Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

[Bradley in Kent]

13 hours ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

All the Mildies are coming out the woodwork today 

 

Tbh that's a pretty tidy set up if you like that kind of thing, would certainly be pleasant out and about. 

Probably not on the current topic but responding from yesterday:

I'd say I'm a mildie unless it's actually proper cold. I can't be doing with temps in the 2c - 10c range.

 In winter I'm an 'all or nothing' man, I enjoyed December 2010 and 2015 equally but for entirely different reasons

Another way of putting it is that I don't like Westerly, Northwesterly or Northerly winds!

[Flake news]

50 minutes ago, MagicOtter said:

Chuff all for Cornwall, as per usual. The cold here seems to be forecast to last about 3 days max also (Sunday to Tuesday). If anyone can cheer me up, please feel free.

In a couple of weeks time the sun will begin to shine, the birds sing and the flowers bloom for you before the rest of us.  Winter will become a distant memory and you'll wonder why the hell you ever wanted cold and wet slushy snow in the first place.

[AWD]

All this talk of 6 inches here and 8 inches there, is making me feel rather giddy!!!

Edited February 4, 2021 by AWD

[Spah1]

9 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Could a chart ever express to snow mad folk on here how much West Lancashire folk hate Easterlies. 

Its born out of pure Jealousy. 

Good Luck to all. 

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, AWD said:

All this talk of 6 inches here and 8 inches there, is making me feel rather giddy!!!

Makes me feel inadequate. Just because it shows less for me. Not because of anything else  

[sheikhy]

East mids and east anglia get a pounding on sunday!!!thats before the thundersnow from the north sea aswell!!i wonder if that band of snow heads further north and west after 90 hours?!!

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Could a chart ever express to snow mad folk on here how much West Lancashire folk hate Easterlies. 

Its born out of pure Jealousy. 

Good Luck to all. 

See -  i wont get anything sig here either, but because every other setup doesn't deliver either, i would still prefer an Easterly, because you have a chance of breakdown snow, although even then if you look at recent runs showing that, i still only get about 7cm, because it just forms a barrier round here, but i would rather take my chance that the odd streamer gets across - eg - the chart from the ECM Nick Finnis put up and end up with 1-2 inches that doesnt melt straight away like marginals do in big cities, you just have to be realistic, it was sods law when the virus forced me out of the pennines that this winter was going to blocked and cold and i would end up with not a lot, but what makes me think i am going to end up getting a proper tonking when the max snowfall here has been 1x6 inch fall and 1x5 inch fall in 40 years.

[MJB]

1 minute ago, ITSY said:

Goodness me I hope this is right. I'm like a child with giddy excitement looking at that chart! With the GFS, GFSP and UKMO all going for variations on a theme, this is almost too good to believe for my own backyard. Plenty of interest for all in the entire eastern half of the country though with an outcome like that...


 

Have to say that is a mile away from the chart SKL has just shown on the BEEB , quite a disappointment if I am honest 

[Froze were the Days]

32 minutes ago, AWD said:

All this talk of 6 inches here and 8 inches there, is making me feel rather giddy!!!

Sarah Keith-Lucas at 1.30pm on the BBC news forecast will make you feel less giddy 'could get several cm's'

[ITSY]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

Have to say that is a mile away from the chart SKL has just shown on the BEEB , quite a disappointment if I am honest 

We're venturing into different threads but that's because she used the 00z ECMWF, which the BBC almost always use. It's a delayed loop. Come 17.00 tonight it might reflect an updated run such as the the ECMWF 06z (which isn't publicly available in full) but which produced the run discussed above. It is much more in line with GFS, GFSP, GEM and others (though that doesn't make it a guarantee, as I've pointed out on here a lot)! Toes crossed....

