South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[winterfreak]

Popped back for a catch up. How’s the cold and snow looking? Ten days away???

Edited January 20, 2021 by winterfreak

[NewEra21]

GFS P is being fairly consistent at the moment, could be consistently wrong. But let's hope it's the first to spot the trend as we start February!

 

Edited January 20, 2021 by NewEra21

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Popped back for a catch up. How’s the cold and snow looking? Ten days away???

Chance of some snow this weekend. Fingers crossed, Sunday seems to have a greater risk beeb also mentioned.

[Sparky68]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Chance of some snow this weekend. Fingers crossed, Sunday seems to have a greater risk beeb also mentioned.

and a chance of me winning the lottery 

[TommyB]

Afternoon all,

9.3c in St Leonards, also wet and wild

Have a good day

[Paul Sherman]

Took em a while to play Catch Up but finally 2 Wind Warnings out from the Meto Now 

Cone goes perfectly through the gap though

[Tom Quintavalle]

47 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Fax charts are decent for Saturday and Sunday..... best chance of snow so far? 

As you say Daniel, interesting for the Weekend: 

 

Regards,

Tom. 

 

Edited January 20, 2021 by TomSE12

[alexisj9]

19 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Took em a while to play Catch Up but finally 2 Wind Warnings out from the Meto Now 

Cone goes perfectly through the gap though

Seems rather shallow to me, with such a difference between the temps on that cold front, perhaps a more general warning should be given.

Mind you it is night time so should be fine. 

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

As you say Daniel, interesting for the Weekend: 

 

Regards,

Tom. 

 

I don’t think it updated for me with Saturday yours the newest has it further south less likely to give anything to SE.

[Eagle Eye]

I'd like to give extra special thanks to @TomSE12for his regular updtes about the models and the chaces of what's happening now vs such Years as the 80s.

My Birthday on the 24th January could have a high chance of seeing snow falling even if it is a few flakes.

On the weekend we get the best chance with a change in the uppers.

I reckon assuming that we get those types of upers along with that dam You Never Know How much snow.I expect that if Snow Sets It Won't be uch.

I Might Write A Better Post When I Properly wake up.

Xander

[alexisj9]

Think our low is on radar now, as a comma approaching Cornwall. Might be wrong.

[Blazerblue]

Rain warning gone, wind warning given. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

3 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

Rain warning gone, wind warning given. 

Yes very odd warnings too.. 

 

Don't know about anyone else but it really is blowing here now can hear it coming down the chimney and around the house.. 

Expect it to get even worse later.. 

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

26 minutes ago, Hurricane Squad said:

I'd like to give extra special thanks to @TomSE12for his regular updtes about the models and the chaces of what's happening now vs such Years as the 80s.

My Birthday on the 24th January could have a high chance of seeing snow falling even if it is a few flakes.

On the weekend we get the best chance with a change in the uppers.

I reckon assuming that we get those types of upers along with that dam You Never Know How much snow.I expect that if Snow Sets It Won't be uch.

I Might Write A Better Post When I Properly wake up.

Xander

Hi H.S.,

Thanks for those kind words.

Having watched the lunchtime Forecast, Chris Fawkes suggested the disturbances that may cause the Snowfall,could stay over France.

They are not very sure of the track of these Troughs/etc, at the moment but certainly something to keep an eye on. 

Speaking of DAM Lines, Members may want to read this article about the importance of Dam thicknesses, when Forecasting Snow.

Snow forecast 2017: what is snow and how do weather forecasters know it's coming? | WIRED UK

Regards,

Tom.  

Edited January 20, 2021 by TomSE12

[Paul Sherman]

Well if the SE Can dodge a Channel Runner it sure will put 110% into it.

ECM & GFS have it impacting us, UKMO Says it stays too far south looking at the Fax Chart.

I know who my money would be on..........Sorry Xander, Hurricane Squad, Sheldon

Hope your Birthday is White but 80% against says nope at this stage

[alexisj9]

Yep it's definitely there now, above the low in Biscay, another swirl has developed, it's now over Cornwall, that will most likely be Christoph.

[lottiekent]

It’s quiet in here! Currently 8.9c with 3.3mm of rain, breezy but nothing much yet but seems to be picking up again. Expecting to be woken by the squall line in the early hours though.

[Hurricane Debby]

5 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

It’s quiet in here! Currently 8.9c with 3.3mm of rain, breezy but nothing much yet but seems to be picking up again. Expecting to be woken by the squall line in the early hours though.

It's quiet everywhere ! I think it's because there's so much going on all over the place, everyone is here there and every where on different threads and websites. Like me !

[yamkin]

Latest ICON Model 12Z is forecasting snow in the SE for a few hours on Sunday 24th Jan - As always, subject to change 

  

[alexisj9]

Just putting this in here in case any HGV drivers read this thread.

 

 

[SHM040519]

23 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Latest ICON Model 12Z is forecasting snow in the SE for a few hours on Sunday 24th Jan - As always, subject to change 

  

Still way to early for me to be confident. Expect it to change to rain or not happen at all! 

[Tom Quintavalle]

3 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Well if the SE Can dodge a Channel Runner it sure will put 110% into it.

ECM & GFS have it impacting us, UKMO Says it stays too far south looking at the Fax Chart.

I know who my money would be on..........Sorry Xander, Hurricane Squad, Sheldon

Hope your Birthday is White but 80% against says nope at this stage

You were saying Paul?

Crazy difference between the Met Office and the MeteoGroup BBC Forecast, I posted earlier.

Another reminder, if it were needed, that the two organisations, went their separate ways, a few Years ago.

Meto make much more of that disturbance and if anything is now too far North, and all this at just t72!!

I will post the BBC Video clip of MeteoGroups extended Forecast, a little later.

Hopefully, there will be a little more agreement, regarding the situation at the Weekend.

Regards,

Tom. 

[Polaris]

3 hours ago, Surrey said:

Yes very odd warnings too.. 

 

Don't know about anyone else but it really is blowing here now can hear it coming down the chimney and around the house.. 

Expect it to get even worse later.. 

 

I remember back in the 90s pre ‘Storm names’ and windy weather that the breeze blowing outside would not even batter an eyelid. 
 

It’s windy.... Groundbreaking 

Early 90s I would walk home from school in wind speeds double than what’s forecast. The storm names Currently is utter cringe!! 

Edited January 20, 2021 by Polaris

[Eagle Eye]

3 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Well if the SE Can dodge a Channel Runner it sure will put 110% into it.

ECM & GFS have it impacting us, UKMO Says it stays too far south looking at the Fax Chart.

I know who my money would be on..........Sorry Xander, Hurricane Squad, Sheldon

Hope your Birthday is White but 80% against says nope at this stage

Lol, I have a few names don't I,20% chance has happened before for me. 

Sorry this took a while while to write. 

Whilst I don't expect much to happen so far these past Year and a bit have seemed to be a bit random and also the fact that a 20% chance this far out is the same as a 20% of it not happening and it never happens. Chance is just an add up of all the factors. 

Anyway although I don't think it'll happen I have heard it noted that they don't know what is going to happen with the trough so it is hard to predict. 

My last few words in this post. 

Expect the unexpected. 

Xander

[NO LONGER POSTING]

24 minutes ago, Polaris said:

I remember back in the 90s pre ‘Storm names’ and windy weather that the breeze blowing outside would not even batter an eyelid. 
 

It’s windy.... Groundbreaking 

Early 90s I would walk home from school in wind speeds double than what’s forecast. The storm names Currently is utter cringe!! 

Not just about the impacts of the wind.. 

 

Have a look at the flooding and other risks including snow this storm is bringing..