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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
8 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

So will Sussex miss out the umpteenth time again this weekend? Or can we get more trends south 

Not impossible, but would be rather remarkable.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

I’ve lost count over the years how many times a predicted low was shifted south nearer the time. Sunday just gone was very rare as it trended further north. Imagine this  75 miles south and it’s game in for all the region....it definitely won’t reach Stoke...Near the Peak District  All still to play for gang

550D7086-327C-4F8B-9443-C90A73C2196E.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’ve lost count over the years how many times a predicted low was shifted south nearer the time. Sunday just gone was very rare as it trended further north. Imagine this  75 miles south and it’s game in for all the region....it definitely won’t reach Stoke...Near the Peak District  All still to play for gang

550D7086-327C-4F8B-9443-C90A73C2196E.jpeg

I was thinking the same Tim when I made my post earlier in the Mad Thread . Just a shuffle south and it’s all go .

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Posted
  • Location: Bodle street e.sussex 60m asl/ Stalham, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes!
  • Location: Bodle street e.sussex 60m asl/ Stalham, Norfolk
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’ve lost count over the years how many times a predicted low was shifted south nearer the time. Sunday just gone was very rare as it trended further north. Imagine this  75 miles south and it’s game in for all the region....it definitely won’t reach Stoke...Near the Peak District  All still to play for gang

550D7086-327C-4F8B-9443-C90A73C2196E.jpeg

Trouble is, it'll probably go too far south and end up in the channel knowing our luck!

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’ve lost count over the years how many times a predicted low was shifted south nearer the time. Sunday just gone was very rare as it trended further north. Imagine this  75 miles south and it’s game in for all the region....it definitely won’t reach Stoke...Near the Peak District  All still to play for gang

550D7086-327C-4F8B-9443-C90A73C2196E.jpeg

 

I knew you'd  be discussing this, we've been have a similar conversation up north threads about southerly corrections. It'd be nice if it didn't but that looks great for the midlands south. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’ve lost count over the years how many times a predicted low was shifted south nearer the time. Sunday just gone was very rare as it trended further north. Imagine this  75 miles south and it’s game in for all the region....it definitely won’t reach Stoke...Near the Peak District  All still to play for gang

550D7086-327C-4F8B-9443-C90A73C2196E.jpeg

Hope you are right Tim 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I'm getting just a hint of early Feb 2007 about this. That ended up trending further south over time and actually ended up giving alot of the region a fairly decent event in what was a real mild mild winter overall.

I do think we probably are in the lesser risk area, but there is enough there that it warrants at least a little watching, however I do agree with others that there are possibly better chances coming down the line.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

A very tough forecast for the coming weekend, Saturday still has an envelope ranging from snow in the north of the region/rain in the south to the system barely scraping the south coast.

Fax Chart

image.thumb.png.c2b85c159d8398c0b578f2e6080124ea.png

The front through South Wales and southern England, snow on the northern flank of the system, this chart probably covers many part of southern England away from the coast (Winchester northwards a point away from the coast). Too far away at the moment, the next system will be another headache with the Euros taking a similar track to the Saturday low. Beyond this, I am a little dubious about the angle of attack at the start of next week.

image.thumb.png.e48732bc4c2211249c9a319fb093bc35.png

I suspect that nearer the time the Azores ridge will not displace towards Iberia like this, given how the preceding lows are now behaving when a few days ago we had charts like this one.

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
1 hour ago, Tom Jarvis said:

So will Sussex miss out the umpteenth time again this weekend? Or can we get more trends south 

Think the worst, anything else is a bonus, mind you, a snow to rain event is not for me

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl

I know it's rained loads, but there's nothing like the sound of falling rain drops, on the bedroom velux. So relaxing

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
21 minutes ago, andymcpool said:

Proper cold heavy rain in SW11

The water coming from the sky is quite cold, but the air isn't - probably not far off double figures. 

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Posted
  • Location: Balham SW12
  • Location: Balham SW12
36 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

The water coming from the sky is quite cold, but the air isn't - probably not far off double figures. 

Sure feels cold when I stick my head out the window!

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Posted
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk

Heavy rain nearly now cleared away off the east coast. Should have stayed in bed another hour instead of walking the dogs early, could have gone out after it had passed us! 

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Saturday tough... No comment from me really yet.. I expect it to trend further south like @Tim Bland said last weekend was a 1 in a million kind of thing tracking further north.. Most of the time these systems correct south..

I'm awaiting todays runs later and probably tomorrows too before making any real judgement.. 

