South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[NewEra21]

I know this is way way way out in lala land and won't look anything like this next run. But the GFS is finally showing signs of what those GFS P charts I've been posting for the beginning of February have been showing. This chart is in no way as spectacular as what the GFS P has been showing of late, but heights beginning to build towards Scandi and those low heights in Europe. It's a start!

Edited January 21, 2021 by NewEra21

[SLEETY]

Watch the bbc forecasts for snow disappear like the dot by  Saturday.You could put money on it.

[Paul Sherman]

Well Daniel ECM is 0 from 6 so far this winter for the SE so it cant get any worse I will give you that.

[Polaris]

19 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The BBC is only reflecting the latest from ECM model it’s not out of date data. Depends what models you look at. What I will say ECM is being more consistent than most, consistently wrong we’ll see, but it’s important model to have on your side. 

It’s extremely hard to lay any faith in EC snowfall predictions. 
The model has been consistently wrong this winter. I should have had up to 30cm by now (Barely a dusting in reality) 

With Meto backing down with any snowfall Sunday. 
I know which one I’m in favour for. 

[Lampostwatcher]

Well at least there is chance Sunday night 

Front coming in from the west according to the BBC 

Placement and amounts is what's being mentioned 

[Polaris]

2 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Well at least there is chance Sunday night 

Front coming in from the west according to the BBC 

Placement and amounts is what's being mentioned 

Without the Meto onboard it’s a sorry forecast. 
 

Expect BBC to be in-line  with the Met Office this time tomorrow.

History tells us that. 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Polaris

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, Polaris said:

It’s extremely hard to lay any faith in EC snowfall predictions. 
The model has been consistently wrong this winter. I should have had up to 30cm by now (Barely a dusting in reality) 

With Meto backing down with any snowfall Sunday. 
I know which one I’m in favour for. 

Conditions on Sunday are supportive for snowfall though. It’s either dry or snow.

[Daniel*]

@Paul Sherman we all know ECM has a problem of overdoing snow assuming it all falls as snow and settles, you shouldn’t single out this model only though, these models are often useless remember when they all backtracked 24 hours before? The ECM is good at figuring out where fronts are going the 00z, 06z and 12z all are very consistent to one another. Conditions on Sunday are good so rain isn’t really the concern it’s the case of getting the PPN southernmost counties seems most likely.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Daniel*

[Kent Clipper]

3 hours ago, Coopsy said:

I had a slightly awkward meeting with a manager at work probably about about 16/17 years ago. An expensive (0898?) phone number kept coming up on my work phone and they thought I was calling porn lines. Turns out it was the weather line phone number. I think they were so relieved they weren’t working with a sexual deviant that they just let it go

I still remember the no. 0898 500 402 !!! ( how sad am i lol) I became quite addicted to calling it, especially in the winter of 95/96 when there were countless snow opportunities in the pipeline 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Kent Clipper

[Polaris]

19 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Conditions on Sunday are supportive for snowfall though. It’s either dry or snow.

It will be dry no doubt. 
There is only ever ppn around when it falls as water.

Maybe southern most counties may see some wet snow if they’re lucky. 
 

Id love the EC to be on track but without Met Office onboard it’s a very slim chance. 

[Damp and dreary]

Well. Whatever all you grump-bag, downer people think (you know who I'm talking about) I still get excited when there is an opportunity for snow. Living right on the coast for my almost 50 years of life im used to being let down. But the snow lover and child in me still gets excited in the slight possibility of seeing at least a few flakes of snow. I am the guy that woke up last weekend at 3.30 a.m to see if i would get a glimpse of snow, but as usual i was disappointed. Many did get something though. Does it make me a grumpy, meh, never happens here, rubbish models kinda person though? Nope. 
Try to enjoy the ups and downs of the models and not be soo serious. Life is proper rubbish at the moment, lets not exacerbate it with anger that its not the winter wonderland that most of us would want every year. Love you!  x 

[Coopsy]

20 minutes ago, Kent Clipper said:

I still remember the no. 0898 500 402 !!! ( how sad am i lol) I became quite addicted to calling it, especially in the winter of 95/96 when there were countless snow opportunities in the pipeline 

That’s an impressive memory! I remember ringing it incessantly during the thunder snow episode (I think it was jan 2003?) 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Evening all,

MeteoGroup, via Ben Rich, still expecting a little bit of Snow, courtesy of an Occluded Front on Sunday.

Heights that had risen over Greenland, soon leak away West, towards Canada and this allows the Atlantic in, through the "back door".

This signals a return to unsettled and milder Weather, in the extended period.

Weather for the week ahead - BBC Weather

Regards,

Tom.  

[MAF]

yes @TomSE12, i totally agree that 'milder' weather is expected, but i will say that 'milder' means 'average' for this time of year. we have had a cool period lately and when it goes above below average some people call it mild. it's all in the interpretation i suppose. to me its a good winter so far here in SE, have had below average temps. frost, ice and fog. never expect snow so close to the thames or the SE of London as its just not the area to get it, but one thing for sure; i don't do expect anything as we had a good few years back. saying that; my 50+ years of age probably makes me think winters of past were always 'wintry'

[Polaris]

1 hour ago, jasonuk said:

Well. Whatever all you grump-bag, downer people think (you know who I'm talking about) I still get excited when there is an opportunity for snow. Living right on the coast for my almost 50 years of life im used to being let down. But the snow lover and child in me still gets excited in the slight possibility of seeing at least a few flakes of snow. I am the guy that woke up last weekend at 3.30 a.m to see if i would get a glimpse of snow, but as usual i was disappointed. Many did get something though. Does it make me a grumpy, meh, never happens here, rubbish models kinda person though? Nope. 
Try to enjoy the ups and downs of the models and not be soo serious. Life is proper rubbish at the moment, lets not exacerbate it with anger that its not the winter wonderland that most of us would want every year. Love you!  x 

Your post makes no sense. You’re  are basically calling folk who see models/forecast for what they are, as grump bag, downer people. 
 

