South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Dover has been dry, cloudy with sunny spells for a while now, I've no problem with that continuing, as it's just not cold enough to turn the shower train white 

This reminds me of a similar spell, back in February or March (I think) 1969: maxes of 5C, wall-to-wall cloud, and a 'wintry mix' of precipitation... I can still recall clearly, watching rain turn to sleet, then to graupel, then to snow, back to sleet and finally back to rain again. And, that's the only Esperanto lesson I can remember!

[NewEra21]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The southern North Sea is more than 2C warmer than average in places, it’s no surprise we’re struggling more.

OSTIA

GHRSST-PP.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 

Yeah, this week has just proved with such a warm north sea we really do need those -12 and lower uppers to truly put us in the game. I'm not even sure -10 uppers would even cut it, as we've already had the odd -9 this week with nothing to show for it.

[TommyB]

Sunny spells developing here, it's actually lovely to see the sun even if it is brief. 3.3c

[Met4Cast]

13 minutes ago, Jason M said:

I suspect the issue for most is warmer layers higher up rather than SSTs warming the surface layer. That's not to say SSTs have no relevance but i suspect its not the key factor this time. Even on the other side of the water its been wintry mix away from higher areas. 

Air aloft is more than cold enough & supportive of snowfall. It's the surface layer/dew points that are the wrong side of marginal 

[NewEra21]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Air aloft is more than cold enough & supportive of snowfall. It's the surface layer/dew points that are the wrong side of marginal 

Should we all just open our freezer doors to bring those DPs down?

[warrenb]

The problem  we have is that the ground level air has been so modified by the super warm North Sea and the 850's are just not low enough to cool the base level enough to mix out the warming modification.

[SMU]

145

heavy  Rain/ sleet mix new ash green 2.5 / 2.1

150M

West kingsdown

Heavy sleet & snow ~ est 1.8 / 1.4

240M

Est freezing level today 400M.

When you take into consideration the height advantage we have fallen short by about 4c.

Net 2-3C on the uppers & 1c modification on the short sea track.

Based on all of tbe above -11c uppers seems to be the new benchmark for settling snow ( convective ) at sea level for kent....

Edited January 5, 2021 by Steve Murr

[SLEETY]

only 2 gfs permutation get below minus 11 upper air  out of 30 in 06 run

[Matt H]

I’m excited to be able to report a light rain shower here in Cambridge, I wasn’t lucky enough to get it on video though.The current temperature here is 3.9C. The wait for snow goes on, we really have been unlucky in this region so far.

Edited January 5, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[Zak M]

4 hours ago, snowking said:

It's certainly been frustrating so far.

Even the anaprop circles completely around my location

I think that's just some glitch. You can clearly see the gap if you run through the previous frames of the radar.

Also, it looks like I live around a mile or two away from you, judging by your location Kris. How's this winter been so far for you? I noticed that there was some sleet on the radar near Bedford this morning but all I got was cold rain hahaha

Edited January 5, 2021 by Zak M

[Thinon]

32 minutes ago, warrenb said:

The problem  we have is that the ground level air has been so modified by the super warm North Sea and the 850's are just not low enough to cool the base level enough to mix out the warming modification.

Yes, I've been trying to explain this over the last week or so. 850s may seem low enough on paper but they are simply nowhere near cold enough to negate the surface level warming over the North Sea. But it seems people would rather listen to the optimists and get their false hopes up, and then moan when there's no mini Ice Age.

 

I see the BBC are forecasting 10C for London next week. The British winter has no shame.

[Eagle Eye]

Well Today has been a let down compared to th possibility's but we move on you know me always Enthusiastic and looking forward to the next chance.

Here's the enthusiastic lowdown.

Margin for error is pratically none as we see the -6oc 850hpa appering on the charts however with that what we need is certainly a deep 500mb to up the chances considering how our Weather has been on good chances.

To our West is where we find the stronger part of the Low yet again and we wwold want an Easternly shift or Colder 850hpa Temperatures

However on the 2nd Chart which is Earlier you can see a stronger Low which could possibly with the right 850hpa Temperatures bring Snow 

To go along with closer to now we have -5/-6 850hpa's so if we want long deep Snow we'll need a deep low due to the typical uppers, for a long Snow we would need something aproaching deep blue due to the hpa 500 Geopression can also be acted on the 850hpa Temperatures and so with a Deep Purple, very deep you can get -2 850hpa's to still bring pretty deep Snow but of course we just want a thing lying and at the moment it just seems like that's the most we're gonna get but this could change. This is due to my understanding at the moment.

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by Sheldon Cooper

[Tim Bland]

50 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

145

heavy  Rain/ sleet mix new ash green 2.5 / 2.1

150M

West kingsdown

Heavy sleet & snow ~ est 1.8 / 1.4

240M

Est freezing level today 400M.

When you take into consideration the height advantage we have fallen short by about 4c.

Net 2-3C on the uppers & 1c modification on the short sea track.

Based on all of tbe above -11c uppers seems to be the new benchmark for settling snow ( convective ) at sea level for kent....

