South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Floatylight]

3 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Your joking what is going on we were not expecting anything this evening surprised. Let's see if we have any other reports across the region in the next few hours . 

It's only sleety rubbish atm anyway x

[E17boy]

3 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

It's only sleety rubbish atm anyway x

Lol it's better than just rain Keep us updated

[Polaris]

Looking at the models/TV forecasts/ online forecast from meto - all combined: 

A real chance northern Home Counties May just see the rain switch to snow tomorrow afternoon, especially with such a slow moving front backing west. 
 

Guess a lot will depend on intensity of any ppn as usual. 

[John Stevens]

12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

You guys are gonna love the ECM!!!

Yes!! Something to look forward to... 

[E17boy]

21 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

You guys are gonna love the ECM!!!

My area N/E London just in the boundary between the orange and the blue. Hope we all get to see the white stuff falling it's been a long wait and let's hope it's more than fine flurries unlike what we saw last week .

Anyway still awaiting to hear any more reports for tonight. I am not sure what the temperature or the dew points are currently but always be ready for a surprise

[Jamie M]

Wish these models would make their mind. First snow, then no snow, now snow. Giving me a bloody headache

[Uxbridge90]

Wonder if those warnings will be extended further South this evening

[chionomaniac]

2 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Wish these models would make their mind. First snow, then no snow, now snow. Giving me a bloody headache

Whatever they flip flop, when it comes down to it, it will be no snow  

[alexisj9]

34 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

You guys are gonna love the ECM!!!

No way, can it?

[Jamie M]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Whatever they flip flop, when it comes down to it, it will be no snow  

My chances of snowfall tomorrow have jumped massively from 0.1% to 0.2%. Always the case here on the North Kent coast where you bake in summer and soak in winter. Has to be perfecto!

[alexisj9]

23 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Looking at the models/TV forecasts/ online forecast from meto - all combined: 

A real chance northern Home Counties May just see the rain switch to snow tomorrow afternoon, especially with such a slow moving front backing west. 
 

Guess a lot will depend on intensity of any ppn as usual. 

Sounds like it's already starting.

[alexisj9]

11 minutes ago, E17boy said:

My area N/E London just in the boundary between the orange and the blue. Hope we all get to see the white stuff falling it's been a long wait and let's hope it's more than fine flurries unlike what we saw last week .

Anyway still awaiting to hear any more reports for tonight. I am not sure what the temperature or the dew points are currently but always be ready for a surprise

5and 5 here with drizzle lol, but the wind has started blowing from the north.

[Jamie M]

19:00

4.4c 4.3 dp 99% humidity

Fog

[E17boy]

10 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Wish these models would make their mind. First snow, then no snow, now snow. Giving me a bloody headache

Tell me about it, this morning was downbeat early this evening was bit upbeat and the cold was on again. I dare not visit the MOD thread now to see what  the ECM has thrown at us. I am holding myself back lol  

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, E17boy said:

Tell me about it, this morning was downbeat early this evening was bit upbeat and the cold was on again. I dare not visit the MOD thread now to see what  the ECM has thrown at us. I am holding myself back lol  

It looks good for us tomorrow lol, but I'll not look any further.

[Jamie M]

My rough guess as to where this warm front is based on temp obs from WU/official.

Looks like it's heading back west very slightly as a station just outside of Ashford rose by 3c in the last hour or two.

Stark difference between Lydd and Langdon Bay too, a good 4c difference between 26 miles.

[Southender]

Am I the only one that thinks the ECM snow charts are as useful as a choccie teapot? Not sure I’ve ever seen it predict anything correctly. It would genuinely get a nowcast wrong 

[Hurricane Debby]

Just seen our BBC South East Weather and I've got excited for the first time this winter. That will do me as I love the anticipation and the truly not knowing what will happen feeling.

Very happy, even if it does turn out to be a damp squib 

[HammerJack]

2 minutes ago, Southender said:

Am I the only one that thinks the ECM snow charts are as useful as a choccie teapot? Not sure I’ve ever seen it predict anything correctly. It would genuinely get a nowcast wrong 

Yep. But I will be glad for it to be right! I will believe it when I see the snow falling outside my window!

[Neilsouth]

Just now, Hurricane Debby said:

Just seen our BBC South East Weather and I've got excited for the first time this winter. That will do me as I love the anticipation and the truly not knowing what will happen feeling.

Very happy, even if it does turn out to be a damp squib 

Do tell! :D

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

5 hours ago, PLANET THANET said:

that "choppy thing" is actually the snowblower that was driven down from inverness, I know , I was there...

I figured it was, but made the video more fun imagining it to be a nasty working it’s way up the track Pac-Man style

[Polaris]

16 minutes ago, Southender said:

Am I the only one that thinks the ECM snow charts are as useful as a choccie teapot? Not sure I’ve ever seen it predict anything correctly. It would genuinely get a nowcast wrong 

The ECM snow accumulations are just pure fantasy. 
 

They are never correct. 
 

I remember it showing 25cm for me in 2018 12 hours out for one afternoon. 4cm fell that day. 

[Hurricane Debby]

17 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Do tell!

In a nutshell, they haven't got a clue and anything could happen !!

[E17boy]

18 minutes ago, Hurricane Debby said:

Just seen our BBC South East Weather and I've got excited for the first time this winter. That will do me as I love the anticipation and the truly not knowing what will happen feeling.

Very happy, even if it does turn out to be a damp squib 

What was the forcast on there?

[Tom Quintavalle]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

Evening all,

Not long been up since my old "fogey's" Afternoon nap and this Morning's despondency, seems to have been lifted somewhat, by the early 12z Model Runs.

Chances of short term Snow, seemed to have increased and I'm liking the look of the situation, long term.

A long way off but if the Synoptics land as G.F.S. suggest, I would be very encouraged if I lived in the East of our Region, especially on high ground.

   

 

A N to N.E. flow and 850's around -5c/-6c would be a dream set up, for the East Kent Downs, Capel-le-Ferne way.

As I stated a long way off but certainly something to keep an eye on.

Over to you, E.C.M.

Regards,

Tom. 

The ECM has burst the bubble of early optimism, given by the earlier 12z Runs, long term.

The phasing low, forecast to be over the U.K. at this time next Week, doesn't clear South Eastwards, like G.F.S.

       E.C.M. 12z (t192) 21st Jan.                         G.F.S 12z (t192) 21st Jan. 

     

Instead, it keeps the phased Low between Scotland and Norway.

This prevents colder air, digging down from the North.

But at Day 10 (t240), produces a vigorous little low at the base of the Trough, on the N.W. tip of France.

Still lots to be resolved for this time next Week and perhaps some Wintry surprises, before then.

MeteoGroup via Susan Powell, seem to be taking a middle ground solution, in their extended Forecast.

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

Regards,

Tom.  

Edited January 13, 2021 by TomSE12