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Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter


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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    Just now, Azazel said:

    I’m guessing the Dover Strait didn’t freeze over in the end and there haven’t been any reported ice bergs in the Thames?

    These were serious predictions/comments in the model thread btw.

    Agreed. Alot of people went well over board comparing it to previous REAL bfte. I said in our regionals before it that I didn't expect the totals some were progging. 

    A lesson not learned for some though.

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    Lordy, lordy, an agent provocateur

    Another day, another 2 degree rain. I lost count of them. It's an absolute joke. 20 years ago this would have been all snow.   What a waste. So frustrating after a frustrating year and on to

    Given that euphoria brought on by too much 'sniffing the coffee' has now become an art form, a quick reminder that counselling is still available, Mon-Frid, at the 'nailed on' clinic

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    It's been an extremely poor cold spell down here!

     

    No snow

    No ice days

    Minimum temp -2.3c

    Max Temp 3.6c

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    Posted
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.
    12 minutes ago, joggs said:

    Agreed. Alot of people went well over board comparing it to previous REAL bfte. I said in our regionals before it that I didn't expect the totals some were progging. 

    A lesson not learned for some though.

    Some did well,Braemar with 26 inches of level snow but yep,proggings schmoggings in general.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chipping Norton, 220mts /720ft asl
  • Location: Chipping Norton, 220mts /720ft asl
    17 minutes ago, SteveB said:

    It's been an extremely poor cold spell down here!

     

    No snow

    No ice days

    Minimum temp -2.3c

    Max Temp 3.6c

     

    Another one for me today

    image.thumb.png.20406a8721607c14ca3ebfe6980bfbcc.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Chipping Norton, 220mts /720ft asl
  • Location: Chipping Norton, 220mts /720ft asl

    Meanwhile in the model thread, people are STILL arguing about charts that are 10days+ away.

    They're ALWAYS 10days away.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    The medium to long range charts have had me a 1947 very snowy Winter, the reality - no snow, still waiting.... Crap! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
    5 hours ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:

    When it comes to the this particular corner of the world as far as mild, wet winters go then it can never be too cold, or two warm. It's never too late in the year or too early for a mild wet spell. It can never be to too strong an El Nino, a too westerly based one or too easterly.

    It can be mild and wet through a weak La Nina. Or a moderate one. Or record breakingly, WTF is going in the pacific, has god dropped the ice from his gin and tonic in there strong one.


    Disappointingly mild wind and rain can come from any direction whether the wind is northerly, easterly, southerly, northeasterly, from the basement of hell in the centre of the Earth or from outer space. 

    It can be mild and wet through a negative AO. It can be mild and wet despite a strongly negative NAO. It can be mild and wet for days after a massive SSW or weeks after. It can stay mild and wet through all phases of the MJO. It can be mild and wet throughout the entire phase of an easterly QBO, as well as a westerly.

    It can be mild and wet under a cold inversion, or a two day toppler. It can be mild and wet after a poor summer of persistent northern blocking and little ice age style washout summers. It can be mild and wet despite a warm, dry, sunny October promisingly matching patterns that just practically spell out severe winter - I mean, just look at the projected predictions matching with previous autumns with similar patterns! How can it fail!?

    It can stay mild and wet as the Spanish plains white out with snow and the beaches of Turkey freeze over with ice and the roofs collapse with the weight of the snow in the villages of Bulgaria and the children dance barefoot with delight in the unusually heavy snow in Cyprus. 

    It can be mild and wet despite Met office predictions and the JMA. It can deliver nothing but mild rain despite the promises of the the ECM, the GFS,  the Jamstec charts and the tea leaves at the bottom of granny's teacup.

    It can be mild and wet in winter despite a perfect tripole in May.

    It can stay mild and wet despite the abundance of berries on every bush and fat squirells crying into their video diary about how they love their bodies and will no longer allow themselves to be fat shamed. It will be mild and wet despite the cold september theory, the foggy autumn theory, the warm october theory.

