South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Daniel*]

27 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Just a heads up for later today

More of an East Anglia affair but this is being shown on the models.

Arpege tonight

UKV agrees on trough looks quite potent so....

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

GFS 06z..snowy 

[Paul Sherman]

My forecast for this weekend

[paget]

Morning all! Have had a few days break from here trying to sort Mum and dads house out and online house shopping in Scotland! Just looking at one to the north of the Cairngorms!  
 

Am I wrong to get a bit excited that a single snow flake has appeared on the Meto forecast!? (I know not to take it too literally!) haven’t seen a flake here, last year or this! ?Farnham, Surrey) not one flake has been forecast on meto this year for here! 

Do I dare hope!!

[Nick F]

4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

My forecast for this weekend

Leigh-on-sea this weekend.

06z GFS gives us a double chance - Sunday afternoon/early evening and early Monday morning

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, paget said:

Morning all! Have had a few days break from here trying to sort Mum and dads house out and online house shopping in Scotland! Just looking at one to the north of the Cairngorms!  
 

Am I wrong to get a bit excited that a single snow flake has appeared on the Meto forecast!? (I know not to take it too literally!) haven’t seen a flake here, last year or this! ?Farnham, Surrey) not one flake has been forecast on meto this year for here! 

Do I dare hope!!

Drumnadrochit (or 'Jock The Pocket', to where my then 8-year-old daughter told all her schoolfriends she was moving to) is a lovely place to live, Paget.

I wonder what the chances, of us catching something, through Monday night into Tuesday morning are:

    

Edited January 22, 2021 by General Cluster

[Stu_London]

2 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes, very slowly. The saying “as the days get longer, the cold gets stronger”, does hold some weight, statistically. Think February is still the most likely month to get a wintry spell, (or at least it was when I was growing up). 

There is probably a few reasons for this.

SSTs get progressively colder, so maritime warming is progressively less the further into winter we go - it is only towards the very end of February that the longer daylight hours and stronger solar warming offsets this.

As the seas around our island get colder, this promotes slightly lower humidity. Lower humidity means lower dewpoints, means easier to get snow to fall and settle, even if air temps are slightly above 0C

The jet is generally less active in February than December or January. Weaker jet equally less maritime and more continental influence to our weather. 

If you had to pin one week where the potential for thermal minimum is highest, I would suggest 1st week in February.

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UKV agrees on trough looks quite potent so....

 

Hard one this.. 

Even at T+12 hours we are struggling! Lots of options 

[Delka]

Good luck to those further south who have yet to see anything this winter, the weekend could surprise some of you!

already a small chance of some flakes here tonight in Norfolk, which i definitely will be staying up late for (again!). some may be surprised but i’ve had more lamp post watching nights this year then i’ve had in years..

[TommyB]

Morning all,

Currently 2.7 in St Leonards, still very icy and frosty but lovely and sunny, really nice to see! 

[Lord Grogon]

2 hours ago, Nick F said:

UKV still not interested in Sunday, snow grazes the south coast but misses most of us

It does bring a few wintry showers east this evening

And some snow showers / flurries tomorrow afternoon

Given all the other models are showing some snow moving east across all of us Sunday, you'd think UKV would fall into line.

I know it's unscientific and stupid of me, but I really dislike the UKV.

I come along for my morning read, see all these nice big purple blobs on the ECM/GFS which I know are low res but sill gives hope of a good dumping.

And then somebody kills the dream by posting the UKV that turns those nice big blobs into pathetic little blobs. 

[Dami]

Alexa tells me it will be a 'sunny weekend' .

You heard it here first.

Currently still cold and the frost has melted. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Arpege finally coming round now.. Although its take on Sunday is strange.. 

Also agrees with GFS on the second shot later Sunday as well ... 

 

Hats of to GFS/ECM if they have done better than the high res further out ... Not a done deal yet with plenty more runs yet but good to see models firming up

Edited January 22, 2021 by Surrey

[paget]

23 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Drumnadrochit (or 'Jock The Pocket', to where my then 8-year-old daughter told all her schoolfriends she was moving to) is a lovely place to live, Paget.

I wonder what the chances, of us catching something, through Monday night into Tuesday morning are:

    

I’ve stayed in Drumnadrochit a few times on holiday it’s a lovely area, we now holiday on the West Coast in a tiny village called Shieldaig but will probably need to live nearer a city/town for business! It’s a gorgeous (and at times snowy country!!) x 

[Eagle Eye]

16 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

My forecast for this weekend

Lol

Here's mine, 

Asuuming that we do get the predicted - 4 to - 6 uppers that are predicted along with a pretty low thickness dam we would most likely get the coldest 1with frontal rain just after noon on the Sunday chance we could get some early on Snow turning to Sleet and then Rain for the most part of the rest of the day however that earlier on Snow could create a light dusting. 

[Jamie M]

Not again

[Nick F]

Just now, Jamie M said:

Not again

I take it the MO aren't going with their own model 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

2 minutes ago, Hurricane Squad said:

Lol

Here's mine, 

Asuuming that we do get the predicted - 4 to - 6 uppers that are predicted along with a pretty low thickness dam we would most likely get the coldest 1with frontal rain just after noon on the Sunday chance we could get some early on Snow turning to Sleet and then Rain for the most part of the rest of the day however that earlier on Snow could create a light dusting. 

DPs look around -3 when it arrives and only rise to around 0c with a very small finger over positive DPs on the south coast.. Temps barley look like going above 0-1c (slightly warmer on coast as normal and risk lower)

Don't forget tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be pretty cold with lows of -3 or -4 aiding our chance in seeing some snow

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Nick F said:

I take it the MO aren't going with their own model 

Called the rrfm, the ridiculous Ramping forecast model. 

[Jamie M]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

I take it the MO aren't going with their own model 

I could probably put a bet on how much that wording is going to change in the next day or so. It'll go from "turning into snow" to "turning into sleet, hail and snow over the higher ground"

[Hammer]

I just make it in to the warning area for Sunday. I fully expect it will be south of here though. Its nailed on to miss me.

[Jamie M]

This does baffle me though how its labelled as likely on the matrix when flooding in Wales from earlier this week wasn't labelled as that. I'm no expert but that is a bit silly.

[Tim Bland]

Hoping for a shift east...looks like they are hedging their bets on a middle ground between the models that push he front south so it doesn’t make it very Far East and the like if ECM which clear it well accords east Anglia into the North Sea. It could go either way still for our area...could be nothing or 5cm Surely we will know by this evening 

[Jamie M]

I see that suggests the kitchen sink early Saturday then.

 

[snowblind]

10 minutes ago, Hammer said:

I just make it in to the warning area for Sunday. I fully expect it will be south of here though. Its nailed on to miss me.

I'm just outside it