South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[James1979]

Said it a few times over the years now but there are far too many warnings over not a lot and backside covering, my family and friends who aren't a weather geek like me just ignore them now which is dangerous because when there may be some genuinely tricky weather they will ignore it.

Edited January 19, 2021 by James1979

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, MAF said:

the point is, it should be for a reason otherwise we end up crying wolf all the time. Bit like saying what the weather will be in 10 days time  

It is for a reason. But only people that live near rivers may see an impact. 

[NewEra21]

There's still the potential for something wintry over the coming weekend, I know these charts are unreliable. But at least they're still showing the potential.

Saturday

 

Sunday

 

Snow depth Mon 12pm

Edited January 19, 2021 by NewEra21

[MAF]

8 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

It is for a reason. But only people that live near rivers may see an impact. 

OK, but my point is why give a warning for, say, London, when there appears to be no reason for it. Fair enough, some parts of Outer London where there are flood potential episodes need warning. But the Environment Agency give that advice already. I just cannot reason why we have a weather warning for London yet the forecast shows no substance for the warning. 

[Wimbledon88]

12 minutes ago, James1979 said:

Said it a few times over the years now but there are far too many warnings over not a lot and backside covering, my family and friends who aren't a wether geek like me just ignore them now which is dangerous because when there may be some genuinely tricky weather they will ignore it.

Couldn't agree more. The Met along with the BBC/Meto are buying into the need to sensationalise everything. Yes, it has been a bit wet lately and another few damp daya aren't going to cause many problems. Their rainfall totals are way out too. Given that the weather is coming in from the SW there's no excuses. Less drama and more accuracy I say. Looks like they've made a cats backside of their forecast for further north too.

[alexisj9]

7 minutes ago, MAF said:

OK, but my point is why give a warning for, say, London, when there appears to be no reason for it. Fair enough, some parts of Outer London where there are flood potential episodes need warning. But the Environment Agency give that advice already. I just cannot reason why we have a weather warning for London yet the forecast shows no substance for the warning. 

Do you know how many little streams are littered all over London, and the south east, that may also flood, there is a Bourne in the Purley Croydon area that is prone to flooding now and then for example. We'll just have to see.

[MAF]

4 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Do you know how many little streams are littered all over London, and the south east, that may also flood, there is a Bourne in the Purley Croydon area that is prone to flooding now and then for example. We'll just have to see.

Sorry, but you are not getting my point. What you have said above is exactly why i am questioning things as  @James1979 has alluded to. 

i live near the Thames; 1/4 mile away, yet i have no fear of flooding here. 

My whole point is that warnings should be more localised when issued by the Met O and then the Environment Agency are backing them up with their warnings too, rather than a 'one size fits all' situation

Edited January 19, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment removed

[yamkin]

9 minutes ago, MAF said:

Sorry, but you are not getting my point. What you have said above is exactly why i am questioning things as  @James1979 has alluded to. 

i dont live near Croydon, in fact if i did i would invest in a stab vest   but i live near the Thames; 1/4 mile away, yet i have no fear of flooding here. 

My whole point is that warnings should be more localised when issued by the Met O and then the Environment Agency are backing them up with their warnings too, rather than a 'one size fits all' situation

I live in Croydon and do not need a stab vest

[alexisj9]

28 minutes ago, MAF said:

Sorry, but you are not getting my point. What you have said above is exactly why i am questioning things as  @James1979 has alluded to. 

i dont live near Croydon, in fact if i did i would invest in a stab vest   but i live near the Thames; 1/4 mile away, yet i have no fear of flooding here. 

My whole point is that warnings should be more localised when issued by the Met O and then the Environment Agency are backing them up with their warnings too, rather than a 'one size fits all' situation

List of London's subterranean rivers.

How London's Rivers Got Their Names | Londonist

LONDONIST.COM

---

From Beverley Brook to Westbourne.

 

There are also little hidden streams. The metoffice knows what it is doing. It's unlikely any will cause a problem, but also all have been known to from time to time. 

 

[Badgers01]

34 minutes ago, MAF said:

Sorry, but you are not getting my point. What you have said above is exactly why i am questioning things as  @James1979 has alluded to. 

i dont live near Croydon, in fact if i did i would invest in a stab vest   but i live near the Thames; 1/4 mile away, yet i have no fear of flooding here. 

My whole point is that warnings should be more localised when issued by the Met O and then the Environment Agency are backing them up with their warnings too, rather than a 'one size fits all' situation

I get your point re the warnings but the comment about a stab vest is sensationalist and a bit much for a science based forum - quite rude actually 

[NewEra21]

GFS also highlighting that there is potential for Saturday night/Sunday morning. Definitely something to keep an eye on!

