South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

Could hear steady rain, falling for quite some time, during the overnight hours.

Fascinating watching the Meteox Radar returns.

You can visibly see cold air from the East, pecking away and undercutting the leading edge of that rain band, below.

Apologies, for the length of the link.

Will it rain today? Rainfall radar United Kingdom, realtime rainfall radar United Kingdom, lightning United Kingdom and snowradar in United Kingdom - source: meteox.com - rainfall radar Europe

Sammy Snowman, is taking a break from Forecasting Today but may pop in next Week, should things get interesting.

Instead, I would like to recall a very strange, almost X-Files, type tale, when I was putting my Weather predicting Competition together, over on the Winter Discussion Thread.

It is Weather related honest, so please stick with me!!

A couple of Years ago, I bought my Wife Colette, a cuddly Toy Bear, on Valentine's Day -

Colette decided the Bear was Female and decided to christen her, Darcy Bella.

Category 1 of my Weather predicting Competition, revolves around North Atlantic named Storms - Season 2020/21.

Imagine our amazement, when not one but both names appeared in the List, displayed below:

As we are aware, it was Bella that was the catalyst for delivering that short cold snap, a few Weeks ago.

Darcy is getting a little impatient now and wants Christoph (the next named Storm), to hurry up and "do one", so she can grab the limelight once more and gain a few extra Days, of notoriety.

Darcy Bella explained, that she signed the Contract with the Met Office, Met Eireann and the Dutch Met Office, so that she could earn a little pocket money, for Christmas.

She was so delighted to have a little money in her pocket, that she also did a little advertising work on the run up to Christmas. You may have seen her, appearing in the Christmas advert for Lindt chocolate.

  

As you can see quite clearly that it's her, although they had to shrink her heart a little.

She thoroughly enjoyed being covered in chocolate and enjoyed licking herself clean, once the Contract had ended.

Like most Females, Darcy Bella has a weakness for chocolate.

Although not 3 until Valentine's Day, she is already proving to be quite the entrepreneur.

I just want to reiterate, this is an entirely true Story and no harm came to a cuddly Toy Bear, in the making of it. 

Still pouring with Rain, here in S.E. London.

Regards,

Tom, Colette and Darcy Bella. 

Edited January 14, 2021 by TomSE12

[James Maidstone]

Currently in Maidstone 230ft ASL:

5.0 °C, DP 4.9 °C 

19mm of rain since midnight. 

Surprised no yellow rain warning out for today tbh.   Still think the Downs will get a covering late doors which will then freeze over.

[Easily sled]

1 hour ago, Easily sled said:

8 degrees in TW13.....

Now down to 6....

[lawrenk]

11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I never paid him too much attention, anyway... And, after all, he has only himself to blame?

I always loved reading Steve’s post for his combination of technical knowledge and enthusiasm.

Saying that, I followed what I assume was the exchange that resulted in him leaving and, to be honest, it just seemed like a fairly robust exchange between two knowledgeable posters. Nothing untoward as far as I can see and Steve certainly gave as good as he got. Of course, there may have been unpleasant posts that were removed that we never got to see. Would be good to have him back though.

This may be a very premature statement, given it’s only mid Jan, but if this winter carries on like this it will go down as one of the more depressing ones I can remember for us. Miserable, wet and cold, but never cold enough to do anything other than constantly flood the garden. It has though been a cracking “FI” Winter!

[Gowon]

14 minutes ago, andreas said:

The rain now has that look about it that suggests that sooner or later it will turn to sleet. 

  

Why? What does it look like? 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Right, time to put my serious Meteorological hat on now.

Although we've seen on the Model Thread recently, what can happen when things get too serious and precious.

Below, is the most recent Meteociel Weather Symbol Map.

Heavy Snow being reported as far South as Cranwell, Lincs.

And a Wintry mix, at Stanstead Airport. 

                            Most recent Temperatures and Dew Points

 

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited January 14, 2021 by TomSE12

[Paul Sherman]

Can see why the despondency in the Model Thread from the 00z Runs, GFS had an average of 4 Inches of Rain for the South and South East in the period from 14th to 29th Jan which would be a serious problem with the water table so high. Some of the more extreme ensembles had 150mm of Rain (6 Inches) and also the ECM out to Day 10 had multiple Low Pressures barrelling across Southern England as well.

Not good

[andreas]

9 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Why? What does it look like? 

