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Lordy, lordy, an agent provocateur

Another day, another 2 degree rain. I lost count of them. It's an absolute joke. 20 years ago this would have been all snow.   What a waste. So frustrating after a frustrating year and on to

Given that euphoria brought on by too much 'sniffing the coffee' has now become an art form, a quick reminder that counselling is still available, Mon-Frid, at the 'nailed on' clinic

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
    2 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

    Haha, just like Brexit (and we all know how that’s turning out). Trouble is, people fall for the hype every year and then it all turns nasty when things don’t materialise as hoped.

    Of course, we mustn't mention the B word, but if we were to, you'd be correct!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    2 hours ago, swfc said:

    A lot of folk on these threads don't seem to grasp the concept of land mass. The USA and Eastern Europe have extremes of all weather types as standard. The UK surrounded by water obv is more temperate. The recent cold has for some areas given a good few snowfalls even with moderate temps in a slack air flow. The outlook is uncertain for the UK but the SSW and wind Reversal will certainly stir things up 

    And some also struggle with the idea that an airmass never fully loses the imprint of its starting conditions, or where it originated...?

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  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl

    Ah well, we'll save on heating Bill's. On to the third warming in Feb............

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    So, another wretched January incoming by the looks of things then? IMBY anyway - I'm aware that some people have had a centimetre or 2 of snow here and there so a very low bar has been set. Familiar story of winters past - if there is any good stuff being forecast, at all, it is usually at 10, 15, 20 days for any sort of proper winter weather

    I'm currently looking out at a RAINY, showery early January Easterly (let that sink in) and an SSW that is currently progged to leave the Azores High parked near us, promising to eat days and days out of the heart of winter, giving us benign nothingness (which, I know, some people like)

    Being in the UK (and probably other parts of the world too), this snow-seeking lark is becoming a bit unenjoyable and exhausting. It's like following a football team that never wins but you can't help but root for it and be invested in it despite the constant disappointment!!

    Sorry for the rant

    Still, never mind it's the new year and it could be worse. We could be in another lockdo...

    Oh

    Edited by LRD
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  • Location: Braintree essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything exciting.
  • Location: Braintree essex

    This country is so infuriating when it comes to getting snowy weather it don’t help when models so far out predict it but never comes why bother predicting 10 or more days out when most of the time it’s only correct 1 to 5 days out if your lucky ,sometimes I wish I lived up north the sloppy south is so drab no excitement rant over hope I feel better later. Now being in lock down it would be so nice just to look out of the window and watch it fall from the sky and pile up.

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  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
    18 minutes ago, SSW said:

    Hello long time lurker here. I won't interrupt your chat too much, just to tell you that the whole of this previous week I've been staring at every single chart looking for this feature coming from the South South West. "maybe this feature comes from the NNE" I thought to myself. I need to do a bit more homework...

    Welcome to the forum SSW. As you can see I've moved your first post over here to the Chat thread where it's better suited. If you get a mo could you pop your location into your profile so we can see where you are when you post about the weather. 👍🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Right I've had enough. It's January. We've had an easterly for three days. And it's started to rain. It's a real kick in the teeth. The beard's gone.

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  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Right I've had enough. It's January. We've had an easterly for three days. And it's started to rain. It's a real kick in the teeth. The beard's gone.

    I feel your pain. I've had a Northerly and/or Easterly for the past two weeks and only had one 20 minute snowfall that melted just as quick.

    Global warming? I think so.

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  • Location: Louth, Lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, thunderstorms and sunny summer days.
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
    4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    I feel your pain. I've had a Northerly and/or Easterly for the past two weeks and only had one 20 minute snowfall that melted just as quick.

    Global warming? I think so.

    Global warming is definitely playing a part now in these wishy washy cold spells. We’re surrounded by an ever warming sea and becoming further and further away from polar ice sheets and cold sources because they are shrinking every year. I believe the Met Office recently predicted that nearly all lowland locations in the UK will be completely snowless in 40 years time with only the very highest locations seeing anything vaguely white. It’s sad really but I guess it will stop a lot of people on the MOD thread desperately looking for cold charts that aren’t there. 

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    I feel your pain. I've had a Northerly and/or Easterly for the past two weeks and only had one 20 minute snowfall that melted just as quick.

    Global warming? I think so.

    Global warming...... naa that's just lazy and ignores the actual synoptics 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    Global warming...... naa that's just lazy and ignores the actual synoptics 

    And denial is just as lazy, as it ignores the facts... But, can we blame one individual failed easterly on GW? I don't think we can... though my stance is getting rather less tenable, with time...?🤔

    Edie: I don't mean to imply that you yourself are in denial, FG... But I do acknowledge how it might've come across. Apologies!👍

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    Just now, General Cluster said:

    And denial is just as lazy, as it ignores the facts... But, can we blame one individual failed easterly on GW? I don't think we can... though my stance is getting rather less tenable, with time...?🤔

    Who's denying it?

