Just a heads-up guys... it's raining!

[Lord Grogon]

1 hour ago, Ian Docwra said:

I have to agree.  Leaving aside the actual forecast accuracy, the BBC's on-line weather output is very frequently inconsistent on the same page (not to mention the far-too-frequent typos).  I've lost count of the number of times the text summary for, in my case, London and SE England has said something like "freshening SW winds later tonight", but the hourly breakdown shows a SE light breeze throughout!  The frequency of these inconsistencies with very short-term stuff simply doesn't inspire confidence in anything else.  I think the BBC also tries to inject too much detail accuracy in, for instance, precipitation % chance - especially when the % chance for each hour doesn't tally with when they show the rain falling; e.g. 25% chance of rain with light cloud, then, in the next hour, 18% chance of rain (i.e. less likely) but with light rain shown. 

Only my second post and moaning already!

Part of the problem is that websites and apps simply import raw data directly from the computer models. No other way as they are expected to provide information for locations everywhere. Humans couldn't possibly do it. Text and TV forecasts should in theory should have more human input as a complement to the model data. Although as pointed out, how much of this actually happens with BBC forecasts is up for debate.

Models are good but at the moment anyway they simply do not function at high enough resolution or update quick enough to pick up all the short term localised variations in our weather. Especially in the UK which is prone to a greater number of local effects due to where we sit in the world. A good example on this thread were the recent "snow" events with people  posting pictures of their apps that were completely different to what they were seeing outside their windows!

Therefore I agree that the drive to provide ever more detail in weather forecasting tools such as apps is not always a good thing. Perhaps in the future when the technology improves a bit more.

[nanu]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Top post referring to the 144h and the post below referring to the better 168h chart (I think)...it's just lazy posting with not any information/timescale about what they're talking about.

Chucking it down outside again with more cold rain...yay!

Do you know, I should go in that mod thread and say "Feb 14th 2021 looks nailed to be occasional rain spreading west to east with brisk westerly winds"  and the funny thing is I have a 72% chance of being right.

[Floatylight]

Always makes me wonder...

Cold air to the east.

So why is it snowing in Wales and raining in Essex

[Stu_London]

Game on with the 18z for a snow event for our region next Sunday - just 144 hours for it to all go wrong. 

Kent looks like bearing the brunt of it with 30 hours continuous snow. 

However as it's a boundary event there is a goldilocks zone - any shift south and we lose the ppn - any shift north and all too familiar rent and sleet scenario becomes likely. 

Overall however proper cold is trending from Friday/Saturday onwards. 

[Stu_London]

11 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

Always makes me wonder...

Cold air to the east.

So why is it snowing in Wales and raining in Essex

We might have cold air to the east but its not a lot of good if the airmass isn't originating from there. Lots of other considerations also. 

Should be getting something from the east by next Saturday, so keep the faith

[snowrye]

1 hour ago, nanu said:

Do you know, I should go in that mod thread and say "Feb 14th 2021 looks nailed to be occasional rain spreading west to east with brisk westerly winds"  and the funny thing is I have a 72% chance of being right.

Don't forget to put BOOM

[UKSupercell]

3 hours ago, Hurricane Debby said:

Fantastic photograpy and pics 

Thanks! Been two snowfalls in 8 days now in parts of the South East. Any photos I've uploaded here have been with my old Iphone SE. If this cold spell from next weekend onwards transpires into a BFTE situation, I'll have to get the old canon DSLR out methinks! 

Edited January 31, 2021 by UKSupercell

[all weather]

This is an amazing month of weather we have had, lots of different weather, plenty of snow chances. I do feel for those suffering flooding.

In a world which keeps going on about GW, having a below average month makes a nice change. Am sure these will not vanish anytime soon. 

Looking forward to the next weeks weather and potential snow.

[Maidstone marginal]

Trip down memory lane,, no one ever talks about the beast from the east of  early Jan 1997. I was living in Hythe Kent then and I can safely say it was the longest I've seen deep lying snow. From 30th December 1996 until 11th Jan97. Nearly all those days had sub zero max temps. Even on the south Kent Riviera. Did I imagine the whole thing?

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, Maidstone marginal said:

Trip down memory lane,, no one ever talks about the beast from the east of  early Jan 1997. I was living in Hythe Kent then and I can safely say it was the longest I've seen deep lying snow. From 30th December 1996 until 11th Jan97. Nearly all those days had sub zero max temps. Even on the south Kent Riviera. Did I imagine the whole thing?

Nope your memory is bang on.

[Maidstone marginal]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Nope your memory is bang on.

In fact that cold spell began about 20th December with biting east winds but no snow for the first 10 days

[Maidstone marginal]

Jan 85, Jan 87, Feb 91 and Dec 96 were the main snow  events in that part of the world. 96/97 Event was longest lasting though. December 2010 was a 2 day wonder down there.

[Maidstone marginal]

3rd December 2010,, about 25 cm settled in 1 night in the shepway area. 6th December it peed down with rain and melted the lot in 2 hours. So from a local perspective it isn't really very memorable other than I got some awesome sledging on the Folkestone hills on 1day

[Maidstone marginal]

There's a guy on a rival weather site from an island in north Kent who claims that frigid mid winter easterlies/north easterlies are a thing of the past. He's got a good point. It's been 8 years and this midwinter is a bust also. It's late winter now.

[jamesgold]

Incredible GFS tonight, I’m very nervous about heading back into the MOD thread for the 0zs when they inevitably downgrade. It can’t get better than that 18z

[yamkin]

4 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

Incredible GFS tonight, I’m very nervous about heading back into the MOD thread for the 0zs when they inevitably downgrade. It can’t get better than that 18z

There could be downgrades/upgrades during this week which is normal. Wed/Thurs will be a good indicator if the very cold air is definitely on course to unleash its might 

[Mizzle]

2 hours ago, Maidstone marginal said:

Trip down memory lane,, no one ever talks about the beast from the east of  early Jan 1997. I was living in Hythe Kent then and I can safely say it was the longest I've seen deep lying snow. From 30th December 1996 until 11th Jan97. Nearly all those days had sub zero max temps. Even on the south Kent Riviera. Did I imagine the whole thing?

I experienced that weather: was going to Holland for New Year and the motorway drive was terrifying! Even had a coach SLIDE past us at a near miss distance . It was bloody freezing in Holland - got down to -16. And just my luck I came down with flu (the proper can't move type). Was in bed for the whole visit - with ice forming on the inside of the bedroom window -and missed out on the ice skating on the lake too!

Edited February 1, 2021 by Mizzle
Typo

[Maidstone marginal]

I remember taking a train ride to London during that spell and I remember London had zero snow and in fact all places west of paddock wood were heroically snowless

[Captain Shortwave]

A murky start here with lots of mist around. Still pretty chilly at just 1/2c. It is forecast to brighten up a little this afternoon.

Still up in the air for the end of the week with the track of that Atlantic low and subsequent surge of cold air out of Scandinavia. UKMO/GEM still drag this through the U.K. whilst the GFS sinks this south without touching the U.K. with winds slowly veering from the south towards the north east.