South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[yamkin]

Just for fun  Latest GFS Model 12Z is forecasting 18 hours non stop snow on 3rd - 4th Feb. This will definitely be subject to change 

   

[NewEra21]

ECM still going for it on Sunday

[Polaris]

48 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Not just about the impacts of the wind.. 

 

Have a look at the flooding and other risks including snow this storm is bringing.. 

Quite right, the flooding is more of note then any wind gust. 
 

Don’t think I’ve seen for many years since 2014 as flooded and bogged as is now round here. A 60mph wind gust got nothing on what’s happening with the deluge of rainfall this winter. 
 

Hoping for a long, dry, hot summer to dry the good old British countryside 

Edited January 20, 2021 by Polaris

[Polaris]

24 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

ECM still going for it on Sunday

The Same model that had me +24hrs for inches of snow 6 times over so far this winter. 

My used toilet paper probably has a more accurate map than the ECM snowfall charts. 

[Hurricane Debby]

Its starting to get quite nasty out there now...

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Polaris said:

The Same model that had me +24hrs for inches of snow 6 times over so far this winter. 

My used toilet paper probably has a more accurate map than the ECM snowfall charts. 

Shirley, that'd be 'brownout' conditions, P?

[Polaris]

Just now, Hurricane Debby said:

Its starting to get quite nasty out there now...

It’s a bit of wind, don’t get what all the fuss is about. 
 

Bring back the good old 90s before media hype and naming of a low pressure system into some terrifying storm name. 

[Polaris]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Shirley, that'd be 'brownout' conditions, P?

Probably brownout conditions more likely than whiteout 

[Mark wheeler]

21 minutes ago, Polaris said:

The Same model that had me +24hrs for inches of snow 6 times over so far this winter. 

My used toilet paper probably has a more accurate map than the ECM snowfall charts. 

Can you post the charts

[Tom Quintavalle]

Below, is a Video clip of MeteoGroup's extended Forecast, courtesy of Chris Fawkes.

Weather for the week ahead - BBC Weather

Still a lot of uncertainty then, about the track of these disturbances running to the South of the U.K. 

The 12z ECM looks to have a more favourable track than UKMO, for more of our Region to see a little falling Snow.

ECM makes less of the feature, and therefore is further South.

           12z ECM (t72) Sat. 23rd.                              12z UKMO (t72) Sat. 23rd.

             

The Upper Air Temperatures are more or less bang on the limit at around -5c, for Snow.

   12z ECM 850hPa (t72) Sat. 23rd.  

Regards,

Tom. 

[Kentspur]

16 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Below, is a Video clip of MeteoGroup's extended Forecast, courtesy of Chris Fawkes.

Weather for the week ahead - BBC Weather

Still a lot of uncertainty then, about the track of these disturbances running to the South of the U.K. 

The 12z ECM looks to have a more favourable track than UKMO, for more of our Region to see a little falling Snow.

ECM makes less of the feature, and therefore is further South.

           12z ECM (t72) Sat. 23rd.                              12z UKMO (t72) Sat. 23rd.

             

The Upper Air Temperatures are more or less bang on the limit at around -5c, for Snow.

   12z ECM 850hPa (t72) Sat. 23rd.  

Regards,

Tom. 

Hopefully the models will come to a halfway house consensus then? Bang over the Thames Estuary would be nice as we've only had rain and sleet all winter so far. The ensembles seem to suggest slightly colder than minus 5c uppers unless GFS is wrong? Minus 6.6c the mean here in Gravesend 

[Hammer]

43 minutes ago, Polaris said:

It’s a bit of wind, don’t get what all the fuss is about. 
 

Bring back the good old 90s before media hype and naming of a low pressure system into some terrifying storm name. 

Its a weather discussion thread. Seems perfectly reasonable for the poster to comment that conditions near them a bit nasty (squally) to me. 

[Hurricane Debby]

4 minutes ago, Polaris said:

It’s a bit of wind, don’t get what all the fuss is about. 
 

Bring back the good old 90s before media hype and naming of a low pressure system into some terrifying storm name. 

 

7 minutes ago, Hammer said:

Its a weather discussion thread. Seems perfectly reasonable for the poster to comment that conditions near them a bit nasty (squally) to me. 

Thanks Hammer ! When I have to retrieve my wheelie bins from the street more than once, that's my sign that things are getting nasty 

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Polaris said:

Quite right, the flooding is more of note then any wind gust. 
 

Don’t think I’ve seen for many years since 2014 as flooded and bogged as is now round here. A 60mph wind gust got nothing on what’s happening with the deluge of rainfall this winter. 
 

Hoping for a long, dry, hot summer to dry the good old British countryside 

I'm not so sure about that, the wind here is really going for it now, and it's not even 9pm yet. Gonna be a rough night on the south coast.

Edited January 20, 2021 by alexisj9

[Convergence]

Very gusty here, xcweather's showing an inland gust of 51mph at Little Rissington atm. That's one of the strongest low level inland gusts I've seen all winter. Certainly noisiest storm of the winter here.

 

[snowrye]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Shirley, that'd be 'brownout' conditions, P?

Your right, and don't call me shirley

[Dami]

quite surprised the wind warnings weren't sooner. It was very blowly in our en suite.

[Damp and dreary]

5 minutes ago, Dami said:

quite surprised the wind warnings weren't sooner. It was very blowly in our en suite.

Oooh get you with your En suite. Well i can tell its getting blowy as its whipping through our poor quality windows into the bedroom

[Convergence]

Even my chickens might manage to take off in this!

 

[Eagle Eye]

I'll Be Back To My Old self soon. Most likely buying a book recommended to me many times about atmospherics. 

[North Downs Snowboarder]

I see our cousins in the North Western thread are getting excited about a very quick switch from rain to heavy settling snow in the Liverpool and Manchester areas in the last hour - be interesting to see just how far South and East this goes . . .

Edited January 20, 2021 by North Downs Snowboarder

[tinybill]

met office   ,ex 70 mph  winds  after 9 olcock  with  heavy  rain

 

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, tinybill said:

met office   ,ex 70 mph  winds  after 9 olcock  with  heavy  rain

 

If anything the wind has calmed a bit since my last post, hopefully that doesn't mean the calm before it really goes for it. Quite unsettling actually, knowing the low is rapidly developing over us. Norway is gonna take the brunt of this wind wise.

[Sky High]

Seems an exceptionally blowy winter so far to me.  Expect it in autumn or spring but not so much this time of year. Or my memory is not what it was. 

[Neilsouth]

Look how far south the cold and snow has come, wasn't meant to be this far south!! Bodes well for southern areas this weekend?