South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[snowspotter]

3 minutes ago, Wynter said:

He changed his name to "No longer posts here" and the again to "SMU".

A pity, we've lost too many knowledgeable posters from here now. All because too many in the MOD thread can't keep their emotions in check.

Thats a disaster if Steves left he was one of the best posters on here

[lassie23]

A morning for sitting in front of the fire in your slippers with your cat.

[Frostbite1980]

Freezing in Herts with a strong wind, stronger than I thought it was meant to be...oh and did I mention its raining?

[Hotspur62]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

A morning for sitting in front of the fire in your slippers with your cat.

Yes-we have a king  charles cavalier and she is not impressed with this rain.She won’t go out for a tinkle in this lol.instead she has fallen asleep on my lap snoring-she sleeps for England this dog

Still pouring and temperature falling to 4.7 here in Locksbottom.

[Captain Shortwave]

3c and steady rain here. No sign of anything wintry yet.

[Daniel*]

4.6C, 24mm here since midnight, ECM had an inch of rain across most of region but it’s going to be more that that a lot more to come, 30-40mm seems likely, potentially wettest day in a long time. 

[Mark Lowry]

24 minutes ago, Mark Lowry said:

Settling in Rotherham 

Oops.  Tried to multi task , can’t walk and post at same time.  Apologies 

 

**slopes off through the back door**

[Sparky68]

11 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

3c and steady rain here. No sign of anything wintry yet.

Was just checking my cameras at home , think if we get lucky it will be late afternoon?

[Southender]

32 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

that was tongue in cheek just amuses me the amount of different takes on things. Realistically I doubt much will occur here today currently 9.c

Depends on where your bar is set really.

I've only had a quick scan of the models and yes Saturday there is a small chance of a rain to snow to rain type situation. Only a small window though of a couple of hours in the morning. All very marginal mush.

Mid-term I'm personally not seeing anything of note to get me excited from a cold/snow perspective. Toppling Azores ridges, mean winds from the West and wrong side of marginal stuff rolling in from the Atlantic, or a glancing cooler blow from the NW?.... Unless any of the more senior members on here can give me some hope otherwise?

Edited January 14, 2021 by Southender

[Eagle Eye]

I tried writing this post twice so instead here's the basic veiw. 

Due to entropy a future prediction decreases in chance of happening. 

The GFS has about a 30% chance of happening by about 140 hours although the chance is based off of 30 models and should really be based off of more. 

At the moment 17 out of 30 models are predicting almost exactly the same thing so an 56.1% chance of it happening. I like those odds at the moment. 

 

[Eagle Eye]

19 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

A morning for sitting in front of the fire in your slippers with your cat.

Without the slippers it would be exactly correct. 

[Sparky68]

1 minute ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

Without the slippers it would be exactly correct. 

Dont have a cat or slippers but do have a log burner. Unfortunatley I'm stuck in my office in MK

[TheGate]

Temp now 5.3c from 8.7c at 0645. 16mm of rain since midnight and the fields are totally sodden. Going to be a miserable day, and I think we have too far to fall to get any snow out of it.

[Lampostwatcher]

Temp 5.1 c 

Dew p  4.3c

[danm]

Steve Murr has deleted his account?? That’s a disaster. 

[Hammer]

Some wintryness doesn't seem to far from Peterborough at 9am. Sure its not a day for pure snow fans, but still a day where some surprises may occur even if very briefly.

[Uxbridge90]

Another wet and miserable morning, Spring couldn't arrive any sooner, today looks another dud IMBY (albeit nothing was ever really forecasted other than rain)

Still looks like some in the Northern and North Eastern parts of our region will see something wintery during the afternoon transition, not sure if it's worth getting exciting about though. 

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, danm said:

Steve Murr has deleted his account?? That’s a disaster. 

I never paid him too much attention, anyway... And, after all, he has only himself to blame?

[Captain Shortwave]

17 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

Was just checking my cameras at home , think if we get lucky it will be late afternoon?

I think lunchtime will be the turning point as colder air moves in from the north east. The 0c isotherm is currently sitting over N.Norfolk and around the Wash. As the front begins to split with a low forming over southern England, that will be when we lose the “warm” sector. However this is rather crude as other factors will dictate where snow will be allowed to fall.

Biggest concern is that the precipitation gets shredded before the transition so we get nothing more than a few flakes or (More relevant to areas close to the Wash/North sea) that winds veer more NE that being milder dew points and as such the precipitation remains as rain.

Watch out for ice and a harsh frost if skies clear overnight.

 

If skies clear more than predicted then -5c could be possible or potentially lower in areas with snow cover.

[andreas]

The rain now has that look about it that suggests that sooner or later it will turn to sleet. 

  

[paget]

44 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

A morning for sitting in front of the fire in your slippers with your cat.

Definitely, I have 4 cats now mum And dad have gone, they are very needy cats and I only have one lap!!!

Sue x 

[Paul Sherman]

25 minutes ago, Southender said:

Depends on where your bar is set really.

I've only had a quick scan of the models and yes Saturday there is a small chance of a rain to snow to rain type situation. Only a small window though of a couple of hours in the morning. All very marginal mush.

Mid-term I'm personally not seeing anything of note to get me excited from a cold/snow perspective. Toppling Azores ridges, mean winds from the West and wrong side of marginal stuff rolling in from the Atlantic, or a glancing cooler blow from the NW?.... Unless any of the more senior members on here can give me some hope otherwise?

Still not even looking at the Models until Saturday with regards the end of Jan. But these volitile swings are always here for events after or preceding a SSW 

Still hopeful atm

[James Maidstone]

Big contrast in current temps across the South East currently.  Dew points corresponding too

[smith25]

Just rain here so far in Braintree Essex

[Hotspur62]

15 minutes ago, danm said:

Steve Murr has deleted his account?? That’s a disaster. 

Yes he was a very knowledgeable poster and I thank him for all the informative posts but he did seem to go off on one with regards to the GH ATLANTIC RIDGE whatever you want to call it and maybe wasn’t too respectful to other posters who just had other opinions and views?As ever time is a healer and time for reflection.I am sure in time he will be back but there are so many other great posters that we can all learn from so let’s look forward not back
 

Now come on the snow let’s be having you!