South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[moogyboobles]

45 minutes ago, Bogman said:

Looks like we're back in the game then, especially for Satdee.

It will be my birthday and I would love nothing more than snow as my present.
I am told people were knee deep in snow when I was born in '79. 

[Bogman]

1 minute ago, moogyboobles said:

It will be my birthday and I would love nothing more than snow as my present.
I am told people were knee deep in snow when I was born in '79. 

Fingers crossed then.

[Uxbridge90]

Tomorrow starting to look a bit better for more parts of our region, I'm guessing the further North and East of the region you are the better it'll be in terms of transition. 

[Dami]

oh well back to just rain for me tomorrow

[clark3r]

No chance for disruptive snow on sat, not falling for that again, end of month maybe 

[westHimalayanfoothills]

5 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi wHf,

That's an easy one for Yours Truly, has to be Sat/Sun 30th/31st December 1978. See archive charts below, at the height of that event:

     500hPa Sunday 00z 31st Dec.                  850hPa Sunday 00z 31st Dec.

      

         Ppn Sunday 00z 31st Dec.

I was 23 at the time and working for a Credit Bookmaker in East Dulwich, S.E. London.

A few Days before Christmas, pressure rose strongly over Greenland and Atlantic Lows were forced on a track, further and further South, The Wintry Weather arrived in Scotland first, giving northern parts there, a White Christmas.

During the following few Days, Lows tracked further and further South, across the Atlantic and with it the Wintry Weather, edged further South.

The Morning Forecast for Saturday 30th Dec, suggested a Rain > Snow event, later in the Day.

Went to work that Morning, full of anticipation. I ventured out during my Lunch Break, and couldn't help notice that the wind, had a Continental bite to it.

Watching the Racing from Market Rasen, Lincs that Afternoon.(We received the Live pictures and Commentary from each Racecourse, every Afternoon). During the last Race (about 3.30, at that time), I noticed a few Snowflakes amongst the Rain, that was falling at the time.

After having our usual treat, Skate and Chips, myself and 3 colleagues went for a drink, in our local to work, in Lordship Lane, East Dulwich. The Pub door kept being blown open, by the ever strengthening and bitterly cold wind.

A little while later, during a trip to the Gents, I noticed a line of white on the floor of the loo, not to uncommon a sight in S.E. London at the time, I remember thinking to myself. On closer inspection, it turned out to be some powder Snow that had been blown through a grate in the Loo wall, and piled into a small drift.

Myself and my colleagues left the Pub around 8.30 and walked into an Easterly gale, the temperature of which literally took your breath away. Fine, powdery Snow, with the appearance of Icing Sugar, was blowing across the Roads, and was beginning to collect in the gutters, in drifts.

We headed to another Pub, around the corner in Camberwell.

We left the 2nd Pub around 10.30, by this time Snow was piling up above the edge of pavement level, quite impressive for an Inner London Borough (Southwark).

One of my colleagues offered to run me to my home in Bromley, a little over 8 Miles to the S.E.

There are a few hills between the 2 locations, and we carefully avoided them.

My colleagues car, was sliding all over the place but we finally arrived safely, at my home.

It was unrecognisable, from the place I'd left in the Morning. 

The drifting was so bad at this time (around Midnight), that I couldn't make out the path to my front door.

It was actually painful to breath in, with the combination of fine powdery Snow, and an Easterly gale.

It still remains the most potent combination of Wind, Cold and Snow I've witnessed, in my 55 Years of being interested in Meteorology.

I like to refer to the event, as a reverse Channel Low.

This particular Low found itself in the Channel, after the Jet Stream was forced further and further South, by the rise in Pressure, over Greenland.

My understanding of a Channel Low, is one that has approached from the S,W. and tries to dislodge entrenched, bitter cold, rather than being the catalyst, that introduces it.

In a short while, I will post up another example of a potent Channel Low, that caused my Father a problem.

Regards,

Tom.   

Thank you so much.

[Lord Grogon]

Good news is the latest GFS seems to be throwing up the mid-Atlantic block again. OK, it's just the op run and it's after day 8, but any straw is worth clutching.

Off to the Mod thread to see what the experts have to say....

[BLS]

Am I right in thinking tomorrow and Saturday for Kent is just going to be rain ? Especially for me In TN27  not getting my hopes up at all 

[E17boy]

Hi Good evening lovely peeps

Hope everyone is well. Bit of a grim day here in Walthamstow rain and drizzle on and off.

I read on some model updates this morning before I started my work at home and must admit my heart was sunk reading how the cold next week had been watered down.

Coming back on this evening I nearly fell of my chair when I saw the met update for our region what a turnaround from the morning. Just shows you how much of a volatile this set up is at the moment, so looking ahead more than 3 days it's not worth the stress.

Anyway I am a happy bunny now a change from earlier. Hope you all have had a great day and hey fingers crossed things are finally beginning to look up for our region . 

