South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Snow pretty much gone this morning.. Not bad 2 days of laying snow.. 

Thames is very high at Staines and Chertsey.. Very soon its going to flood the open land at Chertsey I think.. It usually does this every few years though 

[Wimbledon88]

7c and drizzle just now in the capital. 

Mild day ahead. Usable as they say. 

Lots of rain in the forecast for the next few days. Windy at times too. 

No issues with water restrictions next summer. 

February looking very interesting according to Met Office extended outook. Those extended forecasts been remarkably accurate this winter. 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

Much milder here in S.E. London, this Morning.

Just wanted to repeat my Post, of Yesterday Morning:

QUOTE: 

"00z Model runs seemed to have brought an air of despondency, to the Model Thread.

We look like having to endure a period of milder Weather, here in the South now.

But as I stated Yesterday Morning, I don't think the Models have a definite handle on the way forward, post around Day 4.

IMO, Atlantic Lows are looking to disrupt to our West, as small wedges of positive heights look to develop to our N.E."

Still a few negative Posts on the Model Thread this Morning but IMO plenty to be encouraged about.

ALL 00z Runs I've viewed this Morning, show plenty of disruption to incoming Lows, in the Atlantic, forcing them to elongate to the S.E . 

The "big" 3 Models, all show prime evidence of this at Day 5.

        00z ECM (t120) Mon 1st Feb.                   00z GFS (t120) Mon 1st Feb. 

     

      00z UKMO (t120) Mon 1st Feb

 

Just want to make one final post about S,E. Meteorologist Ian Currie's, Weather Book offer to South East Regional Members.

I spoke to Mr.Currie Yesterday Evening, to ascertain which of his County Weather Books, remain part of the offer.

Ian still has a few of the Kent Weather Books left.

There are No remaining copies of the Essex and Sussex Editions but he may be able to "rustle up", a Surrey Book. 

He has quite a few Berkshire and Hampshire/Isle of Wight Editions left.

He also told me that he's stumbled across a Hardback Edition, of a Norfolk/Suffolk version:

Ian also told me that he has a few copies of "London's Hurricane".

A  128 Page account of the great Storm, on the Night of 16th October, 1987.

As I stated Yesterday Morning, for one of the County Weather Books, plus Frosts, Freezes  and Fairs and a copy of Mr. Currie's Quarterly Magazine, Weather Eye, The package of those 3 Books, will just cost you a very generous £15, with no extra for Postage and Packing.

If you'd like to also purchase London's Hurricane, I will get another quote from Mr.Currie but it won't be a lot extra.

I will be contacting Mr. Currie this Morning, as another Member has expressed an interest, in his offer.

I just want to reiterate again, that there is NO financial benefit gained by Yours Truly.

Just a wish for like minded Weather enthusiasts, to enjoy these very informative Weather Books.

For those Members wondering about Mr.Currie's Meteorological CV, below are some of the highlights of his "Weather Career":

"For many years Ian was Telewest Cable 17 TV's weatherman.

Presented Weather Watch on BBC Southern Counties and frequently features on BBC stations across the Home Counties.

Lectured at Somerset House London about the historical London 'Frost Fairs' and featured in programme for BBC Radio Four.

Appeared on BBC South 'Inside Out Series' describing events such as the ‘Sussex Avalanche of 1836’ and the record -breaking hail of September 1958.

Featured on 'The One Show' on BBC TV.

Each month provides a monthly forecast for BBC Radio Surrey and Sussex’s ‘Dig It’ gardening programme.

Ian featured on Carlton TV 10th Anniversary programme of the great October 1987 gale having successfully forecast it.

Ian provided information for and took part in the BBC Radio 4 series ‘Strange Weather Days’.

Ian was a guest on Libby Purvis’s BBC Radio 4 Midweek programme.

Ian has featured in BBC TV’s well-known and much loved ‘Country File’ programme.

Ian featured on BBC one’s ‘Wild Weather’ programme in September 2010.

Ian talked about weather observers on Channel 4’ s Big Breakfast Show and explained about weather forecasts on Meridian TV’s ‘Rural rides’ Series."

As I stated Yesterday, please drop me a P.M., if any of you are interested in Mr.Currie's offer and I'll put you in touch with Ian.

Finally, after speaking to Ian last Night, he is still expecting a colder than average February, with some Snow prospects, for our Region.

Much thanks to Malcolm (Blessed Weather), for allowing me to promote Mr.Currie's offer to South East Regional Members.