Edited February 4, 2021 by ITSY

[MJB]

11 minutes ago, ITSY said:

We're venturing into different threads but that's because she used the 00z ECMWF, which the BBC almost always use. It's a delayed loop. Come 17.00 tonight it might reflect an updated run such as the the ECMWF 06z (which isn't publicly available in full) but which produced the run discussed above. It is much more in line with GFS, GFSP, GEM and others (though that doesn't make it a guarantee, as I've pointed out on here a lot)! Toes crossed....

But the ECM 00z was a snowfest , so what model was she going off ?? Most Bizarre 

[MJB]

13 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Sarah Keith-Lucas at 1.30pm on the BBC news forecast will make you feel less giddy 'could get several cm's'

Which doesn't tie in with the latest warnings 

Work that out 

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, MJB said:

But the ECM 00z was a snowfest , so what model was she going off ?? Most Bizarre 

Third time I've posted this (lol sorry everyone!), but here you go:

Exactly the same, except the BBC's forecast is just more rounded and smoothed to remove the jutting of the raw output.

The BBC always uses the raw output of the ECM, at least past 48hrs. 

Note, that above chart is 15z, obviously there is more snow around earlier in the morning.

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[MJB]

8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Third time I've posted this (lol sorry everyone!), but here you go:

Exactly the same, except the BBC's forecast is just more rounded and smoothed to remove the jutting of the raw output.

The BBC always uses the raw output of the ECM, at least past 48hrs. 

Note, that above chart is 15z, obviously there is more snow around earlier in the morning.

 

If MBY gets nothing I would be amazed , strength of the wind surely would push snow through . Have to say I was very surprised and needless to say disappointed 

Edited February 4, 2021 by MJB

[Bansobaby]

Afternoon all. Exciting times ahead, I’ve certainly spent more time reading this thread than reading anything else for the last couple of days.

The models in general seem to not yet be in any sort of agreement as to a when or quite how this cold period may come to an end. 

When the thaw of however much lying snow there is (which is certainly very much up in the air at the moment, in more ways than one), I just hope it’s a slow thaw. Otherwise we could be building snowmen one day and arks the next. I remember from childhood in the 80’s some of the worst floods being a result of snow melt.

Also, snow, which as others have pointed out would disrupt vaccination efforts, would otherwise have nowhere near as much damaging effects on people’s lives as catastrophic flooding......

What do you all think as to the character of the eventual warm up? I guess that if an Atlantic low smashes the block, it could mean temperatures well into high single figures in literally a couple of hours, but if the cold resists, in could be around zero for a while, allowing for a slow melt.....

[The Real Snowman]

42 minutes ago, AmatuerMet1963 said:

Finally both ECM and GFS seem to be on same page as todays longer range forecast from Susan Powell from the BBC earlier today. Both models have been very far apart recently but todays Windys shows not a lot of difference for Saturday this week.  I recently noticed a good comment from an animal lover and bird enthusiast about noting nature pointers, which mainly are actually more  certain than computers. This morning at 8am, I saw what looked like a scene out of "The Day After Tomorrow"  , many flocks or skeins of birds were filling the sky at around 1000 feet.    That's unusual for this time of year.   I dont have to tell you what heading they were on do I.???...yep WEST out to the coasts of Blackpool or Liverpool or even Ireland. Where the freeze will be tempered some what by the mini climate that surrounds North West Britain. The small birds remain to be feeding heavily in our gardens, and will totally rely on us to keep them alive through this 10 day freeze. see more about saving your garden birds at the RSPB site!!!

So here are the two maps from ECM and GFS for one day this weekend.  Theres also a huge low pressure system 952mb with very tight icobars off the Atlantic.  GFS has it sinking south, while ECM has it steady increasing the chance of blizzards almost anywhere as mean winds are associated with is up to 27mph.... I will still need to see it in Lancashire to believe snow will fall,  But Im more hopeful than a few days ago, But honestly this will possible cripple the covid vaccine turnout, if towns and citys get heavy snow, along with stranded vehicles and other problems. Spare a thought for Amanda Owen and Clive at the Yorkshire farm afar at Ravenseat, where most of my relations live not far on the high town called "Richmond", off scotch corner,M1 A1. they have already sent snaps to us off vast mounts of snow over 7-8 days already.