    It can stay mild and wet while the super powers nuke themselves into oblivion at the same time as Yellowstone's caldera supervolcano explodes and releases 50 billion megatons of dust into the atmosphere plummeting the world's temperature by 10 degrees. The entire northern hemisphere could be covered in glaciers burying all the crop growing areas in ice and making the raging blizzards of frozen volcanic ash and radioactive snow over the major landmasses totally unliveable as billions die from hypothermia buried under snow drifts 60 foot high and YOU KNOW. 

    You know it don't don't you? There'll still be a little corner of the northwest Eurasian landmass, ice free, basking in mild westerlies. It will still be 13c and drizzle while the survivors dig potatoes and rye from the lukewarm earth commenting on how at least its 'mild' compared to saudi arabia right now. 

    My goodness, it’s almost as if the UK has a mild, maritime climate, where extremes are rare. Mind you, more northern parts of the UK have had their snowiest winter for quite some years (or did that escape the news, as it wasn’t London?) and tonight may see temperatures fall below -10°C, even in the south. Pretty chilly, I’d say for this climate. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
    5 hours ago, Simon M said:

     

    And there you have it, the "great British weather" in a nutshell.

    I once heard our climate described as being" Wonderfully diverse". I've since come to the conclusion that was just P. C. speak for s.... t. 

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    29 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

    The medium to long range charts have had me a 1947 very snowy Winter, the reality - no snow, still waiting.... Crap! 

    Yes the reality on the ground hasn't matched what a quick look at the charts would suggest.  15 years from now someone will browse the archives for this year and think "wow that must have been really cold and snowy", but the reality has been much less exciting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    For me this ranks as a memorable cold spell, second only this year to the the snow we had a few weeks ago.

    Of course, if I were to include other years as well, it wouldn't get a mention....  

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈

    I saw more volcanic ash deposited from Eyjafjallajökull than I have snow this winter, been very disappointing 

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    Posted
  • Location: Uckfield, Sussex
  • Location: Uckfield, Sussex

    had a few ice days down here, and plenty of hours with snow in the air. But not enough snow to do anything significant - yesterday morning we had enough on the street outside that it was white, but was all gone as soon as the sun emerged. Tried again this morning, but as with earlier in the week it just couldn't penetrate far enough inland and/or has passed either to the north or south of where I am. Radar suggests East Grinstead is probably getting a nice little flurry at the moment. North coast of Kent has seen a bit this morning, but it's dying out pretty quick as it travels south east into Sussex.

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    Thought this was meant to be North Sea convection generating these snow showers. This looked so strange and odd considering the pattern

    Untitled1.thumb.png.3d94c4f305ad6f2f6b24a7ab597cf100.png

    Take note of that area I have marked out and those pale blue precipitation areas just off the coast

    Untitled2.thumb.png.d9bf70052621f657cc26573140e7f20a.png

    Development of this band starts as it reaches the coastline

    Untitled3.thumb.png.d49224e8050315e131343f341a0717ac.png

    Look how it has really blown up as it heads inland over the much colder land, how strange. Either way I'm happy as it looks like it's on a course to drop its snow right over Scunthorpe

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    I don’t know why everyone rates the metoffice so much. They change there forecast every single day? Last week they were saying very blocked feb and March. Now it’s the complete opposite. You guys put way too much faith into these people. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Uckfield, Sussex
  • Location: Uckfield, Sussex
    3 hours ago, Audaxian said:

    had a few ice days down here, and plenty of hours with snow in the air. But not enough snow to do anything significant - yesterday morning we had enough on the street outside that it was white, but was all gone as soon as the sun emerged. Tried again this morning, but as with earlier in the week it just couldn't penetrate far enough inland and/or has passed either to the north or south of where I am. Radar suggests East Grinstead is probably getting a nice little flurry at the moment. North coast of Kent has seen a bit this morning, but it's dying out pretty quick as it travels south east into Sussex.

    Well well well. Nowcasting coming into its own at the moment IMBY. around 3 hours ago MetO was forecasting heavy snow for Uckfield from 3pm, for around an hour, before clearing. By 11am that had been revised to snow showers at 3pm, with rapid clearing. BBC at 11am showed no snow at all. Netweather suggested showers between 3pm and 4pm before clearing.