I promise that is the very last time, I will mention this offer and will stick to interpreting Forecasts and their impacts, for our Region.

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited January 27, 2021 by TomSE12

[Kentspur]

Latest Icon run is interesting for our region Saturday initially a band of rain moves in but this looks like turning to sleet and snow according to this latest model run through Saturday evening with some heavy Precip particularly over Kent (closest to the channel/north sea)

Edited January 27, 2021 by Kentspur

[Mark wheeler]

3 hours ago, Surrey said:

Snow pretty much gone this morning.. Not bad 2 days of laying snow.. 

Thames is very high at Staines and Chertsey.. Very soon its going to flood the open land at Chertsey I think.. It usually does this every few years though 

Indeed Surrey , Harry won’t see the day out by the looks of it . 

[Southender]

BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC Weather Centre.

If it wasn't for the decent long range outlook, I would be throwing the towel in on this winter.

Perhaps 2nd week of February onwards will deliver...

[Eagle Eye]

Good morning everybody, 

Back to being miserable again but nice to see some Snow for our Region again back to business as usual though, the endless torrent of Expectation really takes the toll on our expectations of a really good Period of snow. The 2nd warming gradually beginning to occur and is it me or correct me if I'm wrong here, 2018 saw a second warming stage. 

Looking at mid-January It Was very Similar To What We Are seeing now. 

A Few Weeks ago we had the Charts Very Similar to this. 

2018

2021

 

Then the 2ND Warming stage began. 

2018

2021

2018

So who knows we could have a very cold period bringing some of that hefty Snow that we really crave for. 

Xander

[Wimbledon88]

1 hour ago, Mark wheeler said:

Indeed Surrey , Harry won’t see the day out by the looks of it . 

You can't beat an English snowman.

[Atmogenic]

23 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

It felt like that yesterday while the sun was out. It felt deceptively warm. 

it was nice i think 2 days ago when it was clear skies and no wind, though still cold when not in the sun but was pleasant just like how spring usually is (if it goes to plan)  and the closer we get, the better (for me though)

[snowrye]

4 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

Indeed Surrey , Harry won’t see the day out by the looks of it . 

Don't be so sure, he's made of stern stuff is harry

[clark3r]

Seems another marginal snow event possible again this weekend, wonder if it will be dajavu, living by the coast not expecting other than cold rain again 

[Gowon]

5 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

Indeed Surrey , Harry won’t see the day out by the looks of it . 

He's pear shaped.. all butt and thighs and narrow round the waist 

[lawrenk]

Cracking runs again this afternoon for the longer range. Hopefully, those of us in the more SE of the region will see our patience rewarded in Feb.

[bluebell]

38 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Seems another marginal snow event possible again this weekend, wonder if it will be dajavu, living by the coast not expecting other than cold rain again 

Yes so I gather, but I am oh so bored bored bored bored bored bored bored bored bored with all the watching and waiting, ifs and buts, marginal . My non scientific personal optimism for a snowy blast in my locale has dropped to less than 0.5%, I hope to be proved wrong of course...

In the meantime  I’m going to think ahead to spring and summer, warmth, scented flowers, buzzing bees, cuckoos and bbq’s.

[Polaris]

Rain incoming to fall on saturated ground. Thoughts out to those already with high river levels and current floods.
 

At least @Wimbledon88 is thrilled at the prospect.
Hopefully a window of dry out tomorrow.
 

[Hotspur62]

Been second mildest day of the year here hitting 8.7 here in Locksbottom and was mainly dry with only the occasional bit of light drizzle.Looks a wet night though for most of the region but the rain will clear hopefully early to mid morning to give us a dry day and most likely mildest day of the year with 12 degrees looking possible.

Friday day light hours looks usable and not quite as mild but still above average (8-9 degrees) and then all attention to the weekend.Again it looks like most in the SE thread look the wrong side of marginal with it being wet rather than white although I think counties north of the Thames like herts bucks Oxfordshire with a bit of elevation may get in the act along with the customary Midlands!!Too much volatility to look past Sunday but looking past that it could be a case of more frustration next week as the boundary between cold and mild seems like the Midlands.We just need a 100 mile correction south for us all to join in the fun FINALLY
 

stay safe

[scrat]

Looks like it's going to be positively balmy here tomorrow with a top temp of 14?!?  If the sun comes out, you'll find me on the patio 

[Polaris]

6 minutes ago, scrat said:

Looks like it's going to be positively balmy here tomorrow with a top temp of 14?!?  If the sun comes out, you'll find me on the patio 

With a break in the deluge ? should feel very pleasant tomorrow

[clark3r]

2 hours ago, bluebell said:

Yes so I gather, but I am oh so bored bored bored bored bored bored bored bored bored with all the watching and waiting, ifs and buts, marginal . My non scientific personal optimism for a snowy blast in my locale has dropped to less than 0.5%, I hope to be proved wrong of course...