Hope you all have a great evening stay safe

regards

[SHM040519]

Let’s see where we are in an hour with the 12z finished!

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Tomorrow starting to look a bit better for more parts of our region, I'm guessing the further North and East of the region you are the better it'll be in terms of transition. 

Yes, from a quick view of the latest high res models  I’d guess that rain will start to turn to snow around Peterborough to kings Lyn area around midday and then spreads slowly south during the afternoon and evening. Further north and east you are and & with any altitude the better. I’d hazard a guess at 2-3cm for Luton area (150asl) I’d not expect settling snow for inside the m25 or south of the Thames but could see faking snow / sleet in the evening as the front clears south. Sat is looking more of an east / west split, so further east in the region the better so Essex / kent / Norfolk / Suffolk etc looking good 

[Hurricane Debby]

59 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

Good news is the latest GFS seems to be throwing up the mid-Atlantic block again. OK, it's just the op run and it's after day 8, but any straw is worth clutching.

Off to the Mod thread to see what the experts have to say....

Good luck with that 

[yamkin]

Harmonie model did very well with last Friday's snow showers off the north sea covering parts of Essex, London & Kent

Harmonie model is going for wintry showers further south covering London & Kent this Thursday from approx 16:00 - 21:00 hrs 

Always remember, subject to change 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Evening all,

Not long been up since my old "fogey's" Afternoon nap and this Morning's despondency, seems to have been lifted somewhat, by the early 12z Model Runs.

Chances of short term Snow, seemed to have increased and I'm liking the look of the situation, long term.

A long way off but if the Synoptics land as G.F.S. suggest, I would be very encouraged if I lived in the East of our Region, especially on high ground.

   

 

A N to N.E. flow and 850's around -5c/-6c would be a dream set up, for the East Kent Downs, Capel-le-Ferne way.

As I stated a long way off but certainly something to keep an eye on.

Over to you, E.C.M.

Regards,

Tom. 

[Stu_London]

11 hours ago, Jimmyh said:

Oh I have missed it all again. Sounds like the original snow watch the BBC used to do in the early days of the Internet. Some of those fights and spats were legendary. Did it happen on the latest Mod thread??

Even I got banned from Net Weather once and I am literally the nicest bloke in the world who would never say a bad word about anyone or in any way wind them up, particularly those who were very susceptible to being wound up. Paul Sherman will verify this. 

Anyway, the 12Z GFS shows yet again nothing is certain for next week - I suspect it will be the weekend before things start to firm an FI might start at +48hrs for a little while.

In the nearer term I reckon tomorrow is a bust for nearly all. Saturday, the further north and east you are in the region, the better your chances - Nothing down in balmy Tunbridge wells as usual. 

[Eagle Eye]

21 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

For our younger members just watch this Video from about 1 min onwards to see just what a true beast from the east can do. Whole Trains buried.

 

And then for some of the older members I don't know if it was a Beast but an incredible Winter of 1962/63 certainly looked like one. 

 

Looking at the charts it was a true beast. 

[Tim Bland]

Fine lines for our region over the next few days.. look at this right now. There’s a 7c difference in Northamptonshire..

[Floatylight]

Sleety,snow mix starting in colchester. 

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

Sleety,snow mix starting in colchester. 

A bit early surely, front can't already be occluding can it?

[Paul Sherman]

Yh looking at Tims map you can easily see where the Warm Front is atm. On a bigger scale map it runs from Cheshire through the West Midlands down through Oxford then through the Middle of London right down through to Hertsmoncioux. Temp/Dps along the WF are 10c/9c whereas further east in places like Wattisham for example just 3c/1c

Oh and Stu London is ok I suppose if you like that sort of thing - Hahahaha

No seriously he is a top bloke and gentle giant all 6ft 8" of him lol

 

[Hotspur62]

Today was a miserable day with heavy drizzle/rain on and off all day.It was a mild day and today was 8.6 here beating yesterday’s 8.0 so mildest day of year.Tomorrow looks even worse down here but it will be colder rain with temperature forecast to reach 6.As I mentioned a couple days ago those in the north of the region hopefully will see a transition from rain to snow in the afternoon/evening and if you have elevation of 150m plus the better your chances.Saturday also holds potential for something wintry and could include those more in the South and East of the region(Kent Essex Suffolk and Sussex).Still a bit far out atm on that one but by tomorrow evening we will know more.

Good luck to those who may see snow tomorrow 

 

stay safe

[Floatylight]

5 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

 no its not part of that front.

 

Edited January 13, 2021 by Floatylight

[E17boy]

8 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

Sleety,snow mix starting in colchester. 

Your joking what is going on we were not expecting anything this evening surprised. Let's see if we have any other reports across the region in the next few hours . 

[Tim Bland]

You guys are gonna love the ECM!!!

[Floatylight]

3 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

 

Scrub that,if you look on radar it is and its green..sorry I busy atm .wasn't expecting it tbf.x