South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Nick L]

Sunday's snow event is definitely not happening as I've spent today's shift warning clients of the potential for some widespread accumulations. Sorry all.

[MAF]

""please press the ignore button if you think I’m polluting your Snow dreams ""

done  

Edited January 21, 2021 by MAF

[MAF]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Sunday's snow event is definitely not happening as I've spent today's shift warning clients of the potential for some widespread accumulations. Sorry all.

[Polaris]

3 minutes ago, MAF said:

""please press the ignore button if you think I’m polluting your Snow dreams ""

done  

[Polaris]

9 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Sunday's snow event is definitely not happening as I've spent today's shift warning clients of the potential for some widespread accumulations. Sorry all.

Need to get that over to the Meto Nick sharpish 

Once those Accumulations are headed by the Meto I shall bow down to you all

Edited January 21, 2021 by Polaris

[Mark wheeler]

8 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Sunday's snow event is definitely not happening as I've spent today's shift warning clients of the potential for some widespread accumulations. Sorry all.

Well game over now

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, Polaris said:

Need to get that over to the Meto Nick sharpish 

And help out a competitor? I think not

[Sky High]

11 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Sunday's snow event is definitely not happening as I've spent today's shift warning clients of the potential for some widespread accumulations. Sorry all.

 

  Or at least destroyer of snow worlds.  

[Captain Shortwave]

12 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Come again? 
 

Pollute the the thread with truth? 
I seem to remember you were in competition with me 4 weeks back that snow would fall that week. It didn’t. 
 

please press the ignore button if you think I’m polluting your Snow dreams 

Polluting snow dreams? All I have now is an image of Freddie Kruger running around with a flamethrower melting peoples snowmen......

 

Oh yeah, weather.... erm... it was cloud here for most of the day thanks to that front across the far south of the UK. It certainly felt chilly but not as cold as the coming weekend. 2-4C looks to be the range with widespread frosts at night. Snow? Umm.... anyone got a shortwave* magnet?

*Secondary low

Edited January 21, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Nick F]

One would hope the Met Office aren't too reliant on their own models ... they need to warn for the potential of a dusting or 10 kentimetres 

[zubzero]

Thanks for the update Nick. I,m in pessimistic mode ATM as so far this Winter any chance of a snow event has been a let down. So I fear the system will be less developed and whizz along the channel and into northern France. Or develop to much and introduce the dreaded mild sector and move further north. Option 1 most likely. Or could get lucky for once and get the middle ground.

[stainesbloke]

Doesn’t seem to be much sign of any high pressure setting up shop nearby, anytime soon. That’s what we need, to stop further flooding rain (which we don’t need). 

[Nick F]

Wow, we've become so resigned to it never snowing in our area when the models hint it might, understandable given the let downs so far this winter when the models showed promise.

My annoyance with this winter so far, despite me have the fortune of a few brief early morning coverings given my elevation, is the snow hasn't stuck around. 

[Nick L]

Has anyone else had enough of this winter? I don't think I've ever longed for spring so badly.

[Nick L]

Come on guys, just leave it please.

[snowspotter]

Can you both settle this over a snowball fight on Sunday and post the video

[Stu_London]

5 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Has anyone else had enough of this winter? I don't think I've ever longed for spring so badly.

Yes, for lots of reasons, not all related to the weather. Model watching has been fun at times, even if reading the MOD discussion rarely is. 

Looks like Sunday will become a nowcast event, or a nowcast non-event. All options on the table, snow, dry, too marginal in the south of the region (if you believe ICON)

[stainesbloke]

8 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Has anyone else had enough of this winter? I don't think I've ever longed for spring so badly.

Yes, been pretty depressing but still nearly half of it go, Spring still a long way off

[Nick F]

BBC forecasting 12C back end of next week, so fingers crossed snow falls for most on Sunday before its the inevitable return to wind and rain from Tuesday.

[alexisj9]

42 minutes ago, zubzero said:

I. Wish it was that's from the start of February 1991 look what it lead to

 

To be honest it's what I'm expecting, but we'll see, I mean the high going up over us, then toppling over towards scandi. But we'll see, what happens. 

[Stu_London]

Interesting deep FI in the 18z pub run

Sort of pattern we need to be looking out for 

[Captain Shortwave]

Mixed feelings regarding the coming few weeks.

On one hand there is a chance that conditions could quickly flip to something colder. Considering the position of heights after this spell of colder weather, it seems like the amplification of heights over Iberia towards a UK-based and eventually Scandinavian high would be the logical route forward. Enough going on in the background to present this as a possibility.

On the other hand, it may never happen and we will initially be looking at a train of mild and moist air from the south west that could clash with colder air to the north hindering the quick progression north eastwards of any fronts. So rain appears to be a continuing concern, something that is really not needed at the moment.

[Kentspur]

35 minutes ago, Nick F said:

One would hope the Met Office aren't too reliant on their own models ... they need to warn for the potential of a dusting or 10 kentimetres 

Talking of Kentimetres I miss using that term since the good old days of 09-13'

 

Facebook memories reminded me 8 years ago yesterday I remember this well the last decent January snowfall and it was a surprise event it actually came from the SE via France/Belgium dumped around 5inches of snow more in some places 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Kentspur

[Nick F]

12 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Interesting deep FI in the 18z pub run

Sort of pattern we need to be looking out for 

Well, didn't GFS spot the 2018 BFTE out in FI? You never know.

I do think something interesting is afoot as we enter early Feb. You tend to get repeating patterns in some winters, i.e. cold spell, then one or two weeks mild then cold then mild then cold again. December 2020 was cold start mild middle cold end, January mostly on the cold side, but some brief milder spells before colder this weekend then turning milder next week ... so expect it will turn cold again next few weeks, as the upper flow likely amplifies again, but this time, given the Atlantic troughing, a Scandi high seems more likely. Given we have deep cold over NE Europe/NW Russia now, any easterly will be colder than the last insipid one.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Nick F

[Kentspur]

GFS Parallel model shows heavy snow Saturday night in the SE especially in Kent, instead of Sunday, while GFS op latest 18z run shows mostly the Thames south and westwards including SW England and Wales and Central Southern England Sunday afternoon as previously mentioned