Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

[A Frayed Knot]

19 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

I wasn't alive during this time but wow to experience something like that sounds incredible.

March 2013 is the only time I've seen full on drifting snow, to experience anything like that again would be amazing. 

Yet here I am would happily settle for 5cm at this in time 

He said a foot of Snow... I seen drifts of around 14 or more in Wales especially 1978. You know when you get a good covering as you cannot see the curb or grass. 

[A Frayed Knot]

Just now, A Frayed Knot said:

He said a foot of Snow... I seen drifts of around 14 or more in Wales especially 1978. You know when you get a good covering as you cannot see the curb or grass. 

Or even your car... Lol 

[DJ Fart]

Just now, A Frayed Knot said:

He said a foot of Snow... I seen drifts of around 14 or more in Wales especially 1978. You know when you get a good covering as you cannot see the curb or grass. 

For me, that's the benchmark. When you can't see where the path stops and the road starts. 

I was 12 in 1991 and remember it well. Can we get a repeat? 

[stainesbloke]

5 hours ago, Snowman. said:

I wasn't alive during this time but wow to experience something like that sounds incredible.

March 2013 is the only time I've seen full on drifting snow, to experience anything like that again would be amazing. 

Yet here I am would happily settle for 5cm at this in time 

The February 1991 spell was a classic, and I remember that forecast by Francis Wilson. I was 17 and in sixth form. I was doing my daily morning paper round on my bike and it was ridiculously cold that morning, around -10°C! I remember getting an old double decker bus to college and condensation had frozen on the inside of the bus upstairs, so that when the bus went over a bump, it actually started ‘snowing’ briefly inside lol. A foretaste of what was to transpire during that day, with a near white-out blizzard and us all getting sent home at lunchtime. It didn’t get above -5°C all day, so proper snow, no slush to be seen anywhere. Then further small top ups for a week, with bitterly cold conditions, before a sudden and rapid thaw overnight and back into mild, wet weather.

[Roger J Smith]

Thinking of putting this up on wikipedia (on 1st of April perhaps) ...

FANTASY ISLANDS _ climate

As noted, Fantasy Islands are on the alternate earth and generally resemble Britain and Ireland in geographical terms. However, their climate is considerably different. Harsh winter storms and long summer heat waves often hit Fantasy Islands and last for many days. Huge snowstorms sweep in on a regular basis in the colder months, which are September to May. The remnants of hurricanes often produce "dartboard lows" that result in such harsh conditions that only stunted trees can survive the constant onslaught of Atlantic fury. 

This explains why almost nobody lives on the Fantasy Islands, in contrast to the heavy population density that is found on the analogous real U.K. and Ireland. Those few hardy souls who have voyaged from the glacial domains of Europe to the Fantasy Islands have found that life cannot be sustained in these bleak, subarctic conditions. 

Archaeologists think that people were living in the Fantasy Islands near the end of the last glacial period which has only relented its grip very slightly in recent centuries and made a full return as recently as 2013. 

[Azazel]

So i dont follow the model thread closely but I saw the beast from the east was arriving saturday earlier in the week - now its wednesday next week? Is that right? I'm guessing by the weekend it will have been pushed back to the following weekend?

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

So i dont follow the model thread closely but I saw the beast from the east was arriving saturday earlier in the week - now its wednesday next week? Is that right? I'm guessing by the weekend it will have been pushed back to the following weekend?

hopefully not. otherwise it will turn up in May.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

So i dont follow the model thread closely but I saw the beast from the east was arriving saturday earlier in the week - now its wednesday next week? Is that right? I'm guessing by the weekend it will have been pushed back to the following weekend?

Sunday it's arriving on todays models, according to M Hugo though it's not a beast? to me it is, as it's not a useless 3-6 Jan 2021 mediterranean wet fart

[Paul]

3 minutes ago, Azazel said:

So i dont follow the model thread closely but I saw the beast from the east was arriving saturday earlier in the week - now its wednesday next week? Is that right? I'm guessing by the weekend it will have been pushed back to the following weekend?

Not at all - the cold will be moving south this weekend. 

[Arrows1986]

Funny how the beeb are so much on the fence. Its Wednesday and they're only going as far out as Friday. Seems as if they don't want to commit to showing weekend graphs lol cant blame them though.  I think tomorrow will be the day of warnings etc

[Notty]

Just now, Arrows1986 said:

Funny how the beeb are so much on the fence. Its Wednesday and they're only going as far out as Friday. Seems as if they don't want to commit to showing weekend graphs lol cant blame them though.  I think tomorrow will be the day of warnings etc

I imagine the METO will issue warnings for Sunday later today based on all the available model output

[Candice Bartley]

2 hours ago, Kreftysoton said:

Loving the positivity this morning, most seem bullish about the cold spell. Can someone tell me why both BBC and Met have downgraded cold already for my part of the world? (Soton)  Sat - Mon was 3c max now showing 6s and nxt week up to 9/10?  Do they use different models than the ones discussed on here? 