I've seen it before - when the air is still and there is cold air not so far away moving towards us, some of the rain looks like flakes of recently melted snow. Normally within an hour or two it will have turned to sleet, and then if conditions are favourable to proper snow.  

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Gone a bit more of a wintry, sleety mess in the last half hour. Tempering with the boundary of freezing point. Glad I’ve at least seen something nevertheless! 

[Southender]

3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Can see why the despondency in the Model Thread from the 00z Runs, GFS had an average of 4 Inches of Rain for the South and South East in the period from 14th to 29th Jan which would be a serious problem with the water table so high. Some of the more extreme ensembles had 150mm of Rain (6 Inches) and also the ECM out to Day 10 had multiple Low Pressures barrelling across Southern England as well.

Not good

Exactly my point earlier. It looks shocking mate.

[PLANET THANET]

Good morning everyone and a very wet one at that, watching BBC breakfast this morning and very disappointing, the weathergirl on southeast showed that we will be getting 7 / 8 / 9c through next week (this weekend is the coldest it will be at 3c) before climbing, and yet on the mad thread they are saying that the cold weather will still be with us, Im hoping the southeast weather is wrong and does a u turn....I WANT SNOW !!!

[StLuke]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

3.4c here with a 2.8c Dew point and a raw South Easterly blowing into the Estuary flooding also a problem here 

I can confirm flooding is an issue in Southend, shed sitting in 6inches of water this morning, once again the story here is flooding and not snow!

[alexisj9]

DP is now slowly dropping here, will still show as four on Langdon bay 3.6 Unless being slightly further east, it's already slightly lower.

[Jamie M]

Slowly but surely it's dropping.

[Laurence Hill]

54 minutes ago, danm said:

Steve Murr has deleted his account?? That’s a disaster. 

You can follow him on Twitter

[Bogman]

11 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Can see why the despondency in the Model Thread from the 00z Runs, GFS had an average of 4 Inches of Rain for the South and South East in the period from 14th to 29th Jan which would be a serious problem with the water table so high. Some of the more extreme ensembles had 150mm of Rain (6 Inches) and also the ECM out to Day 10 had multiple Low Pressures barrelling across Southern England as well.

Not good

Sounds about right.

The winter of discontent.

[Matty88]

Heavy rain here still near Cambs, no sign of any wintry mix as yet but I suspect once that lobe of heavier PPN filters down from lincs we may start seeing some wet flakes mixed in. This afternoon is looking potentially interesting... if the transition goes well. 

[alexisj9]

DP b3.5 now.

[fatyido]

Certainly no sign of anything turning wintry here as yet, in St Neots, Cambs. Temp. still sitting at 4.2 and hasn’t changed for a couple of hrs. Just steady light rain here.

[danm]

4 minutes ago, Laurence Hill said:

You can follow him on Twitter

What's his twitter handle?

[Snowman31]

5 minutes ago, Laurence Hill said:

 

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Snowman31

[Laurence Hill]

1 minute ago, danm said:

What's his twitter handle?

Steve M

@Steve_RSport

[Snipper]

What a horrible wet night and God awful morning.

It was only about 6 months ago I was wishing for a drop rain. 

[Hotspur62]

17 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Can see why the despondency in the Model Thread from the 00z Runs, GFS had an average of 4 Inches of Rain for the South and South East in the period from 14th to 29th Jan which would be a serious problem with the water table so high. Some of the more extreme ensembles had 150mm of Rain (6 Inches) and also the ECM out to Day 10 had multiple Low Pressures barrelling across Southern England as well.

Not good

Yes I think you have to probably give credit where credit is due to met office.Since late last week they have been stating battleground area of heavy rain/snow being central or northern England so that puts us on the wrong side of things.At present there doesn’t seem anything to push things that 100-120 miles south that would put us back in the game.I too shared your thoughts of good chances of snow for this thread for last third of January but you have to say those chances are diminishing.This heavy rain really is depressing and although lovely to see pictures and videos of snow up north and good luck to them,it doesn’t make it any easier for us in the SE️.It could really be a case of so close but no cigar.Still time for corrections though so onwards and upwards

[danm]

7 minutes ago, Laurence Hill said:

Steve M

@Steve_RSport

Thank you. It seems like more went on that day that we weren't all privy to. 

Anyway, horrible overnight and morning. The garden is waterlogged. Hoping things switch to the right side of marginal for some of us later today.