South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[SHM040519]

1 minute ago, Jamie M said:

Home and Dry uses UKV for its forecasting and there's certainly a sleet fest for Saturday

I don't trust it but it's certainly interesting to see.

Can’t wait for the sleet fest! Will defo make a sleetman! Hope you can tell I’m being sarcastic!

[Jamie M]

1 minute ago, Ben Capee McInnes said:

Can’t wait for the sleet fest! Will defo make a sleetman! Hope you can tell I’m being sarcastic!

I'll be making a slushman and mudman duo over here. 

 

[Lampostwatcher]

C170632A-9D22-46C2-888F-06960759D0C0.webp

[snowrye]

Oh good, sleet, my favourite

[Hotspur62]

Went to bed last night and all looked more promising for us in SE thread(best charts across the board for 48 hours).This morning looked at Mod thread and it appears to have gone way of the pear for our target area of 20th.Let’s see what happens in next 24 hours but it is amazing how all models have flipped somewhat overnight.Maybe the 2nd warming is having an effect on the models causing all this mayhem?

If Steve M has been banned or suspended then after this mornings charts maybe not a bad thing.He said in early December that he was taking time out to spend with his family.As much as I love the weather your family is always Number 1 and he can now do that and if things work out well can spend time messing about in the snow end of next week(positive thinking).

[Sparky68]

Does seem to be a big downturn in the snow chances. Frosty or snow either will do , if not , fast forward to Spring please.

[SHM040519]

8 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

C170632A-9D22-46C2-888F-06960759D0C0.webp 243.79 kB · 5 downloads

Interesting....somehow I cant see it! But we shall see 

[pinball wizard]

7 hours ago, yamkin said:

This is not like Steve M to use such disgraceful language. Something here does not sound right.

There's certainly some odd moderating going on. My post stating Steve was no longer posting has been taken down without so much as a pm to me to explain why, thats not cricket, I don't believe my post broke any rules, I've been on this forum for around 15 years and never seen anything like this before. I think the mods need a bit of a look at themselves.

[snowblind]

51 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

I wouldn’t dream of saying this in the main thread but I suspect the MO have access to superior tools than the public models that we see, so on balance I’d back them.

Indeed. Plus they are trained professionals whereas most of us are just enthusiastic amateurs so I'm sure their interpretation of the models is better than ours. The models are nice to look at sometimes and can give you a glimpse of possible futures but unless the met office mention it it's not very likely IMHO. They do get things wrong on occasions but generally I think are pretty good.

[Eagle Eye]

The trouble with all this is that there will be few people left allowed to post on the mod thread. It get's way too heated for Reading Weather Models on a sight where not everyone are experts just looking to offer their insights. 

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

I obviously missed the problems on the Model Thread, the other Night.

It's a great shame that Steve has been banned.

As we are aware, Steve is one of the most knowledgeable Members on here, in a technical way.

I can remember in the early Days of my Membership, as TomSE20, his post were the ones I looked for first thing.

Steve will no doubt remember overnight Feb 1st/2nd 2009, when he lived in Greenhithe. We both were commenting on the impressive Radar returns, during that epic Thames Streamer event and both heard the huge cracks of thunder, in the early hours of Monday 2nd February.

I think a few Years earlier, Steve put an online Magazine together for the S.E. Thread and kindly included an article I wrote about a Snow Chase I went on with my 1st Wife, to Capel-le-Ferne, on the E.Kent Downs, between Dover and Folkestone. It was February 1983 and my Wife was 3 Months pregnant, with our Daughter and my Son was just short of 2 and strapped, in a Buggy.

When we boarded the Dover to Folkestone bus and asked for 2 Adults to Capel, the Bus Driver came back with, "Do you realise how bad it is up there, with lots of deep drifts". He wasn't joking, stepped down from the Bus into around 6" of Snow. There are many Bungalows along the Cliff top at Capel-le-Ferne, and Snowdrifts were up to the eaves of the Bungalows. Residents told us, that the Snow had been virtually continuous for a Day and a half. A few properties were struck by lightning , in that extremely East Kent Streamer event. Below, are the archive charts from that event:

 

I used to post frequently on the Model Thread but stopped a couple of Years ago, after being accused of QUOTE :  "Laying down guilt trips." 