[Paul Sherman]

Never been a Fan of the Warning System the Meto use in the Uk and probably never will be. Last week vast swathes of the SE Had nearly 2 Inches of Rain and no warnings given, this week we have 36 hours of warnings for 10mm of rain over 3 days which hopefully is adjusted by the Met Office.

Although I feel the Yellow Rain Warning might indeed be replaced by a Wind Warning as it looks pretty rough for a few hours as a Cold Front clears through our area and gusts as high as 70mph could accompany some lively rainfall. 

The Amber is still warranted for NW Areas as this event is just starting to get going as Christoph now rapidly approaches, some have been led into a false sense of security up north with a little lull in proceedings but the Warm Thermal Conveyer is just now settling into place.

Looking further ahead is the ECM Going to be 5 from 5 with failed Snow Chances over the Weekend for areas further south, if it does then the Euro 4 and Euro Model have been dreadful this winter for modelling precip type.

[Lord Grogon]

I can’t deny there are beautiful pictures, but something feel unfair....

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

I can’t deny there are beautiful pictures, but something feel unfair....

Those camels look like they got the hump being stuck out in the cold

[SLEETY]

snow in sahara but not a snowflake here yet,no raging atlantic,but still no snow,not cold enough.

When we got that easterly but still it wasnt cold enough then I knew this winter was done..

.

Edited January 19, 2021 by SLEETY

[MAF]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

List of London's subterranean rivers.

How London's Rivers Got Their Names | Londonist

LONDONIST.COM

---

From Beverley Brook to Westbourne.

 

There are also little hidden streams. The metoffice knows what it is doing. It's unlikely any will cause a problem, but also all have been known to from time to time. 

 

debatable, but i give up on the topic now. none the less to say, i don't think warnings are localised enough on Met O* forecasts. 

*other sites are available and may be more accurate

[MAF]

1 hour ago, Badgers01 said:

I get your point re the warnings but the comment about a stab vest is sensationalist and a bit much for a science based forum - quite rude actually 

Ok, i will take that comment back  

sorry if i have offended anyone.

 

Edited January 19, 2021 by MAF

[Eagle Eye]

People on this Forum usually look to me for some good news.I have none. 

[Mac_SE]

Re the knashing of teeth over the lack of snow for our region this winter and the model exhaustion people now experiencing down here, it got me wondering whether we weren't all just a bit happier in the days before we got the ability to access and monitor the weather from every angle possible? I know I was. 

[MAF]

2 minutes ago, Mac_SE said:

Re the knashing of teeth over the lack of snow for our region this winter and the model exhaustion people now experiencing down here, it got me wondering whether we weren't all just a bit happier in the days before we got the ability to access and monitor the weather from every angle possible? I know I was. 

Me too! i used to take the ceefax forecast as the be all and end all. just seems the better the computing gets at forecasting, the less accurate it is.

[Daniel*]

23 minutes ago, Hurricane Squad said:

People on this Forum usually look to me for some good news.I have none. 

Haha that made me laugh. You might be a comedian in making

Weather horrible and akin to what we’re used to in recent winters grey and horribly mild, first time I reached double figures this year 11.7°C there’s been a big absence of a sense of days like this.

[Lord Grogon]

18 minutes ago, MAF said:

Me too! i used to take the ceefax forecast as the be all and end all. just seems the better the computing gets at forecasting, the less accurate it is.

Nothing beats complete ignorance. I was moving house at the start of Feb 2009 so was offline for a good few days. Had no idea what was coming. 8 inches of snow in Central London. Never experienced anything like it before or since. Plus my move meant I could walk to work. Best morning ever!

[NewEra21]

27 minutes ago, Mac_SE said:

Re the knashing of teeth over the lack of snow for our region this winter and the model exhaustion people now experiencing down here, it got me wondering whether we weren't all just a bit happier in the days before we got the ability to access and monitor the weather from every angle possible? I know I was. 

Totally agree. Years ago we'd have an idea of the weather for the week ahead but that was just about it, you didn't know what surprises may turn up. Nowadays we get a pretty good idea that there's not going to be any significant cold spell within 2 weeks to almost a month sometimes depending on the pattern. It just eats away the fun and you're always wishing time away chasing that next lala land freeze.

[NewEra21]

ECM still going with the snow for Sunday

[SHM040519]

25 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

ECM still going with the snow for Sunday

Sadly I can’t see this! Fully expect downgrades each day till then. Been let down too many times to even get excited!