South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Radiating Dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Mr.B said:

Warnings for London & SE

 

Updated: 09:50 (UTC) on Fri 29 Jan 2021

Further details

An area of rain pushing in from the south-west overnight will turn to sleet and then snow during the course of Saturday morning, before the band stalls and starts to move south again in the afternoon as it eases. A few cm of snow are possible at low levels, but more persistent snow is expected across Wales and some hills elsewhere, with 3-7 cm of snow possible above 150 m elevation and 10-15 cm over higher ground (above 250 m), mainly in Wales. There is also a low chance of around 20 cm over the higher routes in the Brecon Beacons.

SE? Since when did we become a part of Wales?

[Tom Quintavalle]

15 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Heavy rain arrived

Pouring down in S.E. London, too.

Very encouraging 00z Runs again, if you're after a bit of the "White Stuff), especially next Weekend.

On the link below, you will find an animated Forecast for London and other parts, of our Region.

Looks to be cold Rain for our Region Tomorrow, perhaps some Wintriness, over the Chilterns.

London - BBC Weather

On the link below, you will find a recent MeteoGroup Forecast, courtesy of Sarah Keith-Lucas.

IMO, more chance of seeing some Snow around the Region on Sunday, as that cold Easterly starts to undercut the Precipitation, more so than on Saturday.

BBC Weather

Regards,

Tom.  

[simonhall6]

I know they use different model data but it’s funny how yesterday the BBC weather had light snow forecasted for me for Sat with that changing to sleet in this mornings update , but the met office have done the opposite with sleet and one hour of light snow forecasted yesterday for Sat that has changed this morning  to an hour of heavy snow and then light snow for 3/4 hours on Sat.

I’m pretty sure it will be similar to last Sunday though with cold rain with a bit of sleet mixed in

 

 

[Nick F]

18 minutes ago, Mr.B said:

Warnings for London & SE

 

Updated: 09:50 (UTC) on Fri 29 Jan 2021

Further details

An area of rain pushing in from the south-west overnight will turn to sleet and then snow during the course of Saturday morning, before the band stalls and starts to move south again in the afternoon as it eases. A few cm of snow are possible at low levels, but more persistent snow is expected across Wales and some hills elsewhere, with 3-7 cm of snow possible above 150 m elevation and 10-15 cm over higher ground (above 250 m), mainly in Wales. There is also a low chance of around 20 cm over the higher routes in the Brecon Beacons.

The warning for snow only covers NW/W Oxfordshire i.e the Cotswolds - Oxon which falls under their London and SE region - confusing for someone who just sees a warning for snow for London & SE but doesn't check where in the region!

I suspect there could be some wet snow on the back edge as it clears, particularly over Chilterns and North Downs. But only dusting or slushy deposits on highest hills.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Nick F

[Lord Grogon]

Aww how sweet! We have our own little storm.

[Lampostwatcher]

Warnings out for mon to weds 

Far nw of our region 

[simonhall6]

5 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Warnings out for mon to weds 

Far nw of our region 

Here’s the met office warning for snow and ice, Monday to Wednesday, not just the NW of the region seems to cover a lot of the region !

 

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by simonhall6

[Wimbledon88]

Always best to be outside the warning area when it comes to snow in winter or tstorms in summer as they are usually about 70-100 miles out.

[SHM040519]

This is a new type of weather for me! Mild rain! Buzzing for my old time favourite cold rain tomorrow!!