A few Years ago, a Member suggested that heat/humidity were QUOTE: "A win/win situation for all." All I did was point out that this wasn't the case for all, and that my tolerance of heat/humidity has been greatly reduced, after my Stroke of September 2015.

The problem is, the Thread is full of biased, IMBY viewpoints. All I attempted to do, was to offer a bit of balance, to that sweeping statement.

I still view the Model Thread but decided not to post in there anymore. I  now confine my posting to this Thread and "hosting" Competitions, Horse Racing, Golf, Weather predicting, etc.

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited January 13, 2021 by TomSE12

[Kent Blizzard]

Hate it when the esembles don't play ball, cracks appearing.

I hate writing anything off because imo always nice to have a glimmer of hope, but to me it looks like a complete flip.

One positive I guess is at least with no snow, more and more vaccinations can be done without travel disruption.

 

 

Edited January 13, 2021 by Kent Blizzard

[Jamie M]

9 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

I obviously missed the problems on the Model Thread, the other Night.

It's a great shame that Steve has been banned.

As we are aware, Steve is one of the most knowledgeable Members on here, in a technical way.

I can remember in the early Days of my Membership, as TomSE20, his post were the ones I looked for first thing.

Steve will no doubt remember overnight Feb 1st/2nd 2009, when he lived in Greenhithe. We both were commenting on the impressive Radar returns, during that epic Thames Streamer event and both heard the huge cracks of thunder, in the early hours of Monday 2nd February.

I think a few Years earlier, Steve put an online Magazine together for the S.E. Thread and kindly included an article I wrote about a Snow Chase I went on with my 1st Wife, to Capel-le-Ferne, on the E.Kent Downs, between Dover and Folkestone. It was February 1983 and my Wife was 3 Months pregnant, with our Daughter and my Son was just short of 2 and strapped, in a Buggy.

When we boarded the Dover to Folkestone bus and asked for 2 Adults to Capel, the Bus Driver came back with, "Do you realise how bad it is up there, with lots of deep drifts". He wasn't joking, stepped down from the Bus into around 6" of Snow. There are many Bungalows along the Cliff top at Capel-le-Ferne, and Snowdrifts were up to the eaves of the Bungalows. Residents told us, that the Snow had been virtually continuous for a Day and a half. A few properties were struck by lightning , in that extremely East Kent Streamer event. Below, are the archive charts from that event:

 

I used to post frequently on the Model Thread but stopped a couple of Years ago, after being accused of QUOTE :  "Laying down guilt trips." 

A few Years ago, a Member suggested that heat/humidity were QUOTE: "A win/win situation for all." All I did was point out that this wasn't the case for all, and that my tolerance of heat/humidity has been greatly reduced, after my Stroke of September 2015.

The problem is, the Thread is full of biased, IMBY viewpoints. All I attempted to do, was to offer a bit of balance, to that sweeping statement.

I still view the Model Thread but decided not to post in there anymore. I  now confine my posting to this Thread and "hosting" Competitions, Horse Racing, Golf, Weather predicting, etc.

Regards,

Tom. 

The streamer of Feb 1983 was indeed a very lively one indeed! The temperatures weren't exactly very extreme but the snow totals are certainly notable for Eastern Kent. 16 cm at Manston with a low of -1.5°C on the 9th with a thunderstorm recorded as happening the previous day. Langdon Bay, near the White Cliffs, recorded 20 cm with a low of -1.9°C with a maxima of -0.1°C. Anvil Green, on the outskirts of Canterbury, recorded 22 cm with a low of -1.8°C. You'd expect the maxima to be a lot lower considering all the snow but it's surprising. More of a persistent amount of cold, rather than on the very extreme end.

  

[NewEra21]

The problem with the mod thread is all you see is boom this and boom that, people looking at 850s, snow depths etc etc when the pattern isn't even locked in. 

I'm all for the fun of looking at snow charts etc, but the ott ramping in the mod thread is just unrealistic and can fool anyone into thinking the next mini ice age is on our doorstep.

And if you try to be more grounded on the mod thread you'll just get shot down for not saying what people want to hear. I'm all for disagreements and different opinions, but the mod thread is a very IMBY spiteful mess at times. One northern guy last night was literally boasting how he hopes the SE gets nothing while he gets buried in snow. 

