South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[lassie23]

Everything ends up as drizzle here. You can have the models showing minus 20 uppers for the middle of January and when the time comes, BOOM drizzle, you can have snow depth charts showing 20cm of snow, BOOM drizzle. Should be called the Drizzle Output Discussion

[Blazerblue]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

By which time I'll have sprouted a pair of wings!

But it says so

So it’s true I tell ya

[simonhall6]

10 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

But it says so

So it’s true I tell ya

Seems ours chances are increasing for us to at least see some white stuff falling from the  sky tomorrow . Mine weather app has now updated from heavy rain to heavy snow for tomorrow evening !!

[snowblind]

Amber warnings out for snow today and Thursday now for parts of Scotland and northern England. Nothing for us yet though.

[Southender]

Not sure why there are so many toys being thrown around in the MAD thread.

This is playing out almost exactly as the METO long range has hinted.

In short snow chances greater up North and hills, where as down South a wintry mix at best, certainly for the next 10 days at least.

If we are going to go proper cold, with a proper chance of snow, I cant see it being before the last week of Jan, into the first week of February to be honest. The SSW after effects don't appear to be playing ball completely at the moment. Plenty of time for changes however, so far from Winter is over.

Edited January 13, 2021 by Southender

[Captain Shortwave]

Hi-resolution models suggesting snow from tomorrow lunchtime in the north west of the region that will extend southwards during the afternoon.

Harmonie

 

However there are divergences in the models. Euro4 for instance kills the precipitation by tomorrow lunchtime and west of this region.

In short a chance tomorrow to see snow falling, especially in northern parts of the region.

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Exactly 16 Years earlier, than my previous Post and around about the same time in the Evening, our Region was struck by an equally potent blizzard.

As we are aware, the first heavy Snows of the epic I962/63 Winter had appeared in our Region on Boxing Day.

The Days between 26th and 30th December, had remained bitterly cold but not as Snowy, as Boxing Day.

Trouble was lurking away to the S,W. though and was about to have a serious impact, on our Region.

I was 7 at the time and don't have any recollection of this specific event but do have memories of that incredible Winter, in general. Myself and my Family were living, to the South of Bromley, near Hayes.

My Father was working for the Southern Region of British Rail at the time, maintaining Track, Bridges and Tunnels.

On the Night of the 30th December 1962, he was working with his "gang" on track, close to London Bridge.

The Blizzard struck around 9 PM and Dad and his colleagues, had to abandon their work.

They then had to endure a bitterly cold wait for a Train, until around 5 AM. The heavy Snow, accompanied by Gale Force winds, were starting to cause the Southern Region of British Rail major problems, with the amount of drifting Snow.

Dad eventually caught that 5 AM Train, bound for Hayes on the mid-Kent line but the Train could get no further than Elmers End, around 3 and a half miles from where we lived. By that time, the Snow had drifted to above Platform level, and the Southern Region was facing a complete shutdown.

Dad completed the rest of the journey, on foot.

But trying to walk through Snow, in places up to the top of his Wellies , proved a very difficult task.

Dad eventually got home after trudging through the severely drifting Snow, some 4 hours later!!

Below, are some archive charts, at the height of that event:

 500hPa Sunday 00z 31st Dec, 1962      850hPa Sunday 00z 31st Dec, 1962 

     

    Ppn Sunday 00z 31st Dec, 1962 

 

This wasn't so much a Channel Low, the bitter cold had set in across our Region a few Days before Christmas, so much so that Low Pressure bringing with it milder air, could only get as far North as Central France.

Regards,

Tom.   

Edited January 13, 2021 by TomSE12

[Kent Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Hi-resolution models suggesting snow from tomorrow lunchtime in the north west of the region that will extend southwards during the afternoon.

Harmonie

 

However there are divergences in the models. Euro4 for instance kills the precipitation by tomorrow lunchtime and west of this region.

In short a chance tomorrow to see snow falling, especially in northern parts of the region.

 

Fingers crossed for the timing CS, I'm hoping the models are underplaying the colder air. Early doors Saturday is an interesting feature too but the ECM not as bullish as the GFS for this in our Region.

 

 

[mattneal]

16 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Hi-resolution models suggesting snow from tomorrow lunchtime in the north west of the region that will extend southwards during the afternoon.

Harmonie

 

However there are divergences in the models. Euro4 for instance kills the precipitation by tomorrow lunchtime and west of this region.

In short a chance tomorrow to see snow falling, especially in northern parts of the region.

 

On this chart are the orange line sleet and the white lines snow? 

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Jamie M said:

Home and Dry uses UKV for its forecasting and there's certainly a sleet fest for Saturday

I don't trust it but it's certainly interesting to see.

Snow where I am, we'll see, probably means Whitfield and capel.

