South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Paul Sherman]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Fits well with the UKV's consistent modelling of rain along the Estuary I suppose.. 

Certainly looks that way at the moment but 10 miles north at Danbury with 367ft asl am sure there will be some decent falls

[cookie27]

Something interesting to look out for is that a few of the models don't have the warm sector reaching London and diving south east as it gets here.. So we keep the cooler air. In fact most only major that doesn't is Mets Fax Charts.. So either they right of egg on their face time. 

[Tim Bland]

8 minutes ago, cookie27 said:

Something interesting to look out for is that a few of the models don't have the warm sector reaching London and diving south east as it gets here.. So we keep the cooler air. In fact most only major that doesn't is Mets Fax Charts.. So either they right of egg on their face time. 

That’s today. Samedi 16th is tomorrow 

[Daniel*]

19 minutes ago, Planet Stow said:

Sorry maybe a generalisation. I checked Harrow Weald, Chingford, Walthamstow, Epping and Rotherhithe and they seem to have some what of a downgrade... 

 

Looks like they have just upgraded Epping... 

Think they are changing every 10/15mins

First time I’ve checked since morning and I have a heavy snow icon at 7am that’s the first snow symbol I’ve seen. I noticed temp was lower at 9am too with 2C but heavy rain with it.

[Dami]

Ah well not going to get my hopes up. 

[Hurricane Debby]

2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

It’s cold! Had a great long walk along Thames with sis, no place like home.  

I love these, thank you for sharing. What is that bird in the second image ????

[Joanne Swann]

Nice Amber warning looking very hopeful, about time we had some snow, even though its going to turn to rain later, i just want to see some white stuff fall from the sky 

[Met4Cast]

16 minutes ago, cookie27 said:

Something interesting to look out for is that a few of the models don't have the warm sector reaching London and diving south east as it gets here.. So we keep the cooler air. In fact most only major that doesn't is Mets Fax Charts.. So either they right of egg on their face time. 

You need to check the dew points - Surface temperatures will be okay but dew points will rapidly increase above freezing as the front moves through

[cookie27]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

That’s today. Samedi 16th is tomorrow 

That was my fault, can't read them on my mobile.. Here's GFS, but if run the models you can clearly see the warm sector diving south east. 

[cookie27]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

You need to check the dew points - Surface temperatures will be okay but dew points will rapidly increase above freezing as the front moves through

That is what I said earlier, but some aren't letting the warm vector in and hence lower dew points. This is what Aidan at Met Office hinted at as the front may stall or slow so much the cold undercuts and more snow for us. Frontal snow is notoriously difficult to forecast and now just a case of wait and see. 

[NYCSnow]

Not sure what to expect here in fairly low lying Surbiton which always seems to miss out, but after the dross so far this winter will be happy with a dusting! Alarm set for 6am just in case! 

[Bazza118]

the temperatures and more importantly the dew points have both quite quickly gone negative late afternoon here. The met office forecast for my local met office station at kenley has also changed from sleet from 5am to 8am and then rain from 9, to Snow from 5 to 8am then sleet until 11, and then rain. this tends to indicate the progress of the warm sector has slowed. It would be nice if the whole front stalled, as it did earlier in the week when we had persistant rain, but that wuld be to much to ask for. A few hours of falling snow will be very welcome.

[Joanne Swann]

7 minutes ago, NYCSnow said:

Not sure what to expect here in fairly low lying Surbiton which always seems to miss out, but after the dross so far this winter will be happy with a dusting! Alarm set for 6am just in case! 

mines set for 6am also 

[Daniel*]

15 minutes ago, Hurricane Debby said:

I love these, thank you for sharing. What is that bird in the second image ????

Thanks Debby  I have no idea can’t say I paid much attention a seagull? 

[Paul Sherman]

1930z

Temp 3.1c

Dewp 2.1c

Not really dropping much is it lol

[Southender]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

1930z

Temp 3.1c

Dewp 2.1c

Not really dropping much is it lol

Too much bloody cloud cover. Needs to bugger off.

[clark3r]

Sadly living half a Mile from the beach, I don’t hold too much hope for snow for me, I will not be wasting my lie in hope to wake up to a surprise though, looks like any one who gets snow won’t have it last long due to rising temperatures good luck all

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

1930z

Temp 3.1c

Dewp 2.1c

Not really dropping much is it lol

Falling very nicely here lol and I’m in middle of London 0.1°C dew point -0.3°C it’s colder than forecast for most of us. MetO and BBC 2C warm for me right now. Frost hollow Benson in S Oxfordshire down to -3°C.

 

[steveinsussex]

Everything already frozen here 

[tinybill]

looking at local  bbc  weather  for saterday it could   get  interesting   for us 

[Hurricane Debby]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Thanks Debby  I have no idea can’t say I paid much attention a seagull? 

I'm intrigued because I'm a bit of a twitcher and it just doesn't look like a gull to me.. I may be wrong, I'm no expert on the matter but I'd love it if there was anyone out there who may be able to cast some light ?

[Paul Sherman]

7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Falling very nicely here lol and I’m in middle of London 0.1°C dew point -0.3°C it’s colder than forecast for most of us. MetO and BBC 2C warm for me right now. Frost hollow Benson in S Oxfordshire down to -3°C.

 

That map shows perfectly the Influence of that bloody Sea around us, need the breeze to come from the west really or from the south west where the colder clearer weather is. As Southender says its too cloudy here

[Hammer]

Here is my current detail on Met Office app, so will see if this changes as likely will as others have mentioned.

[TSNWK]

-1.3 in Orpington North West Kent. Already below the 0 we are forecasted for tonight.  The more cold then the more resistant to any warm air which incresenly should shear away south east to our west.n

[chionomaniac]

Below freezing here. Was 1°c when I got home around 5pm. Gatwick showing -1°c and do-2°c. That’s 2°c colder than forecast