And while there are some great informative posters on the mod thread, there are also a lot of childish know it alls. 

Rant over, sorry guys

Edited January 13, 2021 by NewEra21

[Paul Sherman]

I think the Met Office might be putting some warnings in for areas further south for Saturday tbh and it might be a developing situation here. Regarding tomorrows snowfall not so cut and dried with obviously higher areas doing much better but 1 thing I look for is cross model agreement more esp the better precip guiding models 

Thursday we have little agreement from all the models still for when and if snow falls but saturday well.........

Saturday gets a tick from UKV, ECM, Harmonie but a no from ICON (00z) Arpege and GooFuS

I would expect GFS to jump on board and play catch up possibly seeing as its the worst at Mesoscale and if it does we could see some surprises on Saturday, once again places near or 10 miles within the coasts no cigar due to SE winds as the low traverses the UK and onshore flow keeps it as sleet probably.

Am sticking by the 25-31st Jan still looking interesting and Models all over the place atm due to the recent SSW effects on the data.

Next 7 days looks set with the meandering lows that are filling the Atlantic Basin keeping it unsettled with some areas coming up against colder weather turning the rain to snow more esp Midlands Northwards, its what happens next weekend onwards we need to focus on or the 23rd Onwards.

[PiscesStar]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Pretty poor from the op!!!its clear this will happen now and the midlands is a very good spot to be in!!how much is anyones guess!wonder what the 42 hour chart will show?

And for the snow starved south East corner... What do we have?? 

[lawrenk]

59 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Indeed. Plus they are trained professionals whereas most of us are just enthusiastic amateurs so I'm sure their interpretation of the models is better than ours. The models are nice to look at sometimes and can give you a glimpse of possible futures but unless the met office mention it it's not very likely IMHO. They do get things wrong on occasions but generally I think are pretty good.

Couldn’t agree more.

I took the mickey myself yesterday at their wording on the update but, to my mind, this winter their mid and long rangers, as they usually are, have been pretty accurate with what we’ve actually experienced on the ground.

It’s why, from a selfish IMBY view, I’m not too deflated over the apparent downgrade this morning, as it was never looking particularly exciting for us in the SE. Battleground scenario’s I know can occasionally deliver but it felt as though the battleground was always likely to be a good deal further north, leaving us with a rain fest.

I am though encouraged by the comments of some very respected posters who are looking at the last week of Jan/early Feb for the real deal. Whatever anyone says I think Easterlies/North Easterlies give everyone the best chance, including the south west/west who got clobbered from the BFTE in 2018.

[Reefseeker]

Grey and drizzly this morning, waking up to a cold house even with a functioning boiler (I hope those without are keeping warm somehow).

I see doom and gloom in the MAD this morning as the Siberian style winter synoptics seem off the table, for now anyway. But, as others have said, 1. we're in the fallout from an SSW, so expect great uncertainty in the models, 2. the best dates for us were always 23 Jan and onwards, 3. we might have snow this week anyway, 4. we aren't all seeking sub-20 uppers and 10ft snow drifts, a day or two of snow to enjoy would be rather nice and would avoid mass disruption to hospital care and the vaccinations programme.

I try to stay positive and on-topic, but if I can just chime in on the 'banned' poster debate with a less popular POV - I have a long memory and the author of the sausage-shaped high has been on my ignore list for a very long time...

[yamkin]

9 hours ago, yamkin said:

I remember many years ago when Francis Wilson was the only one forecasting snow for London. The following day there was settled snow and Sky quickly made him a lucrative off to join their weather team.

@TomSE12 I'm sure you remember this as well 

[Laurence Hill]

41 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

The problem with the mod thread is all you see is boom this and boom that, people looking at 850s, snow depths etc etc when the pattern isn't even locked in. 

I'm all for the fun of looking at snow charts etc, but the ott ramping in the mod thread is just unrealistic and can fool anyone into thinking the next mini ice age is on our doorstep.

And if you try to be more grounded on the mod thread you'll just get shot down for not saying what people want to hear. I'm all for disagreements and different opinions, but the mod thread is a very IMBY spiteful mess at times. One northern guy last night was literally boasting how he hopes the SE gets nothing while he gets buried in snow. 