[Paul Sherman]

@ Kent Blizzard thats strange as the ECM I saw for the 00z Run did show our area getting impacted on Saturday Morning and the 00z and 06z GFS showing Rain. These model runs are all over the place.

 

 

[snowblind]

Yellow warning out for Saturday now. This doesn't affect our region though.

[alexisj9]

10 minutes ago, mattneal said:

On this chart are the orange line sleet and the white lines snow? 

Yes.

[Matty88]

Still touch and go I'd say... some (but not all) models on board for producing some snow tomorrow. And GFS having none of it for the Saturday snow potential at this stage. Could go either way?  

[Frostbite1980]

Is it just me or knowing we had a SSW so early on a decending easterly QBO, low solar activity, a weakening La Nina and we still can't get cold this year things are looking bleak for future years

[Lord Grogon]

47 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:

Seems ours chances are increasing for us to at least see some white stuff falling from the  sky tomorrow . Mine weather app has now updated from heavy rain to heavy snow for tomorrow evening !!

 

1 hour ago, Blazerblue said:

But it says so

So it’s true I tell ya

 

One problem is that the BBC now use Meteogroup. Their app (Weatherpro) uses different weather stations. The one for Brentwood is actually 12 miles NW in Epping at 110m elevation.

Mine at Upminster is even sillier. It uses the City Airport station which is surrounded by water on 3 sides. Still rain all the way there. 

You may be lucky. Brentwood is a bit higher than Upminster. I once left Upminster for a run in the rain and there was lying snow just outside of Brentwood so even a little height can make a difference.

The Met Office's weather station is at Brentwood Leisure Centre. That is currently showing 1 hour of sleet on Saturday midday. Its a start.....

[Paul Sherman]

I really would not focus on tomorrow being anything more than nuisence value for down here, might get a decent covering around Cambs/Norfolk/Lincs/Rutland etc as the Front occludes as it heads off south and east turning the back edge slops to heavier snow for a time. Its Saturday that really interests me tbh, everything looks good, wet bulb, temps and dewpoints and time of arrival for precip around 6-9am on Saturday morning.

I fully expect by Friday we will have some sort of yellow warning for down in the South East for this scenario even for the risk as it certainly is there on multiple models.

[Cableguy]

Too far west here for anything other than rain i think, hopefully something better than marginal muck for those of you further east in the region on Saturday

Edited January 13, 2021 by Cableguy

[Sparky68]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I really would not focus on tomorrow being anything more than nuisence value for down here, might get a decent covering around Cambs/Norfolk/Lincs/Rutland etc as the Front occludes as it heads off south and east turning the back edge slops to heavier snow for a time. Its Saturday that really interests me tbh, everything looks good, wet bulb, temps and dewpoints and time of arrival for precip around 6-9am on Saturday morning.

I fully expect by Friday we will have some sort of yellow warning for down in the South East for this scenario even for the risk as it certainly is there on multiple models.

Fingers crossed for Cambs...

[yamkin]

43 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Hi-resolution models suggesting snow from tomorrow lunchtime in the north west of the region that will extend southwards during the afternoon.

Harmonie

 

However there are divergences in the models. Euro4 for instance kills the precipitation by tomorrow lunchtime and west of this region.

In short a chance tomorrow to see snow falling, especially in northern parts of the region.

 

This model was very good re the snow showers in the SE sector last Friday

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

 

I fully expect by Friday we will have some sort of yellow warning for down in the South East for this scenario even for the risk as it certainly is there on multiple models.

I hope we don't get it whenever we have a Yellow Warning we don't get it. 

[Paul Sherman]

10 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

Fingers crossed for Cambs...

Yh its one of the hardest set-ups for Models to model correctly when you have a Warm Front that has effectively ground to a halt and a crashing cold front colliding with it making it Occlude its where the occlusion takes place that sees the pep up of precip, most models going for that over Scotland and NE England hence the Amber warning, but would not be surprised to see areas around the Wash, Cambs, Norfolk etc get in on the act. Saturdays looking a bit more clear cut with much more favourable synoptics having been present over Friday which should be dry and cold with rain diving south and east into a more established cold pool.

[winterfreak]

37 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Is it just me or knowing we had a SSW so early on a decending easterly QBO, low solar activity, a weakening La Nina and we still can't get cold this year things are looking bleak for future years

Depressingly dire thought isn’t it?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Hoping for some snow in King’s Lynn over the next day or two. 

As for the model output past the 3 day mark, that’s anyone’s guess. Think I may stick in here for the meantime. It’s not good for anyone’s mental health watching the runs each day at the moment!! 

[dubmuffin]

Early Feb is often good for us but it is a long, and depressingly grey and damp wait. Who knows, we could get a surprise fall later this week, but I'm trying not to look too hard at the moment as there has been so much disappointment