I’d argue that it depends on the weather over Belgium / Holland and scandi as well as sea temperatures though. If they were under low DPs and frozen over then An easterly with uppers of -4c could bring snow to sea level in kent

[SMU]

1 minute ago, Thinon said:

Yes, I've been trying to explain this over the last week or so. 850s may seem low enough on paper but they are simply nowhere near cold enough to negate the surface level warming over the North Sea. But it seems people would rather listen to the optimists and get their false hopes up, and then moan when there's no mini Ice Age.

 

I see the BBC are forecasting 10C for London next week. The British winter has no shame.

I dont see anyone in this thread ramping up false hope, the line of snow has always oscillated between 100 & 300M however in the past 48 hours the models reduced the scope of the cold from a possible -9c to a weaker -7c.

The net effect of this through the dewpoints has been raise the freezing level up by about 200M

We all understand the variables & on this particular occasion its gone the wrong side of favourable

[Eagle Eye]

Tuesday 19 Jan - Tuesday 2 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for Atlantic mobility to weaken which perhaps allows conditions, at least in the north, to become drier and for temperatures to be closer to average. However, there is still a chance of cold air outbreaks in the north as flow across Scandinavia pushes across the North Sea. This would confine more unsettled conditions to the south, as well as milder than average temperatures. Further, this boundary between the cold and milder conditions could also allow for some significant snowfall where the two air masses.

Met Office Update would be brilliant for us with a more south movement as per usual. Of Course this is Very Far Out Though and probably won't happen. 

[danm]

A bit of sleetyness here in NE London. 

Edited January 5, 2021 by danm

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, danm said:

It’s just bad luck surely? There’s nothing particularly different about the climate of Worcester or Wolverhampton, both of which have seen snow over the last week, and the SE? We missed out on the showers and the troughs that passed over the Midlands/North/SW a few days ago and right now the air we are sourcing is just the wrong side of marginal. Not all easterlies produce snow. In 2010 the cold and snow started with an E/NE airflow in late November. We had 3/4 days of snow showers in that spell. 

Generally we have had rotten luck for years, and in recent times we have remained dry when conditions were fine for snow but the wind direction wasn’t on our side then. This isn’t exactly a mild easterly contrary to what the BBC were saying at the time, the air is rather cold just falling short especially on dews. This set up in February could have delivered.

Today is the most depressing day of the winter, very dark and gloomy, cold rain and 3C sums up our experience with the winter so far, imo afar can’t say country has seen a true cold spell until we join in, people will say that is biased but it is a better measure of a cold spells significance. Also factor in a significant proportion of population of U.K. live in London and Home Counties a lot are missing out, despite relatively small area.

Edited January 5, 2021 by Daniel*

[Eagle Eye]

Can anyone recccomend any Weather Books that will help me with how Stratopheric Temperature and Geopression along with 850hpa and how they affect our Weather or any weather books that you found helpfull thanks.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

Air aloft is more than cold enough & supportive of snowfall. It's the surface layer/dew points that are the wrong side of marginal 

And the mid layers? That help to decide surface temps and due point, how do the look?

[TROY]

Rain again here after that sunny spell. If the North Sea temps are 2c higher then normal, that bodes well for a Hot Summer, thats something to look forward too.

[Jackski4]

2 minutes ago, TROY said:

Rain again here after that sunny spell. If the North Sea temps are 2c higher then normal, that bodes well for a Hot Summer, thats something to look forward too.

Clutching at straws now mate

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, TROY said:

Rain again here after that sunny spell. If the North Sea temps are 2c higher then normal, that bodes well for a Hot Summer, thats something to look forward too.

Every action has it's equal and opposite reaction, someone's gonna have an awfull Summer after a great winter. 

[dubmuffin]

There's green on the radar but can't tell where because the overlay hides the locations. One thing I do know is that it's not here.

I heard reports of snow this morning in Banstead 

[Jackski4]

Nearly time for the 12z mayhem!

[danm]

18 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Generally we have had rotten luck for years, and in recent times we have remained dry when conditions were fine for snow but the wind direction wasn’t on our side then. This isn’t exactly a mild easterly contrary to what the BBC were saying at the time, the air is rather cold just falling short especially on dews. This set up in February could have delivered.

Today is the most depressing day of the winter, very dark and gloomy, cold rain and 3C sums up our experience with the winter so far, imo afar can’t say country it has seen a true cold spell until we join in, people will say that is biased but it is a better measure of a cold spells significance. Also factor in a significant proportion of population of U.K. live in London and Home Counties a lot are missing out, despite relatively small area.

I even remember back in the 90s us getting unlucky - it's the story of UK winters unfortunately. With us being an island nation on the eastern edge of the Atlantic means it usually takes many different things falling into place, at least in lowland Britain, for deep cold and heavy snowfall. So many different factors can be on the wrong side of marginal to scupper it, and it only takes one of those sometimes, as opposed to continental climates. 

Edited January 5, 2021 by danm