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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
    4 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

    Not a bad 18z Icon for the Thames estuary region although looks like rain at later timeframes and it seems like it sometimes misses places to the south/east of me especially in NW Kent places like Surrey Bucks Berks Herts look the sweet spot still 

    Screenshot_20210123-193834_Samsung Internet.jpg

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    Screenshot_20210123-194000_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210123-194023_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Looks good

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
    21 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

    Looks atrocious for most of us in the SE Corner

    I would not be giving up hope, we are talking micro detail now. For example if the low becomes more elongated than currently modelled then we will have a more continental flow which will lower dew points always from direct coasts.  Anyone within the boundaries of that precipitation will have a chance of snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hassocks,West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and severe weather events.
  • Location: Hassocks,West Sussex

    Evening all,hope everyone is well! Currently - 1 in hassocks,West Sussex. I think the Chiltern Hills and Surrey Hills could see a fairly decent amount and to a lesser extent perhaps the South downs West of ditchling beacon. So based on this I'm going to go for  10cm of snow at newlands corner in the Surrey Hills.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
    7 minutes ago, Snowy Bob said:

    Ah well. Yet another snow event and for us peeps in the far SE corner I fear its doing to be oh so near, oh so far I think.

    I can't help but think that we never really do well from west to east fronts - its always been BFTEs that have created snowmageddon down here!

     

    I very much agree, speaking as a “near the south coaster”.

    Two that stick in the mind that did deliver for us down here were Jan 13 and Feb 12, though the latter was touch and go as Brighton (20 miles west) just saw rain.

    Personally, anything up to now, including tomorrow, hasn’t excited too much, as it’s all felt very marginal and transient. February could be far more interesting, as there seems to be some consistently tasty charts being produced, showing a properly cold easterly which, for us down here, is far more likely to result in snow that once it’s settled hangs around for a bit. Just need it to happen, in the first half of Feb, before the sun gets stronger.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    The UKV looks ok for most of the SE away from the south coast. The main thing that helps is the system coming through quicker than previously expected. Still some uncertainties about how far north it ends up.

    The extra 2hrs earlier than expected really prevents any morning temperature increases before the front comes through, especially further east in the region. 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    The UKV looks ok for most of the SE away from the south coast. The main thing that helps is the system coming through quicker than previously expected. Still some uncertainties about how far north it ends up.

    The extra 2hrs earlier than expected really prevents any morning temperature increases before the front comes through, especially further east in the region. 

    Where is ukv viewable Kold ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Brighton
    10 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

    Not a bad 18z Icon for the Thames estuary region although looks like rain at later timeframes and it seems like it sometimes misses places to the south/east of me especially in NW Kent places like Surrey Bucks Berks Herts look the sweet spot still 

    Screenshot_20210123-193834_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210123-193855_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210123-193910_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210123-193946_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210123-194000_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210123-194023_Samsung Internet.jpg

    That gives me a little hope for Brighton, i'm closer to the Downs than the sea but still wasn't expecting much, if any.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    Just now, bluearmy said:

    Where is ukv viewable Kold ? 

    Its on Net weather mate, though I've actually been cheeky and looked at the Midlands thread where someone has put up a screengrab of the 10z timeframe which looks pretty decent.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hassocks,West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and severe weather events.
  • Location: Hassocks,West Sussex
    2 minutes ago, Alpine glow said:

    That gives me a little hope for Brighton, i'm closer to the Downs than the sea but still wasn't expecting much, if any.

    I'm in hassocks just the other side of the downs and only expecting a dusting really. Perhaps woodingdean at higher elevation could see a covering your side of the downs. 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Its on Net weather mate, though I've actually been cheeky and looked at the Midlands thread where someone has put up a screengrab of the 10z timeframe which looks pretty decent.

    I think it struggles to get much further east of that screen grab before sliding away se as it breaks up ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    I think it struggles to get much further east of that screen grab before sliding away se as it breaks up ? 

    Looking at the Met office website its pretty much a match, so the Met office site is using the UKV as well.

    Pivot sweetspot on the 15z UKV looks like being around the St Albans area.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Can we please keep to local weather discussion please and not on some of the non weather related scenarios that have recently occurred. There is plenty discuss, not just tomorrow’s potential because but also the likelihood of further wintry outbreaks in the weeks ahead.

    Thank you.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire

    Radar still looks a little naff but hopefully will pick up in intensity as it moves over the sea

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    With the precip much  further north than forecast I wouldn’t worry in the north of the region....I would say ECM looks like closest fit right now 

    914B1BCB-D137-48C3-9E8B-A5FFB44730AA.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    21 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    The UKV looks ok for most of the SE away from the south coast. The main thing that helps is the system coming through quicker than previously expected. Still some uncertainties about how far north it ends up.

    The extra 2hrs earlier than expected really prevents any morning temperature increases before the front comes through, especially further east in the region. 

    The UKV is swinging all over the place I don’t have much faith in this model with this situation. While people talk down about ECM it has been the most consistent model by FAR, other models have followed it not other way around.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    For coastal areas in our region, it with be important to see what is happening in the south coast thread early tomorrow.  If Isle of Wight sees snow, then relax. If it doesn’t, then start looking at Southampton and Portsmouth. If they don’t, then the marginal risk is great further east. ( obviously further east has better chances with more continental flow and probably lower dps 

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    For coastal areas in our region, it with be important to see what is happening in the south coast thread early tomorrow.  If Isle of Wight sees snow, then relax. If it doesn’t, then start looking at Southampton and Portsmouth. If they don’t, then the marginal risk is great further east. ( obviously further east has better chances with more continental flow and probably lower dps 

    Also mate I'm probably 15-20 miles inland north of Portsmouth, so if I struggle with 100m+ in altitude, that probably won't mean anything good for those further E/ENE of my location.

    Still I'd be very dissapointed if it goes wrong for my backdoor. If it does, then surely the Downs at 200-300m will do the job! I'll get my snow fix however I can!

    EDIT - the further east however might also contend with slightly longer earlier morning warming which will up the temperatures modestly given the upper airflow is not all that cold.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    Looks like Luton area is pivot point on UkV 

    02380F17-9F8A-4A39-94FD-73CE10E8A1CD.jpeg

    C6967E96-DE51-46A0-932C-5375A5AAB9D0.jpeg

    😬😭🙈 is this the southern extent now too? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Location: Peterborough

    Any chance of snow near Peterborough tomorrow or is that too far north? I keep seeing reference to a northern trend but the MO app still has nothing forecast

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    36 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Never even knew there was a 15z icon 🤯

    Me either 😱

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    Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
    6 minutes ago, Freeman said:

    Any chance of snow near Peterborough tomorrow or is that too far north? I keep seeing reference to a northern trend but the MO app still has nothing forecast

    Could end up being Northern limit that. However at moment consensus is that it will likely be somewhat south of your location. Bedford sort of area.

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