South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[BLS]

Morning 

Unlike yesterday morning I can sit and watch the cricket without looking out the window a getting fed up, chilly out today in headcorn. Dried out overnight apart the the obvious flooding in the fields and the river is still burst. Sun is also coming through.

 

As you can see my met office forecast has updated to light snow at 7 and then heavy snow at 8 and 9 tomorrow so hopefully will see something, although heavy rain for about 4/5 hours after so I don’t expect it to last long. 
 

Hope we all still see something though. Just worries me the GFS, ICON, AROME are going with nothing but rain but shall see what happen throughout the day.

Have a good day everyone and stay safe !!

[Jamie M]

If all else, I hope the sun returns back soon.

Current stats sit at 84.11 mm of rain (177.07%)

Sunshine at 5.2 hours (7.87%)

10/14 days have had no sun whatsoever

Mean Temp = 3.5°C (-1.3°C)

Mean Max Temp of 4.9°C (-2.4°C)

Grim is an understatement.

32 mm of rain yesterday.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

Hope yourselves and your Families, are well.

Regarding the debate about the difference between BBC Forecasts and the Met Office, it's easy to forget that the BBC ended their association with the Met Office, on 6th February 2018.

The BBC now receive their Forecasts from Private Forecasting Company, MeteoGroup.

Below, is the animated Forecast for here in SE12, and other parts of our Region until Tomorrow Afternoon:

SE12 - BBC Weather

Below, is last Night's MeteoGroup extended Forecast, courtesy of Louise Lear.

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

Tend to agree with the sentiments on the Model Thread, this Morning.

The 00z Model runs look to be a bit of an improvement, on Yesterday's 00z runs.

Longer term, prefer the G.F.S. to E.C.M.

The European Model seems to want to go down the West based -NAO route again.

Could it be that we don't see any downwelling, down Welling, Bexleyheath, or indeed any other part of Kent.

We may need that 2nd Warming,  being spoken about on the Strat Thread, to finally land the knockout blow, to the Purple Venom, before we get lucky in the S.E.

Hopefully the way forward, will become more clear in the next couple of Days. 

But it's certainly fascinating Model watching, at the moment.

Regards,

Tom.  

[Eagle Eye]

[Sparky68]

2 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

If all else, I hope the sun returns back soon.

Current stats sit at 84.11 mm of rain (177.07%)

Sunshine at 5.2 hours (7.87%)

10/14 days have had no sun whatsoever

Mean Temp = 3.5°C (-1.3°C)

Mean Max Temp of 4.9°C (-2.4°C)

Grim is an understatement.

32 mm of rain yesterday.

Depressing indeed

[Hammer]

Should see warnings around 10:30am today for tomorrow, as normally around that time they issue them, if they see reason to of course.

[simonhall6]

Latest update looks promising on my phone (I know they can be well off the Mark) 4 days with snow opportunities in the next week

 

[Gonzolio Martinez]

Paul posted this in the MOD thread:

The region may get a brief covering early tomorrow but personally, I'll believe it when I see it.

Edited January 15, 2021 by Gonzolio Martinez
Converting images back to GIF so they'll attach properly

[Paul Sherman]

All you need to know about GFS in 1 picture

 

[Jamie M]

 

There we are then. 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

4 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

 

There we are then. 

 

Hmmm I can see why it's more west than I thought.. 

The arpege has actually come round more to the EURO4 idea and gives 8cm to places North of London.. 

Hopefully many of us at least see some temp snow cover and throw a few snowballs 

[Polaris]

Friend who works at Luton Airport just WhatsApp me. The Airport have been put on Alert for 5-10cm of snowfall 04:00 - 11:00 tomorrow 

[MAF]

snowball throwing is to be socially distanced though

even with the warning updates on Met O i have become so disillusioned this winter that i will only believe its snowing when i actually see it.

i mean, come on, we had a week of wet, cold, easterly, frost and not a flake. tomorrow we have 4-6C and a S/SSE'ly and its going to snow?? nothing seems to make sense these days.

 

[BLS]

Met office can’t make its mind up !!

since my first post this morning it has changed from snow to rain back to snow and now sleet  

Now it’s saying all 3

[Paul Sherman]

3 minutes ago, MAF said:

snowball throwing is to be socially distanced though

even with the warning updates on Met O i have become so disillusioned this winter that i will only believe its snowing when i actually see it.

i mean, come on, we had a week of wet, cold, easterly, frost and not a flake. tomorrow we have 4-6C and a S/SSE'ly and its going to snow?? nothing seems to make sense these days.

 

Push of colder air from the Continent Mick later this afternoon establishes overnight so when the system arrives tomorrow morning winds are southerly ahead of it meaning no warming of the air from the Sea (only inland about 10 miles from the South Coast) will be wrong side of marginal and hence you only really need -4c to -6c uppers

A southerly more favourable than an easterly madness eh and what makes us love the weather so much

[Kent Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Spraggyy said:

Met office can’t make its mind up !!

since my first post this morning it has changed from snow to rain back to snow and now sleet  

Now it’s saying all 3

I would just go by human input and the window!

[Atmogenic]

I've given up looking at the MOD thread, now i'm no coldie but it would be nice to have an actual winter with snow laying around all over the place but until I see it, I have no optimism whatsoever no matter how excited people are in that thread. 

[Uxbridge90]

Guess it'll be a set the alarm early sort of day if you want to enjoy any snow before it turns into slush a few hours later.

 

[m1chaels]

23 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

 

There we are then. 

 

Note it gets the warning more for its potential impact than its potential likelihood....

[Thinon]

It's not very often you'll see this.. 9C and heavy snow on the same day!

[Hammer]

1 hour ago, Hammer said:

Should see warnings around 10:30am today for tomorrow, as normally around that time they issue them, if they see reason to of course.

Well done Hammer. 

[Matty88]

26 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

 

There we are then. 

 

Wow the snow gods have spoken, so that means guaranteed Snow righyt!? Nahhh!!!  Unfortunetely there'll be plenty of places in this zone that don't get lucky 

I personally feel the milder air flanking this front could make for a swift change-over from snow to rain but we'll see... I suppose a covering of snow that lasts for half a day is better than no snow right?! 

On the wider conversation - I'm actually quite glad we've lost the nagging marginal flow coming off the North Sea now - it failed to deliver for most South of Lincolnshire. I actually believe a marginal cold North Westerly or even Westerly  may be better for us guys, anything that doesn't come straight off the North Sea!! Obviously this changes if the uppers are cold enough, but if they aren't then it's just heartache all round. 

 

[Froze were the Days]

34 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

 

What the hell!?!...again no snow on the coasts? that's cold rain for me (again) for the sixth time this winter!!.

[claret047]

Still fairly dull here, although hard surfaces dried overnight. Hopefully the sun will make an appearance about noon as forecast. Looking forward to tomorrow and seeing snow on the ground.

As far as the further outlook is concerned hope springs eternal and we may be on the cusp of colder weather after the 20th. The MOD thread is getting excited again, but by tonight the Prozac will be consumed by the handful as a trend back to milder conditions at +500 hours makes an appearance and the mild rampers state it as a definite to happen.

Going out for a walk shortly as it is nice to just get out of the house for a short time and will definitely do so tomorrow if it snows.

Stay safe.

Kind Regards

Dave

[BLS]

Hope we are all ready for rain next week, yay !!! 
 

although end of the month still looks like it could go either way

as the old saying goes good things come to those who wait