Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

[Eastbourneguy]

I love watching people from the midlands complain about non event dry easterlies when 

1) It hasn't happened yet

2) It's an easterly,  obviously the further inland you go, negates your chances of showers

3) You're literally in the prime locations for frontal snow when the Atlantic comes back. 

4) It's really irritating. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Eastbourneguy

[tommyboy]

So here's a question JH.....living in the South East (Kent), at what point can I expect to rely on a forecast? Basically can it ever be certain , or is it just a case of only believing what I see out of the window!!

[Hurricane Alley]

Seems to be downgrading now. Think the peak was the models a few days back. Amazing how it has changed. We can hope for upgrades but once the models start downgrading then usually that’s the way it goes. Unfortunately not the first time it’s happened.

[somersetwolf]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Gem starting to show powerful streamers setting up on Sunday and Monday now.

This is a good sign on a global model that far out.

Please could I see chart?

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, somersetwolf said:

Please could I see chart?

Sure, here you go.

 

[SnowLover87]

Turning into a damp raw event before Atlantic hits back.  Easterlies hardly materialise in UK.

[Don]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Anyone want to bet that this east Europe block is more west and north come nearer the time?

 

I would hope so but knowing our luck probably not!

[Anti-Mild]

2 minutes ago, Hurricane Alley said:

Seems to be downgrading now. Think the peak was the models a few days back. Amazing how it has changed. We can hope for upgrades but once the models start downgrading then usually that’s the way it goes. Unfortunately not the first time it’s happened.

Not sure I agree. What's about to happen from late Saturday through to Wednesday hasn't changed a great deal from 2 days ago, and as has been repeated ad nauseum on here, once the cold is in place it's a bugger to shift, so all the models will more than likely be overly progressive.

Let's just enjoy the next few days, and we'll see what's to come by early next week.

[Duncan McAlister]

Ooh Met Office has snow for Ayr for three consecutive time periods on Monday!

[throwoff]

17 minutes ago, tommyboy said:

So here's a question JH.....living in the South East (Kent), at what point can I expect to rely on a forecast? Basically can it ever be certain , or is it just a case of only believing what I see out of the window!!

You can’t rely on any forecast but Kent is looking great at the moment

[P-M]

2 minutes ago, SnowLover87 said:

Turning into a damp raw event before Atlantic hits back.  Easterlies hardly materialise in UK.

All depends where you live. The latest runs suggest a decent spell for Eastern areas. 

Although to be taken purely as a guide at this stage the GFS for example has streamers and showers piling in from the North Sea from tomorrow afternoon/evening.  I think a lot of people will be happy. 

Things could change but as people have said,  let's allow the "cold" spell to start first. 

[throwoff]

This forum always goes a bit mad when we get an event that heavily affects some of the country and does nothing elsewhere.

All models now agree the East and the South east are on for some decent snow Sunday onwards. 

METO are confident now and warnings are being boosted. 
 

If you’re out of the firing line perhaps a few days away from the models will be a good idea!

[CentralSouthernSnow]

56 minutes ago, throwoff said:

This forum always goes a bit mad when we get an event that heavily affects some of the country and does nothing elsewhere.

All models now agree the East and the South east are on for some decent snow Sunday onwards. 

METO are confident now and warnings are being boosted. 
 

If you’re out of the firing line perhaps a few days away from the models will be a good idea!

Can you really blame people being disheartened? The over hyping from people and even “pros” is appalling. I thought 10D fantasy land was bad but even events a few days out people over hype it and everyone gets sucked in. We need to be a bit more realistic. 

[throwoff]

17 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Can you really blame people being disheartened? The over hyping from people and even “pros” is appalling. I thought 10D fantasy land was bad but even events a few days out people over hype it and everyone gets sucked in. We need to be a bit more realistic. 

I can’t blame people for being downhearted but at the same time people like me in Kent are buzzing right now!

[CentralSouthernSnow]

Just now, throwoff said:

I can’t blame people for being downhearted but at the same time people like me in Kent are buzzing right now!

Yeah To be honest I get you’re buzzing but if south west was in firing line and south east wasn’t you’d feel annoyed. It’s only normal 

[Gadje]

31 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

 It’s only normal 

Check out the Scottish regionals. Banter aside the whole community are happy for those that see snow, including some that see little if any. They joke about it, not whine about it. I've had three days of constant rain further north they have blizzards. Good on them.

[Bristawl Si]

1 hour ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Can you really blame people being disheartened? The over hyping from people and even “pros” is appalling. I thought 10D fantasy land was bad but even events a few days out people over hype it and everyone gets sucked in. We need to be a bit more realistic. 

Exactly. Boring dry and cold over here, it seems. Maybe the pleasant warmth from S Europe will find its way here by next weekend.

[Timmytour]

1987 was an epic spell as can be seen from this....but my memory of it here in Herts is one of being disappointed at getting only two inches at best while those to the east and to the south got an absolute dumping!

Got a feeling, though I don't foresee anything as epic as this was for next week, that many are going to experience that same sense of disappointment.... 

 

 

[snowblizzard]

25 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

1987 was an epic spell as can be seen from this....but my memory of it here in Herts is one of being disappointed at getting only two inches at best while those to the east and to the south got an absolute dumping!

Got a feeling, though I don't foresee anything as epic as this was for next week, that many are going to experience that same sense of disappointment.... 

 

 

12th January 1987 saw the -20c 850hpa line very close to Kent coastline.

We had 20 inches of powder snow in Westerham Kent

So, absolutely no comparison next week!

I'm rather disappointed having just watched SE News Weather.

It looks a bit marginal with rain/snow mix mentioned in the forecast for Sunday night!

Also, only 1-3 cm expected for my area NW Kent (not in amber warning area)

I think we are too close to the less cold uppers until later on Monday morning. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by snowblizzard

[Updated_Weather]

If overnight runs are the same or upgrade on snow potential I expect to be in the amber warning as only 5 miles out side of it and maybe a red warning issued somewhere.. 

the warning will be updated tomorrow

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Vadoseflame said:

If overnight runs are the same or upgrade on snow potential I expect to be in the amber warning as only 5 miles out side of it and maybe a red warning issued somewhere.. 

the warning will be updated tomorrow

Where in Essex are you?

[Updated_Weather]

41 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Where in Essex are you?

I’m in Braintree.

[Sky Full]

2 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Exactly. Boring dry and cold over here, it seems. Maybe the pleasant warmth from S Europe will find its way here by next weekend.

Yay!  Bring it on!  Winter’s over in three weeks and two days anyway......  plus, we always get more snow in March than any other month!  

[Nath]

Can I get the holy grail for NW london, snow cover that completely covers the grass.  Not seen it in years.

Cant complain, last weeks snow was better than the 5 preceding years, even if it only lasted 12 hours before becoming a slush puppy   

[CentralSouthernSnow]

Can someone tell me which model is better? Gfs or icon? Because aspege and Icon have the channel low inland and gfs and ecm have it just off the south coast on Tuesday.. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by CentralSouthernSnow