In the meantime  I’m going to think ahead to spring and summer, warmth, scented flowers, buzzing bees, cuckoos and bbq’s.

I’m ready for spring and summer too lets hope it is a repeat of last spring 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Evening all,

QUOTE: Hotspur62, above: 

"Then all attention to the weekend .Again it looks like most in the SE thread look the wrong side of marginal with it being wet rather than white although I think counties north of the Thames like herts bucks Oxfordshire with a bit of elevation may get in the act along with the customary Midlands!!Too much volatility to look past Sunday but looking past that it could be a case of more frustration next week as the boundary between cold and mild seems like the Midlands.

We just need a 100 mile correction south for us all to join in the fun FINALLY"
 

Yes a little correction South, in Weather terms like popping to your Neighbour to borrow a pint of milk, with a Face Mask on, of course!! 

Still very encouraged by the 12z Model runs. Plenty of disruption to those Atlantic Lows, still expected further ahead.

Below, is a Video clip of MeteoGroup's extended Outlook, with that " Beatnik" bloke again. Apologies Tomasz!!

Weather for the week ahead - BBC Weather

P.S. It's not the Weather giving you a headache Tom, it's your fringe.

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited January 27, 2021 by TomSE12

[snowrye]

3 hours ago, bluebell said:

Yes so I gather, but I am oh so bored bored bored bored bored bored bored bored bored with all the watching and waiting, ifs and buts, marginal . My non scientific personal optimism for a snowy blast in my locale has dropped to less than 0.5%, I hope to be proved wrong of course...

In the meantime  I’m going to think ahead to spring and summer, warmth, scented flowers, buzzing bees, cuckoos and bbq’s.

Indeed, im longing to be able to open the french doors at my flat, watching the squirrels jumping through the trees, and listening to the beautiful evening song of the blackbirds, trouble is, we'll all be moaning it's too hot, myself included

[Hotspur62]

7 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Evening all,

QUOTE: Hotspur62, above: 

"Then all attention to the weekend .Again it looks like most in the SE thread look the wrong side of marginal with it being wet rather than white although I think counties north of the Thames like herts bucks Oxfordshire with a bit of elevation may get in the act along with the customary Midlands!!Too much volatility to look past Sunday but looking past that it could be a case of more frustration next week as the boundary between cold and mild seems like the Midlands.

We just need a 100 mile correction south for us all to join in the fun FINALLY"
 

Yes a little correction South, in Weather terms like popping to your Neighbour to borrow a pint of milk, with a Face Mask on, of course!! 

Still very encouraged by the 12z Model runs. Plenty of disruption to those Atlantic Lows, still expected further ahead.

Below, is a Video clip of MeteoGroup's extended Outlook, with that " Beatnik" bloke again. Apologies Tomasz!!

Weather for the week ahead - BBC Weather

Regards,

Tom. 

Interesting looking at Tomasz and the week ahead forecast as the beeb have London for 11-12 degrees again from next Tuesday.That seems pretty mild and obviously their thinking is any wedges of high pressure on weekend will not be enough to disrupt things enough to get the south colder.Probably right tbh and will be late next week before the SE may have some exciting charts to look at.All fascinating stuff still with all options open

[Stu_London]

Can't see much hope for this weekend - maybe a slight chance for the very north of the region if there is a decent undercut.

Longer term the models are showing their familiar pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. If the trend firms up then perhaps 10-12 days might give some interest for cold and snow, but frankly there is so much model discord at short range, I wouldn't go shouting from any rooftops until at least after the weekend. 

 

[James1979]

3 hours ago, Polaris said:

Rain incoming to fall on saturated ground. Thoughts out to those already with high river levels and current floods.
 

At least @Wimbledon88 is thrilled at the prospect.
Hopefully a window of dry out tomorrow.
 

"Thoughts go out to those with high river levels" etc etc followed by an immediate shaming of someone  @Wimbledon88 because they like/dont mind rain/have a different view to you on a weather forum. Unbelievable. 

[Tom Jarvis]

So will Sussex miss out the umpteenth time again this weekend? Or can we get more trends south