    Large block to the east with warm air dragged into central Europe for most of winter, 2-3 day easterly with marginal uppers and low lever air from central Europe means a marginal situation. No mater when that setup happens the result will be the same.

    Had Europe been freezing then we would have had more snow with lower DP's
    Had air originated from the artic after boxing day then the weather would have been colder and we would have had more snow.

    The only ingredient we have missed is some real artic air, and even without that we have had a long run of below average temperatures and snow.

     

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  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent

    GFS 6z OP at 168h is now full on +AO/+NAO.   I think this SSW is upside down !  

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  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    2 minutes ago, Shunter said:

    GFS 6z OP at 168h is now full on +AO/+NAO.   I think this SSW is upside down !  

    SSW has shuffled the deck and its removed a promising situation that just need an injection of cold air into a situation where we need to remove blocking over the Spain and get it to higher latitudes. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    23 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    Global warming...... naa that's just lazy and ignores the actual synoptics 

    Well, not really, the synoptics look great with an abundance of blocking to our North, the issue was the lack of cold at air mass source. You only have to look at the above average temperatures to our North and of course global warming is the cause.

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  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    12 minutes ago, Shunter said:

    GFS 6z OP at 168h is now full on +AO/+NAO.   I think this SSW is upside down !  

    What about 240h?

    The SSW normally takes a couple of weeks to downwell

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

    Well, not really, the synoptics look great with an abundance of blocking to our North, the issue was the lack of cold at air mass source. You only have to look at the above average temperatures to our North and of course global warming is the cause.

    The air hasn't bee sourced form the north thou.... if the artic is only 20 below when it should be 40 below makes no difference if the air is not sourced from the artic, and no a system travelling across the south of Greenland does not count.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    The air hasn't bee sourced form the north thou.... if the artic is only 20 below when it should be 40 below makes no difference if the air is not sourced from the artic, and no a system travelling across the south of Greenland does not count.

     

    It's Arctic, not artic.

    And the air has most certainly for the most part started life up there.

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    Just now, mountain shadow said:

    It's Arctic, not artic.

    And the air has most certainly for the most part started life up there.

    Show me becasue it really hasn't.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    13 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    The air hasn't bee sourced form the north thou.... if the artic is only 20 below when it should be 40 below makes no difference if the air is not sourced from the artic, and no a system travelling across the south of Greenland does not count.

     

    Indeed... As the MetO's forecasters have repeatedly pointed out, the airmass we've endured, these past few days, originated in the eastern Mediterranean...

    This sort of thing would be a truly an Arctic airmass: h500slp.png h850t850eu.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
    23 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Day 10 and things starting to look more interesting with the jet meandering , I have a feeling we are getting close to some great charts as the SSW comes into effect - definitely don’t be too downbeat just yet.

    E4A2D6D9-F95E-49F6-A2DB-698EA0C9279F.png

    D230CF0D-4689-47B1-9220-C372A1E6F527.png

    In 2019 I read posts like this for 2 months and nothing happened. No impact from SSW on the trop to favour us. I hope like everyone we do see some juicy charts but I’m not getting sucked into a 2 month chase. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent

    Brilliant Torvill & Dean programme on ITV last week highlighted warmer temperatures being experienced in Alaska during the past few winters. 

    Thinner ice on lakes and slushy snow conditions.

    I'm not sure what stage of winter it was filmed but they are definitely thinking that global warming is having an effect!

    So, what chance have we got in UK?

    Edited by snowblizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
    2 hours ago, Hammer50 said:

    This country is so infuriating when it comes to getting snowy weather it don’t help when models so far out predict it but never comes why bother predicting 10 or more days out when most of the time it’s only correct 1 to 5 days out if your lucky ,sometimes I wish I lived up north the sloppy south is so drab no excitement rant over hope I feel better later. Now being in lock down it would be so nice just to look out of the window and watch it fall from the sky and pile up.

    I was hoping, in my life time to experience a 1947 or 62/63 type of winter, but alas am begining to feel this may never happen! 😔 2010 showed that severe winter spells can still happen in this country. I for one absolutely loved it as it is my favorite type of weather. But, it definitely does appear to be getting harder and harder to get anything remotely wintery, especially for those residing down south in the UK.

    The synoptics this year have been some of the most amazing I have read in the Mod thread, not that I really understand them, but I do enjoy lurking and reading what experts like Chio, Catacol and many others say. It did seem, for once, like everything was falling into place, or at least that's what the models would have us believe! When experts start to write winters off, then I'll give in, but until then I'll keep persevering, no matter how frustrating it can be.

    For whats it worth, I think in a world of extremes at some point we'll get an extreme winter, it is just a matter of time. We still have a good chunk of this winter left, so a long and brutal spell of winter is still quite feasible. We are long over due a very cold February, perhaps this could be our year, we'll see...  

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