[Tom Quintavalle]

Below, is the extended Met Office, outlook:

UK long range weather forecast

Tuesday 2 Feb - Thursday 11 Feb

Going into next week, it is likely that unsettled conditions will dominate, with low pressure systems moving in off the Atlantic. The weather will be changeable. Periods of rain or wintry showers, and strong winds are likely, especially in the west, with brief more settled spells in between. Westerly or southwesterly winds during this period will bring milder conditions to most areas, but occasional interludes of cold northerly winds are possible. It will be on this boundary between the colder and milder airmasses where any snowfall to lower levels could possibly occur. Towards the end of this period, we may see high pressure build over the north of the UK, bringing colder conditions and wintry outbreaks.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Fri 29 Jan 2021

Thursday 11 Feb - Thursday 25 Feb

Although confidence at this range is low, current signals suggest that high pressure could be positioned over the north of the UK during this period. This would likely bring wintry outbreaks and colder than average temperatures to northern areas, as well as increasing the likelihood of more widespread cold spells. Any periods of milder, unsettled weather are more likely to be confined to central and southern areas, where greater than average rainfall is predicted. There is a continued risk of significant snowfall events on the boundary between colder and milder airmasses, with snow possible to low elevations.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Fri 29 Jan 2021

Regards,

Tom. 

[moogyboobles]

33 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

Aww how sweet! We have our own little storm.

I was looking forward to this and then it turned and just passed me by. It just got a bit dark, no action. 

[lawrenk]

Don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade in the north and west of the region but it’s all about next weekend onwards for me. A long way off and lots could go wrong but it looks rather exciting and potentially a proper cold spell rather than this knife edge marginal stuff.

Ignoring 87 and 91 the best cold spell memory for me was Jan 10 when we got caught under a “Kent Streamer” for several hours from about 9pm. Being able to track the incoming showers on “rain today” and then having them arrive like clockwork, each one topping up the snow cover, well, it doesn’t get better than that does it?

[Nick F]

10 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Below, is the extended Met Office, outlook:

UK long range weather forecast

Tuesday 2 Feb - Thursday 11 Feb

Going into next week, it is likely that unsettled conditions will dominate, with low pressure systems moving in off the Atlantic. The weather will be changeable. Periods of rain or wintry showers, and strong winds are likely, especially in the west, with brief more settled spells in between. Westerly or southwesterly winds during this period will bring milder conditions to most areas, but occasional interludes of cold northerly winds are possible. It will be on this boundary between the colder and milder airmasses where any snowfall to lower levels could possibly occur. Towards the end of this period, we may see high pressure build over the north of the UK, bringing colder conditions and wintry outbreaks.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Fri 29 Jan 2021

Thursday 11 Feb - Thursday 25 Feb

Although confidence at this range is low, current signals suggest that high pressure could be positioned over the north of the UK during this period. This would likely bring wintry outbreaks and colder than average temperatures to northern areas, as well as increasing the likelihood of more widespread cold spells. Any periods of milder, unsettled weather are more likely to be confined to central and southern areas, where greater than average rainfall is predicted. There is a continued risk of significant snowfall events on the boundary between colder and milder airmasses, with snow possible to low elevations.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Fri 29 Jan 2021

Regards,

Tom. 

Morning Tom. 

That's yesterday's extended forecast update. Today's update usually in the afternoon. 5 day forecast was updated today up to Tuesday, but the extended should start from Wednesday, but still starts from Tuesday at the moment.

Hopefully it should be an upgrade for us in the south from later in the week, rather than just suggesting just the north will have colder conditions

Edited January 29, 2021 by Nick F

[Tom Quintavalle]

Just now, Nick F said:

Morning Tom. 

That's yesterday's extended forecast update. Today's update usually in the afternoon. 5 day forecast was updated today up to Tuesday, but the extended should start from Wednesday, but still starts from Tuesday at the moment.

Thanks Nick, I've always been behind the times!!

Hopefully, we'll get an upgrade for Cold and Wintry Weather, to affect our Region.

Regards,

Tom. 

[terryall]

Heavy rain in Whitstable and I’m just about surrounded by water now. The ground is already saturated so this doesn’t help. 
I never understand why workers like roofers, ground workers etc don’t wear wet weather gear. They all seem to wear hoodie types tops and get soaked. Weird.

