South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[bluearmy]

 

Dp’s getting there  (the two raf stations Mildenhall and lakenHeath are clearly incorrect 

Edited January 30, 2021 by bluearmy

[Polaris]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Any sign of settling over there yet? Keep us updated, might head to Dunstable Downs 

Last 5 minutes. On fence and cars 

[m1chaels]

24 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Any sign of settling over there yet? Keep us updated, might head to Dunstable Downs 

Annoyingly the Dunstable Downs webcam seems to be offline today.

[pinball wizard]

Rain, rain glorious rain. Oh and a teeny bit of sleet. Lovely.

[Lampostwatcher]

No warnings out now for our region 

Hopefully by the end of next week we might see a few

[Polaris]

Keeps fluctuating between heavy/light snow. 
 

As soon as the heavier stuff stops the slush on the cars melt.

Walking the dog my jacket and trousers were covered in snow, but the ground is to saturated and warm for any settling. 
 

Still, always nice to see snow falling, better than seeing rain. 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Polaris

[Lampostwatcher]

Might get an hour of light snow around 5pm when it clears 1cm max if lucky but I'd say now it's time to look to next weekend for a proper dumping 

[Stu_London]

06z GFS op shows a 5-6 day cold spell starting Friday next week, but takes a couple of days to fully entrench in our region - so perhaps 3-4 days for areas south of London. 

At the risk of being one of those that looks for the breakdown before the spell even starts, the rest of the run isn't great for cold, but well into FI, so wont pan out like that and still lots of outcomes possible at that range

[Tim Bland]

7 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Keeps fluctuating between heavy/light snow. 
 

As soon as the heavier stuff stops the slush on the cars melt.

Walking the dog my jacket and trousers were covered in snow, but the ground is to saturated and warm for any settling. 
 

Still, always nice to see snow falling, better than seeing rain. 

Last Sunday was different because everything was frozen solid with freezing fog the night before. To get settling in today’s conditions you either need another 1c drop in temp and DP (which is possible , at least DP wise) Or very high intensity to cool the ground 

[Lampostwatcher]

Just now, Stu_London said:

06z GFS op shows a 5-6 day cold spell starting Friday next week, but takes a couple of days to fully entrench in our region - so perhaps 3-4 days for areas south of London. 

At the risk of being one of those that looks for the breakdown before the spell even starts, the rest of the run isn't great for cold, but well into FI, so wont pan out like that and still lots of outcomes possible at that range

Yes that's the way I see it atm

And can't complain tbh

If we get one good dumping from the 6th to the 11th I'd bank that now 

[Lampostwatcher]

Loads to be happy and positive about 

[Polaris]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Last Sunday was different because everything was frozen solid with freezing fog the night before. To get settling in today’s conditions you either need another 1c drop in temp and DP (which is possible , at least DP wise) Or very high intensity to cool the ground 

Yes last Sunday reminded me of weather coming in from the east rather than the west. 
 

Frozen solid ground, minus temps then snowfall. Instant settling of every flake. 

[Blazerblue]

Well we got nothing here. halesworth suffolk to be precise and the band of rain/sleet/snow has turned back south westwards, cant say im disappointed, just want dry weather til spring now.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Blazerblue
spelling

[E17boy]

1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Might get an hour of light snow around 5pm when it clears 1cm max if lucky but I'd say now it's time to look to next weekend for a proper dumping 

Hello all rain here in Walthamstow what a grim day. What is the latest on next weekend is it still looking good for us? .

I have not got my hopes up, many of times we have seen setups like this that are eye candy, but nearer time it seems as if we are in the Bermuda Triangle and all the good charts seem to mysteriously disappear.

Anyway I do hope we are in for a chance, the beast is best for us.

regards

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, E17boy said:

Hello all rain here in Walthamstow what a grim day. What is the latest on next weekend is it still looking good for us? .

I have not got my hopes up, many of times we have seen setups like this that are eye candy, but nearer time it seems as if we are in the Bermuda Triangle and all the good charts seem to mysteriously disappear.

Anyway I do hope we are in for a chance, the beast is best for us.

regards

the models have backed off a long epic spell a bit.

Still showing a good 5 day cold spell for most of the UK - but even that is FI, which is about 72-96hours right now. So still lots to be resolved before we can bank anything, let alone start looking for the breakdown.

[Froze were the Days]

Another foul day here on the Essex Riviera...temp 3.5c and flooding becoming a real issue, flooded fields, overflowing drains, flooded roads and my back lawn like a bog. This month has just been abhorrent!

7th cold rainy day of this winter, never experienced one like this!

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

Well we got nothing here. halesworth suffolk to be precise and the band of rain/sleet/snow has turned back south westwards, cant say im disappointed, just want dry weather til spring now.

Hopefully, with that dome of hot air, over Libya, showing signs of imminent expansion, Spring mightn't be too far away? Here's hoping!

[E17boy]

2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

the models have backed off a long epic spell a bit.

Still showing a good 5 day cold spell for most of the UK - but even that is FI, which is about 72-96hours right now. So still lots to be resolved before we can bank anything, let alone start looking for the breakdown.

Oh dear not being downbeat but reminds me of some past setups. The models back down slightly then a few days later a 5 day cold spell is then 1 or 2 days, till it's all watered down then it's the next chase. The concern now will be TIME, we are coming into February and winter is going past something has to happen in the next few weeks before we are looking down to spring on the horizon. 

Stay safe 

regards

[Polaris]

Really coming down now, get that DP down by another degree and this would settle for sure. 

[pinball wizard]

5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Another foul day here on the Essex Riviera...temp 3.5c and flooding becoming a real issue, flooded fields, overflowing drains, flooded roads and my back lawn like a bog. This month has just been abhorrent!

7th cold rainy day of this winter, never experienced one like this!

I was thinking the same thing, more days of sleet than I can ever remember in one winter. Most definitely not classic queen..

[TonyK St Albans]

1 hour ago, TonyK St Albans said:

Turning to light snow now, 

ince rain turned to light snow at 9.25am in St Albans it's mostly been white rain (aka sleet ). 

[Dami]

all but stopped here, apart from the odd spot of rain.

[Froze were the Days]

Nothing showing in the midlands other than the odd very slight slushting...so don't know why members are expecting anything here?

[Eagle Eye]

Good Morning,

Hope everybody is okay,

Of course over time Eddy Mixing for potential vorticity changes, increaing at the sae rate with the chance of tht prediction being correct getting smaller over time, the icrasing distribution doesn not mean that that prediction is not the highest chnce though.Despite being fir example a 10% chance of happening it means that  10% is the highest chance of what could happen with a 90% chance of something else happening but that something else is many specific versions of the future.Eddy mixing is for the potential vorticity of the Tropopause however I believe that the idea can be transfered into modelling and reading the models.

If we assume that the modeld mixing rate is within the boundaries of the Eddy Mixing rate, as it is not true randoness it can be governed by numbers most likely  these models will not be random but will be governed by chance and that chance can change from time to time but on average it will look somethng like this

You caan see that the space above it indicating something else happen expands due to a lowering of the predictability of future events with less perdictability we can see tht we should look more at the low to high ratio and not go pat Day 5 for a relative chance of that coming off.

This is a relatively high chance of coming off with the general idea having a 65% or so chanceof coming off and so the Beast could evolve from this but at the moment it is the waiting game.

Xander

Edited January 30, 2021 by Hurricane Squad

[Daniel*]

Coming down good now in Chilterns.