Below, both models are agreeing to wintry weather by  Saturday the 6th February.  BBC weather seems to be following more or less the ECMS tracking.  To my mind the GFS seems to make a poor job of creating a coherent forecast.. that flies in opposition of other mainstream sources. stay safe and get your sledge bought before they all sell out!!!

Near Richmond is where I am. Had double figure snow days here with more to come by the looks of it. Sorry Mods - But this inbound weather looks very interesting indeed and I anticipate more to come for large swathes of the Country.

[knocker]

Might be of interest, or indeed it might not

Snow Maps, Algorithms, and Winter Precipitation

https://home.pivotalweather.com/guides/snowfall

[kold weather]

16 minutes ago, MJB said:

If MBY gets nothing I would be amazed , strength of the wind surely would push snow through . Have to say I was very surprised and needless to say disappointed 

That beeb forecast also shows that timing make a difference.

So for example, if the Beeb decided to show the 6am image (which the ECM has snow over the SE/EA in totality) then that would send a very different message and closely match the Met office forecast.

But of course, people aren't out as much at 6am, so best to shot a timesnap during the middle of the day near max temperatures, hence why they are showing the period between 2-4pm (3pm was the closest match). This sends a very conflicting message against the warnings and for our community here.

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[Froze were the Days]

So that ridiculous snowfall amount anomalies in the other ecm chart which has been regularly posted (which shows 40cms in parts of Suffolk/Norfolk) that was just one of the ensembles showing the most?

Edited February 4, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

So that ridiculous snowfall amount anomalies in the other ecm chart which has been regularly posted (which shows 40cms in parts of Suffolk/Norfolk) that was just one of the ensembles showing the most?

I believe the one you were talking about was the 06 ECM operational.

So not an ensemble member, but the 06z run of the ECM operational, which runs out to 90hrs, so we can't see how much further out it goes.

Totals are probably a little on the high side though due to the ratios probably being a little high, especially closer to the coast. Still a strong signal for a decent fall.

[winterfreak]

1 hour ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

Can you imagine what it was like with 21 inches in '87.

Yes. We had 30 inches level snow up on the Downs near BrandsHatch

 

it was epic 

[Loopyloz]

I really hope the West Midlands sees some of this snow but the more I read the more I'm getting jealous of you southerners! I've missed out on most of the heavy snow this year. But really enjoying reading the posts and learning at the same time 

[AmatuerMet1963]

14 minutes ago, The Real Snowman said:

Near Richmond is where I am. Had double figure snow days here with more to come by the looks of it. Sorry Mods - But this inbound weather looks very interesting indeed and I anticipate more to come for large swathes of the Country.

Hi in my younger days, I used to go with the wife to Richmond for Christmas every other year.   We always seemed to be there, when on the boxing day or just after we wake up to white outs. and with glee, after consulting the AA I asked about going home via Scotch corner, and they simply said don't think about it    for next 24 hours. so we had an extra day there, and took photos down one hill to a managed forest area with snow capped gate, it looked gorgeous, so When I went home, I painted the scene, and sold it to a workmate. However Richmond plus Barnard castle is very hilly, with almost vertical roads from houses.  Quite an art using a car top of  these areas. Love Swaledale and hope to visit Ravenseat in summer hopefully when covid relaxes?? Keep safe up there, couple of snow chains may be useful. WE all had them in our boots during the sixties and seventies, plus blankets for tyre grip!!

[Youcan'tbecirrus]

8 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Yes. We had 30 inches level snow up on the Downs near BrandsHatch

 

it was epic 

Fantastic. Wasn't it great. Lasted about a month from what I recall. I don't know if/where you can post photos but I have a great one from that spell.   

[MJB]

16 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Yes. We had 30 inches level snow up on the Downs near BrandsHatch

 

it was epic 

We did well in that also Steve , you are in a great position this time for another dump .............of snow 

Edited February 4, 2021 by MJB