    Right now, 1:30pm and it's been snowing lightly for nearly a half hour now, and the Netweather radar is suggesting we're going to get hit by the southern edge of a heavier band that's crossing the Kent coast near Canterbury and running south westerly towards where I am. Looks like it might just sink far enough south to generate a decent fall here.

    Edited by Audaxian
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    Posted
  • Location: South London
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, hot weather, dry, mild, gale force winds
  • Location: South London
    32 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    I don’t know why everyone rates the metoffice so much. They change there forecast every single day? Last week they were saying very blocked feb and March. Now it’s the complete opposite. You guys put way too much faith into these people. 

    Slightly harsh... These conditions are pretty difficult to predict with any uncertainty and it's a bit like walking a tightrope, balancing all the conditions. The issue comes with people who are being inflexible and get very excited about one prospect, without acknowledging how tentative the conditions can be. It was always a possibility that milder conditions would return sooner rather than later. They are the professionals after all and the changing forecast is welcome in my perspective - rather they change them to reflect the actual new data input in rather than stubbornly hold on to a forecast less likely to pan out but which makes more people happier. 

    Just my two cents. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castlefield, Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Whiteouts
  • Location: Castlefield, Manchester
    57 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    I don’t know why everyone rates the metoffice so much. They change there forecast every single day? Last week they were saying very blocked feb and March. Now it’s the complete opposite. You guys put way too much faith into these people. 

    Complete reversals are rare, it's more continuous refinement based on the evidence available, which itself is constantly evolving in the chaotic system that is weather. That's good science.

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    Posted
  • Location: South London
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, hot weather, dry, mild, gale force winds
  • Location: South London
    5 minutes ago, MancRM95 said:

    Complete reversals are rare, it's more continuous refinement based on the evidence available, which itself is constantly evolving in the chaotic system that is weather. That's good science.

    Very well put

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Leeds Bradford Airport
  • Weather Preferences: Warm & Sunny in Summer, Cold & Frosty in Winter, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Near Leeds Bradford Airport

    Looking forward to spring warmth now

    Edited by Summer18
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    Posted
  • Location: Cold Rain City, Essex
  • Location: Cold Rain City, Essex
    7 hours ago, Azazel said:

    I’m guessing the Dover Strait didn’t freeze over in the end and there haven’t been any reported ice bergs in the Thames?

    These were serious predictions/comments in the model thread btw.

    The beast is a lot tamer these days. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Hexham 140m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, dry in summer.
  • Location: Home: Hexham 140m asl
    31 minutes ago, Summer18 said:

    Looking forward to spring warmth now

    Narnia here until at least Sunday

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl

    It looks as though this cold spell has been predictably naff in this part of the country - not even the best cold spell of the winter imby - the temps are probably a little bit lower than they got during the far snowier spell between the 27th December and the middle of January, an Easterly reliant on convective snow is just a poor option for our area, I posted a picture early today showing the issue in our regional thread with the Yorkshire Dales to our North East and the Pennines to our South East there's only a narrow band of space for any Easterly convection to make it through, sadly and it hasn't found the gap. We got a light covering of snow that may have measured about half a centimetre a few days back, otherwise dustings and infrequent showers. 

     

    Other snow events this winter have given us 10cm of snow for comparison. It looks increasingly likely the best hope these parts is going to be any form of snowy breakdown with a front from the west but that seems less and less likely with each model run. It seems outside of the extreme north and eastern areas of Scotland and a narrow band of the South East coast this has largely been a pretty poor snow event - whilst the images from Scotland and parts of the East Coast of the country are captivating that's a relatively small area of the country.

     

    I certainly will be taken model hyping with a lot less seriousness in future, when supposed boom charts lead to this drab of an event. Thankfully we in the North West knew the score before the event started having seen enough lame Easterlies like this one and the 2018 "Beast" that delivered sod all. Until we get a full on Atlantic Front moving in from the west coast into cold air it seems unlikely we'll get any notable snowfall in this part of the world. 

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