There’s no dressing up Models especially the ECM unreliable snow depth forecasts. Fair play to you for getting excited at a single snowflake but I’m afraid that doesn’t cut it for those of us that seek snowfall. Just because we are not happy with your single snowflake doesn’t make us grumpy it makes us realists. 
 

Most on the regional thread are not looking for the ups and downs of models (that’s the MOD thread) most of us are barely looking for the reliable and mostly discussing snow chances +24 -+72 

The Metoffice has dropped snow signal for Sunday, it seems only the unreliable ECM is still running with it, expect that to change come tomorrow (you only have to look at the past 6 failed snow spells forecast for our region this winter) 

Please stop belittling folk with your untrue “inspirational” post

Edited January 21, 2021 by Polaris

[MAF]

35 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Your post makes no sense. Your are basically calling folk who see models/forecast for what they are, as grump bag, downer people. 
 

There’s no dressing up Models especially the ECM unreliable snow depth forecasts. Fair play to you for getting excited at a single snowflake but I’m afraid that doesn’t cut it for those of us that seek snowfall. Just because we are not happy with your single snowflake doesn’t make us grumpy it makes us realists. 
 

Most on the regional thread are not looking for the ups and downs of models (that’s the MOD thread) most of us are barely looking for the reliable and mostly discussing snow chances +24 -+72 

The Metoffice has dropped snow signal for Sunday, it seems only the unreliable ECM is still running with it, expect that to change come tomorrow (you only have to look at the past 6 failed snow spells forecast for our region this winter) 

Please stop belittling folk with your untrue “inspirational” post

sorry, i totally disagree with your response, and i am in no way been rude about that.  we are all allowed an opinion, and a 'realist' should say things how he/she see it.

but whether you agree or disagree doesn't make a difference to a person' post. there is no reason why you should undervalue a person with ""Please stop belittling folk with your untrue “inspirational” post""

because the poster may not feel what they are posting  is ""belittling".  each to their own here. surely? 

i, along with a lot of people can take a post from someone as they take it, like it or ignore it. but i don't accept someone trying to tell me its something i cannot make my own mind up on

Edited January 21, 2021 by MAF

[Daniel*]

20 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Your post makes no sense. You’re  are basically calling folk who see models/forecast for what they are, as grump bag, downer people. 
 

There’s no dressing up Models especially the ECM unreliable snow depth forecasts. Fair play to you for getting excited at a single snowflake but I’m afraid that doesn’t cut it for those of us that seek snowfall. Just because we are not happy with your single snowflake doesn’t make us grumpy it makes us realists. 
 

Most on the regional thread are not looking for the ups and downs of models (that’s the MOD thread) most of us are barely looking for the reliable and mostly discussing snow chances +24 -+72 

The Metoffice has dropped snow signal for Sunday, it seems only the unreliable ECM is still running with it, expect that to change come tomorrow (you only have to look at the past 6 failed snow spells forecast for our region this winter) 

Please stop belittling folk with your untrue “inspirational” post

To be fair you are like a robot, you always say the same things, there’s nothing ever new that comes from you. You always say it will not snow, even when it has done in region and you said it would only rain, but you conveniently have ignored that because your beloved MetO said so. You never bother to share models ect, have you ever provided a useful contribution to SE thread? All you do is pollute this thread with your depressive talk. 

[zubzero]

Bit harsh Polaris, but I can see both sides. Let's meet in the middle 

 

 

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, zubzero said:

Bit harsh Polaris, but I can see both sides. Let's meet in the middle 

 

 

Ouch, but probably rather likely.

[Nick F]

Game over for Sunday? Not quite...

Updated fax chart doesn't look too promising.

18z GFS just about scrapes a few snow showers into our region

ICON further north with a band of snow moving W to E.

So, wouldn't give up entirely. The low has yet to form, the low looks to develop W of Ireland on Saturday in response to upper disturbance dropping southeast in the circulation of the upper trough over NW Europe and NE Atlantic, before organising as it moves over southern Ireland and encounters the jet stream just to the south - before moving east across S England on Sunday. The models will never accurately determine how organised the system will be or its exact track this far out.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Nick F

[zubzero]

5 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Ouch, but probably rather likely.

I. Wish it was that's from the start of February 1991 look what it lead to

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by zubzero

[Polaris]

7 minutes ago, zubzero said:

Bit harsh Polaris, but I can see both sides. Let's meet in the middle 

 

 

Thanks @zubzero

Seems I’m not popular on here/ robotic because I speak the truth 

[Mac_SE]

TBF I see Polaris' point, getting hyped up over a marginal flake-chase isn't for me either, but for those who it is and who want to post about the chances,  go and enjoy. If I don't agree, I do a Dionne and just scroll on by.

[MAF]

1 minute ago, Polaris said:

Thanks @zubzero

Seems I’m not popular on here/ robotic because I speak the truth 

truth is a matter of choice. you are as equal as everyone else here. it's the difference between truth and opinion that makes a difference

[Polaris]

10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

To be fair you are like a robot, you always say the same things, there’s nothing ever new that comes from you. You always say it will not snow, even when it has done in region and you said it would only rain, but you conveniently have ignored that because your beloved MetO said so. You never bother to share models ect, have you ever provided a useful contribution to SE thread? All you do is pollute this thread with your depressive talk. 

Come again? 
 

Pollute the the thread with truth? 
I seem to remember you were in competition with me 4 weeks back that snow would fall that week. It didn’t. 
 

please press the ignore button if you think I’m polluting your Snow dreams