South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[magicpatch]

1 minute ago, Jamie M said:

Beautiful Sunday morning. Chilly breeze but the sun does brighten things up a lot!

Ha! I seem to be in that random layer of cloud over South London, typical! Although every forecast I've checked today suggests it will be cloudy by 1/2pm.

[Eagle Eye]

First signs of the Beast begin when we get an almost certainly deep low beginning to form, we begin to see that flow from Norway and areas of Laplanf and seeing as we don't actually see the balance most likely areas of the Arctic early signs of major beast development. 

Looking a few days later and we can see that there is quite a good chance of more development. Quite high chances of - 5 uppers along with relatively high chances of a deep low. Beast's take a while to develop and so we could even have a second warming but assuming that we don't and that around the 21st it begins it'll start with relatively low snow chances and not too much. Later on perhaps a week after slow development we should begin too see the Beast devolop and snow chances increasing along with overall snow. Uppers should begin to increase and for quite a few days just like 2018 we could see many inches of snow, sledging could be a given in near all of the UK with snow falling at most times of the day whenever we get precipitation. 

Of course for me I would like to see Snowfall On my birthday. It is just a case of wether or not it happens and if we do see a Dusting I Wouldn't Want Any other presents. 

[Delka]

Cracking day today, 5c and sunny

recorded 9mm precip overnight which i assume was all from the snow thaw

[Ackkers]

Beautiful January day here. Bright sunshine. T +6.8 DP 3.3

[80sWeather]

1 hour ago, magicpatch said:

Just about to pop out for my Sunday morning run, although it'll be a lot shorter than usual as I've not run for a month for various reasons.

Was a glorious sunny, blue sky affair about an hour ago, but it looks like the cloud is starting to rear its head (earlier than the MetOffice prediction!) to what seemingly could be a more cloudy afternoon. About 5c in the garden but its not the most accurate sensor on the best of days! 

Same here it’s a better morning for a run, not been myself for a month due to having corona virus over Christmas.

[yamkin]

Temp now 5C and cloudy/sunny

[PiscesStar]

2 hours ago, NewEra21 said:

It's looking unlikey we'll see any decent/prolonged cold spell down here in the SE & EA from now until the end of January. Although like others have pointed out, Thursday could hold some interest so I wouldn't rule out seeing a few flakes or surprises along the way. Just for genuine cold it looks like we'll have to look ahead to February now.

Although the days are lengthening in Feb, more often than not we see the best of winter in February down here. I'm holding out hope for a BFTE, whether we'll get one or not I don't know. I just don't want anymore of this stuff from the NW/N, as the cold usually just runs out of legs by the time it gets down here.

I'll be looking for a Scandi high in Feb, with cold advancing from the east!

Whereas I agree that North easterly or easterly winds bring us the best snow I'll take what's in offer over last year's rubbish 

[NewEra21]

Although these charts are far from perfect and way way way out in fantasy land and won't look anything like this next run. Further to the point I was talking about earlier. Cold building out east and working it's way through Europe, with some adjustments these kind of charts could easily see us put in the freezer from the east. All just for fun currently, but something I'll be looking for throughout February!

[stainesbloke]

37 minutes ago, 80sWeather said:

Same here it’s a better morning for a run, not been myself for a month due to having corona virus over Christmas.

Hope you weren’t too ill with it and are feeling better now? 

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

There can hardly have ever been a time (WWs 1 & 2 notwithstanding) when a long warm, sunny spring and summer ought be welcomed by almost everyone?

Something I wish for every year! Including plenty of thunderstorms. People do have short memories though, the moaning will start once it stops raining for more than a few hours and someone sees a yellow blade of grass

[lassie23]

Apparently it sleeted for five minutes here in the early hours the other day.

[alexisj9]

12 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Apparently it sleeted for five minutes here in the early hours the other day.

It managed snow here, long enough to land on cars, then it turned 

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

It managed snow here, long enough to land on cars, then it turned 

I hope you enjoyed winter 2020/2021 lol

[alexisj9]

37 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I hope you enjoyed winter 2020/2021 lol

Lol nope, I slept through it, was already all rain by 6am. But the snow was still on cars. So probably just missed it.

[lassie23]

29 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Lol nope, I slept through it, was already all rain by 6am. But the snow was still on cars. So probably just missed it.

was a waste of time, when is the next snow threat lol

Edited January 17, 2021 by lassie23

[lassie23]

looks like winter is over according to the MOD thread

[alexisj9]

50 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

looks like winter is over according to the MOD thread

Winter is always over in the mod thread. Mean while who else has a slight frost on cars already. 

[snowblind]

3 hours ago, lassie23 said:

was a waste of time, when is the next snow threat lol

Possibly Friday... According to GEM or maybe Sunday according to the GFS 

Earlier today the met office forecast suggested Thursday but that's now gone in the latest update.

So I would say towards the end of the week or the weekend possibly, maybe perhaps...

Edited January 17, 2021 by snowblind

[NewEra21]

Yes the GFS 12z op was a complete cold outlier, but with how fickle the ensembles have proven to be of late who believes what any of them say. The op once again showed that cold building out east and advancing through Europe. Of course it's probably completely wrong at this stage, but at some point in February I expect we'll get a few shots at this link kind of pattern.

Edited January 17, 2021 by NewEra21

[80sWeather]

6 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Hope you weren’t too ill with it and are feeling better now? 

Thank you for the kind words,  just had the standard version with high temperature and lethargic, was a bit worried as I’m an asthmatic but all better now and very thankful as many others have been very ill.

[80sWeather]

56 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Yes the GFS 12z op was a complete cold outlier, but with how fickle the ensembles have proven to be of late who believes what any of them say. The op once again showed that cold building out east and advancing through Europe. Of course it's probably completely wrong at this stage, but at some point in February I expect we'll get a few shots at this link kind of pattern.

Yes big low pressure on Thursday maybe will shake things up a bit, setting up more Southerly tracking lows that can deliver in our part of the world.

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, 80sWeather said:

Thank you for the kind words,  just had the standard version with high temperature and lethargic, was a bit worried as I’m an asthmatic but all better now and very thankful as many others have been very ill.

That’s great that you’re over it without any major issues, especially as you have asthma. It’s a weird virus and some very healthy people have become seriously ill, while others more vulnerable have only had mild symptoms. 

[southbank]

they have seen more snow then I have in Sutton 

[yamkin]

9 minutes ago, southbank said:

they have seen more snow then I have in Sutton 

Those areas have been getting snow for a few years 

[snowrye]

According to the mad thread, it's BOOM time, we're all getting buried, and we'll all need an ark