Edited by Surrey
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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

image.thumb.png.4cd983195fe8642d7aa7c42a1d3038b1.png

image.thumb.png.73dad23ff03553706ccbbce8143d9246.png

Slight northern bump in position on UKV 03z compared to 15z, just makes it further E into the more conductive cold air that's undercutting it. I'd expect it to start to shift south in the next few runs so I'm really not raising any hopes.

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

So I've not posted for a few days. But as some of you will remember, I was posting the GFS P daily as it was consistently showing an Easterly setting up for the beginning of February.  

Now obviously this is still out of the reliable timeframe and not to be taken seriously, but the GFS and ECM are now showing what the GFS P has been showing for over a week. Trend setter? Here's hoping!

ECM

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240 (1).gif

 

GFSgfs-0-216.png

gfs-1-216.png

Edited by NewEra21
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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

Some snowy interest showing up for Saturday. Am not convinced yet (doesn’t look like uppers will be cold enough) and anyway, it’s too early, but the trend is going the right way. 

DA340B9A-7471-469E-9F0D-9177E237396F.png

 

 

 

E0D38A76-E306-4F5E-8C28-BC8E3B50C5F2.png

Edited by stainesbloke
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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk 72asl

Looking like a repeat of last weekend again to me? Good for the west and south west of the region to see a covering again. Of course things could change and I hope we get a more elongated low meaning less of a mild wraparound for the rest of us.

Personally my interest is more into next week now and the chance of seeing some true cold air advected west but we just need that Genoa low to get on the scene to help us out!

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
6 hours ago, andymcpool said:

Sure feels cold when I stick my head out the window!

Morning all,

From a very mild S.E. London, as can be seen below, from recent temperatures.

image.thumb.png.159bc3327d1ae08566d6268f516ce707.png

Have you been talking to my Wife, Andy?

Really can't understand her insistence, on having the Central Heating timed to come on at 4 AM?

We are currently in a very mild air mass.

 image.thumb.png.d187cd9630a5c1f99e26b4643433b372.png

Even more nonsensical, is her decision to have the Bedroom fan on, at the same time?? 

Now, my Wife is a Lady of a certain age and subject to, warm episodes!!

Why not turn both appliances off? Surely that amounts to the same thing.

Actually woke up in a sweat, crazy for 28th January!!

My Wife's argument is that she's worried about frozen pipes??

Even in that coldish snap that we've just experienced, we were nowhere near that sort of territory!!

I've stated many times before, that we live in a very small House, in the inner London Borough of Lewisham.

There is no way our loft is going to get cold enough, for frozen and then burst pipes, to occur.

My Wife counters with, "Have you ever seen the state of a House, after pipes have burst?"

I've lived in much colder properties than this and never had any burst pipe, problems!!

Where's the "banging your head against a brick wall" emoji, when you need it?

You're married to someone who has been interested in Meteorology for around 55 Years but still don't take his advice?? Crazy.

Meanwhile, in other Weather news.

Still very encouraged by the overnight runs, all of the Models are continuing with the theme of Atlantic Lows disrupting, and throwing troughs, South-Eastwards across the U.K.

Don't think the Upper Air will be cold enough to support Snow, on Sunday. As can be seen on the ECM 850hPa Chart for Sunday, below:

image.thumb.png.685891b86206e95542300c1b42860a23.png

Further out, and I apologise for using that word potential again!!

Quite a few of the Models, going for height rises to our North, resulting in a cold Easterly.

Which will be quite a bit colder, than what we've recently experienced, As can be seen from the ECM Charts for Day 10, Sun.7th Feb:

image.thumb.png.da8297efed2b62a2d785aff6a5f93194.png image.thumb.png.8148d6be86ecfe593e19641688ab6585.png

Regards,

Tom. 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

I don’t think precip will be a problem this weekend, if we miss out it will be due to temps the wrong side of marginal. It could be a sleet fest, especially as the ground won’t be frozen solid beforehand (like last weekend ) Meto still on the fence. Wondering if there will any warnings issued at 11am (usual time for them) if I’d they will resist for now

7DA890BC-748B-4B21-8795-A5F84B6F3EFB.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
1 hour ago, Jamie M said:

image.thumb.png.4cd983195fe8642d7aa7c42a1d3038b1.png

image.thumb.png.73dad23ff03553706ccbbce8143d9246.png

Slight northern bump in position on UKV 03z compared to 15z, just makes it further E into the more conductive cold air that's undercutting it. I'd expect it to start to shift south in the next few runs so I'm really not raising any hopes.

Oh no not the UKV charts appearing again These charts need binning after last weekend, surely? They were so wrong! 

I'll be be keeping an eye on the GFS over the next few days as I believe that is the way to go, but I can see arguments for a South and North shift going forward... inconclusive as yet! Interesting times. 

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