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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    25 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Looking at the Met office website its pretty much a match, so the Met office site is using the UKV as well.

    Pivot sweetspot on the 15z UKV looks like being around the St Albans area.

    The ukv is swinging every run as has been said ....the 15z has moved east of the 12z run 

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    Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Weather Preferences: Any
  • Location: Portsmouth
    17 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    For coastal areas in our region, it with be important to see what is happening in the south coast thread early tomorrow.  If Isle of Wight sees snow, then relax. If it doesn’t, then start looking at Southampton and Portsmouth. If they don’t, then the marginal risk is great further east. ( obviously further east has better chances with more continental flow and probably lower dps 

    Is there even a south coast thread im just north of portsmouth ?.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    15 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Also mate I'm probably 15-20 miles inland north of Portsmouth, so if I struggle with 100m+ in altitude, that probably won't mean anything good for those further E/ENE of my location.

    Still I'd be very dissapointed if it goes wrong for my backdoor. If it does, then surely the Downs at 200-300m will do the job! I'll get my snow fix however I can!

    EDIT - the further east however might also contend with slightly longer earlier morning warming which will up the temperatures modestly given the upper airflow is not all that cold.

    Just worked out that I am 69m asl and 16 miles from the coast.  I’d give myself 0.5°c for altitude and 1°C for sea modification.  Small margins

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    Posted
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, gales, all extreme weather really!
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
    9 minutes ago, Hammer said:

    Could end up being Northern limit that. However at moment consensus is that it will likely be somewhat south of your location. Bedford sort of area.

    I'm going to be on the fringe again here arent?!Still, saw some snow today and west ham won again...  not sure what I did to please the Gods this weekend! 😁 coyi!

    Edited by James1979
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    Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON

    BBC app just updated at 830pm 

    Has my location down for 11 hours of falling snow 

    From 9am with 3 hours heavy snow and 8 light 😨

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    Posted
  • Location: Headcorn
  • Location: Headcorn
    1 minute ago, Britneyfan said:

    Well looking at the radar the system if further north and a lot more extensive than the ukv was showing 

    That’s not good for Kent is it ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich

    Right now the occlusion appears to be about 2 hours faster than most high-res models, and a tad further north - 12z EC seems to have a reasonable handle on its current position, which if that were to verify would pivot somewhere just south of Birmingham with ~7cm there, also means a much shorter-duration event for areas near/south of the M4 and hence smaller amounts. Would in theory bring more of East Anglia into play, but equally an easterly onshore wind would probably keep a lot of the precipitation along/east of the A140 and A12 as rain/sleet.

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    Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton

    Certainly looks further north then on the models - be interesting do we see any adjustments shortly on the 18z 

     

    it’s now cast and tbh I only believe I’m getting snow when I actually see it fall so many non events 😂

    523FE061-9E0F-448F-B011-40D647C7FE8E.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    28 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Just worked out that I am 69m asl and 16 miles from the coast.  I’d give myself 0.5°c for altitude and 1°C for sea modification.  Small margins

    I'm about 19 miles north of the coast, but got about 120m of altitude which may swing the difference. Still broadly I should be a fairly decent barometer for your location upstream.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    3 minutes ago, southbank said:

    Certainly looks further north then on the models - be interesting do we see any adjustments shortly on the 18z 

    it’s now cast and tbh I only believe I’m getting snow when I actually see it fall so many non events 😂

    523FE061-9E0F-448F-B011-40D647C7FE8E.png

    Not really, the band is a little stronger further north than some models expected, and its definately further east.

    What IS interesting is the band is still more or less slanted N-S.

    This is important as it means the LP hasn't yet formed to an extent at least at mid levels to bend and develop some banding on the front. There maybe JUST the first hints happening but thats later than nearly all models at this point.

    This IMO suggests both a quicker forward speed towards our neck of the woods and also probably a pivot further north an east than some of the models.

    12z ECM looks fairly close to the mark thus far.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    By the way the radar likely will fill in as it gets closer.

    We maybe seeing for the southern half of the band something like radar attenuation as the rain bands are decently out in the Irish SEa.

    As it moves closer you'll probably see the individual higher precip areas start to get surrounded by weaker returns. Indeed if you look at the last couple of hours in the seas south of Ireland you can already see it.

    So it will look like the band is strengthening, when in reality the radar is simply 'seeing' the rain band more accurately as it moves closer to the radar sites in Wales/SW.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bromley, SE London (60m ASL)
  • Location: Bromley, SE London (60m ASL)

    A thank you to everyone in here making sense of it all, hopefully ECM 12z is close to the mark, don’t want it going too far north... Surely London can’t go from too north to too south in the space of a few hours 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
    7 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

     

    Awful graphics you can hardly see the snow from the clouds and tbh looks like a very weak area of precipitation and a lot furrher south.... definitely radar and window watching from now on 

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    Posted
  • Location: Headcorn
  • Location: Headcorn

    I was going to watch ufc and then the cricket tonight and stay up tonight but it looks like my area in Kent is a bust but good luck to the rest of you !!

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    Posted
  • Location: Burgess Hill, West Sussex. 44m asl
  • Location: Burgess Hill, West Sussex. 44m asl
    19 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

    A thank you to everyone in here making sense of it all, hopefully ECM 12z is close to the mark, don’t want it going too far north... Surely London can’t go from too north to too south in the space of a few hours 😂

    Would not surprise me!🙄😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic

    Fingers crossed for everyone tomorrow, will be watching with interest. Looking quite positive for a covering across at least some of the region. 

    Been a foul day here in Prague, a mix of heavy rain, sleet and wet snow, maximum temperature of 2°C which washed the remnants of last week’s snow away. Now snowing and settling again, am surprised as everything is so wet. 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    11 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

    Awful graphics you can hardly see the snow from the clouds and tbh looks like a very weak area of precipitation and a lot furrher south.... definitely radar and window watching from now on 

    There is another tweet from a few minutes earlier ...... Stevenage was too far north of what that showed for snowfall .....barely made it north of London east of the M1 

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    Posted
  • Location: GU35, Bordon, East Hampshire
  • Location: GU35, Bordon, East Hampshire

    Time to leave the blogs and the forecasts for tonight. Tomorrow I think I will be letting what falls on my head be my method. Enoy whats happening outside and try not to focus on your screens too much. Good luck and ill be back tomorrow night to talk about what a cracking day of the white stuff we have had. Fingers crossed haha.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netley Abbey
  • Location: Netley Abbey
    1 hour ago, South coaster said:

    Is there even a south coast thread im just north of portsmouth ?.

    The winds are going to be onshore along the entire south coast, v little chance of snow unless 10/15 miles inland which is a shame. Im in southampton and this often happens, an easterly or a northerly wind required...

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    The 18z GFS has sped up a little but its still too slow on the forward motion.

    You can probably adjust everything further east than whatever it is about to show to some extent.

    18z GFS is more marginal again for the far south as well it seems and appears to have the snow border a little further north again, though its not too much of a difference at this point.

    However at this point I'd not take anything the models show too seriously unless they all swing in the same direction, especially when it seems they don't have a great grip on the actual evolution at the moment.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    There is another tweet from a few minutes earlier ...... Stevenage was too far north of what that showed for snowfall .....barely made it north of London east of the M1 

    So confusing with all the models, some going north some going south with the snow, all i know is the front is further north than i was expecting so in conclusion.....i have no idea who will or wont see snow tomorrow 🤣

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