[Snowman31]

Any idea how we zoom in to the exact locations on the met office weather warnings on a phone? It is just a yellowing box with my location near the border. 

[NewEra21]

06z GFS is an absolute cracker!! I know these charts are miles into fantasy land, but if we can get the pattern set up from next weekend onwards these charts could easily become reality in the weeks ahead. Much caution needed of course, as we all know how things often go wrong!

Edited January 29, 2021 by NewEra21

[Matty88]

Following the recent rain and saturation I've never seen the rivers so high around Cambridgeshire - it really is concerning. A few more spells of heavy rain (due next week) and I can foresee real issues, the Env Agency must be on full alert right now... 

As for snow/rain, it's looking as though Saturdays front is looking too far South for much of EA now? And I suspect that it will be mostly a rain and sleet event for those away from high ground and Wales. The chances for frontal snow get better as the weekend goes on and the cold air digs in. That said, I'm not convinced (despite the Met-office warning) that Monday will produce much in EA or the Se, I think it may be a bit of initial sleet and then back to heavy rain as the mild air is making major inroads by that point. 

I'm getting hopeful though that we will see some deeper cold later next week (although a long way off) . Deeper cold but also drier, so not necessarily a snow fest to go with it but details are low at this point. Drier wouldn't be a bad thing!!  

[Blazerblue]

Flooded still here after yesterday mornings rain, so frankly Im happy to miss any more rain or snow hopefully tomorrow. I dont think its supposed to come this far east anyway. Today is sunny spells and temps up to 10c, moderate breeze.

[Neilsouth]

This map is awesome, shows how high you are above Sea Level!

If you're interested in any upcoming snow events and want to see what elevation you live at (Rain/Sleet/Snow), here's a great map! I live at 240FT above Sea Level whereas my family live at just 54FT :D

Kent topographic map, elevation, relief

EN-GB.TOPOGRAPHIC-MAP.COM

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Kent, South East, England, United Kingdom - Free topographic maps visualization and sharing.

 

[Snowman31]

25 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

This map is awesome, shows how high you are above Sea Level!

If you're interested in any upcoming snow events and want to see what elevation you live at (Rain/Sleet/Snow), here's a great map! I live at 240FT above Sea Level whereas my family live at just 54FT

Kent topographic map, elevation, relief

EN-GB.TOPOGRAPHIC-MAP.COM

---

Kent, South East, England, United Kingdom - Free topographic maps visualization and sharing.

 

Is this accurate? I tried to other site's and got 80ft and 113ft and this one gives me 218 ft lol 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Snowman31

[Neilsouth]

5 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

Is this accurate? I tried to other site's android got 80ft and 113ft and this one gives me 218 ft lol 

Yep, certainly matches with local reports ^

[Snowman31]

5 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Yep, certainly matches with local reports ^

Very interesting. Looking at the whole region I can see why it seems so often to snow just to the north of my location in marginal situations as the elevation is around an extra 150 - 200 ft higher up. 

[Wimbledon88]

Always best to be outside the warning area when it comes to snow in winter or tstorms in summer as they are usually about 70-100 miles out.

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

Thanks Nick, I've always been behind the times!!

Hopefully, we'll get an upgrade for Cold and Wintry Weather, to affect our Region.

Regards,

Tom. 

New extended outlook just been posted on Met Office website. 

Certainly the best outlook for several years for the cold and snow fans amongst us. They are going for a prolonged very cold spell. Reminds me of the winter 2010 outlooks. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Does now look like tomorrow has slipped the wrong way.. Unfortunately this time round the mild air wins out.. Which means a lot more rain tomorrow and I'm confused to why we don't have a warning for rain given how high rivers are and the ground completely saturated.. 

 

I'm also not to keen on an easterly wind if it can't deliver.. Rarely do you get frosts as so much clag gets drawn in from the North Sea and we end up with bitterly cold winds under grey skies with not a drop of snow. Boring weather springs to mind..