And while there are some great informative posters on the mod thread, there are also a lot of childish know it alls. 

Rant over, sorry guys

Agree and very cliquey as well.

[Bogman]

What a thoroughly miserable morning. That snizzly rain that goes right through you and clings to you.

3 degrees and 'orrible.

 

Fingers crossed for Saturday then, as per Paul's post above. Would make a nice change.

[Tom Quintavalle]

12 hours ago, westHimalayanfoothills said:

does anyone remember any channel low or battlegroud snow from which london and south east recieved significant snow. Just wanted to look up the charts from the archive.

Hi wHf,

That's an easy one for Yours Truly, has to be Sat/Sun 30th/31st December 1978. See archive charts below, at the height of that event:

     500hPa Sunday 00z 31st Dec.                  850hPa Sunday 00z 31st Dec.

      

         Ppn Sunday 00z 31st Dec.

I was 23 at the time and working for a Credit Bookmaker in East Dulwich, S.E. London.

A few Days before Christmas, pressure rose strongly over Greenland and Atlantic Lows were forced on a track, further and further South, The Wintry Weather arrived in Scotland first, giving northern parts there, a White Christmas.

During the following few Days, Lows tracked further and further South, across the Atlantic and with it the Wintry Weather, edged further South.

The Morning Forecast for Saturday 30th Dec, suggested a Rain > Snow event, later in the Day.

Went to work that Morning, full of anticipation. I ventured out during my Lunch Break, and couldn't help notice that the wind, had a Continental bite to it.

Watching the Racing from Market Rasen, Lincs that Afternoon.(We received the Live pictures and Commentary from each Racecourse, every Afternoon). During the last Race (about 3.30, at that time), I noticed a few Snowflakes amongst the Rain, that was falling at the time.

After having our usual treat, Skate and Chips, myself and 3 colleagues went for a drink, in our local to work, in Lordship Lane, East Dulwich. The Pub door kept being blown open, by the ever strengthening and bitterly cold wind.

A little while later, during a trip to the Gents, I noticed a line of white on the floor of the loo, not to uncommon a sight in S.E. London at the time, I remember thinking to myself. On closer inspection, it turned out to be some powder Snow that had been blown through a grate in the Loo wall, and piled into a small drift.

Myself and my colleagues left the Pub around 8.30 and walked into an Easterly gale, the temperature of which literally took your breath away. Fine, powdery Snow, with the appearance of Icing Sugar, was blowing across the Roads, and was beginning to collect in the gutters, in drifts.

We headed to another Pub, around the corner in Camberwell.

We left the 2nd Pub around 10.30, by this time Snow was piling up above the edge of pavement level, quite impressive for an Inner London Borough (Southwark).

One of my colleagues offered to run me to my home in Bromley, a little over 8 Miles to the S.E.

There are a few hills between the 2 locations, and we carefully avoided them.

My colleagues car, was sliding all over the place but we finally arrived safely, at my home.

It was unrecognisable, from the place I'd left in the Morning. 

The drifting was so bad at this time (around Midnight), that I couldn't make out the path to my front door.

It was actually painful to breath in, with the combination of fine powdery Snow, and an Easterly gale.

It still remains the most potent combination of Wind, Cold and Snow I've witnessed, in my 55 Years of being interested in Meteorology.

I like to refer to the event, as a reverse Channel Low.

This particular Low found itself in the Channel, after the Jet Stream was forced further and further South, by the rise in Pressure, over Greenland.

My understanding of a Channel Low, is one that has approached from the S,W. and tries to dislodge entrenched, bitter cold, rather than being the catalyst, that introduces it.

In a short while, I will post up another example of a potent Channel Low, that caused my Father a problem.

Regards,

Tom.   

[Allezwasps.]

11.c and Snow ......

[Blazerblue]

beeb app saying heavy snow here tomorrow?????? tell me they aint lying???  Cant take any more disappointment 

Edited January 13, 2021 by Blazerblue

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

beeb app saying heavy snow here tomorrow?????? tell me they aint lying???  Cant take any more disappointment 

By which time I'll have sprouted a pair of wings!

Edited January 13, 2021 by General Cluster