Some warnings have appeared now

[NewEra21]

5 minutes ago, Candice Bartley said:

Some warnings have appeared now

It's happening boys and girls, it's actually happening!!!

[Weathizard]

And the far south looks like missing out again, yawn. So many false dawns this winter.

At least our vaccine supply will be unhindered I suppose.

[Martz86]

31 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

It's happening boys and girls, it's actually happening!!!

I just noticed the weather warnings and I've never seen them that in advance before, especially for snow, which usually only appear 1 day before! Excitings period coming up.

[SqueakheartLW]

The colder winters tend to come in blocks of 2 or 3 years. Usually one of the winters is decent or cold throughout, maybe even severe cold, the others less so or more in a month during the winter

Examples

1961/62 and 1962/63

1962/63 was the severe one, 1961,62 probably more the teaser winter for what was to come

1984/85, 1985/86 and 1986/87

1984/85 probably the coldest one overall for the whole winter. 1985/86 generally back loaded and 1986/87 had that severe cold spell in January 1987

1995/96 and 1996/97

1995/96 was the one that was cold throughout. 1996/97 really the leftovers from the previous winter

2008/09, 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2012/13

2008/09 was really the teaser winter for what was going to happen in 2009/10 which was the cold winter of the trio. 2010/11 was severe cold at first before a milder pattern took over from then on with the exception of 2012/13 which seems to be an odd winter out in the series

2020/21, 2021/22?

This winter appears to be headed in the direction of colder than average and if previous form is to continue it could be the start of another block of colder winters. Maybe with the near misses we have had so much then this winter could be the teaser winter for 2021/22 so maybe we can look forward to a very cold winter next time around

[Ali1977]

16 minutes ago, Buzz said:

It's 8 days away, model output is highly variable the further away the output is; it possibly won't happen that way, if at all. Don't pay too much attention to the output more than 5 days ahead in this kind of setup, just take it on board and file it away as a possibility.

Latest BBC monthly says cold easterlies Russian Airmass staying through Mid Feb. Get the cold in first, and if often is hard to get rid of - #slidersville!! 

[Paul_1978]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Latest BBC monthly says cold easterlies Russian Airmass staying through Mid Feb. Get the cold in first, and if often is hard to get rid of - #slidersville!! 

Last updated yesterday - a lot can change in 24 hours. Perhaps for the better!

[kold weather]

58 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

And the far south looks like missing out again, yawn. So many false dawns this winter.

At least our vaccine supply will be unhindered I suppose.

I'm not sure thats quite right.

We could well be in a very solid place should any LP try to push in any time from Tuesday onwards, especially with a SE airflow. I'd also be surprised if there isn't snow showers coming through, especially the further east you god along the coast.

Though I will admit the south coast is always going to be quite marginal even in this set-up with an onshore flow.

Just gotta not get too jealous whilst the NE ends up getting a foot of snow  

Hopefully we can get a decent push from the east and get those showers packing in. 

Edited February 3, 2021 by kold weather

[kar999]

Marco Petagna's (from the Met Office) recent tweet looks promising.

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1356927542918344705?s=09

[Blessed Weather]

50 minutes ago, Martz86 said:

I just noticed the weather warnings and I've never seen them that in advance before, especially for snow, which usually only appear 1 day before! Excitings period coming up.

Welcome to the forum Martz86. Sorry about the delay approving your first post. You will also see that I've moved it into the Winter Chat thread as it's more appropriate here than in the Model Output discussion thread.

[kold weather]

Its going to be really interesting to keep a close eye on the snowfall totals over the NE and E.Scotland in particular from Saturday-Wednesday.

Wouldn't be at all surprised to see 30-50cms falling fairly widely over that period up there, and though there will be some modest melt during the daytime hours and compaction, your still probably looking at a solid 20-30cms on the ground by that point in the cold spell.

Further south is more dependent on exact position of the low and whether any fronts/troughs also rotate around the low, which is very possible. Should that happen the snow showers will push much further inland. If not probably jut scattered showers into western parts and maybe the south IF the low ends up a little too close to the SE.

Personally for my location, I'm not really expecting very much at all, maybe a little dusting Sunday, then cloudy with very light flurries unless we get a strong streamer line up perfectly. I think locally best chance may come in any attempt from the SW.

Kinda wish I could be back in Essex again for this set-up!

Edited February 3, 2021 by kold weather

[Frosty the Snowman]

24 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Looks like ‘Midlands North’ event

 

BFTP 

A largely east of the country event.

2 hours ago, Candice Bartley said:

Some warnings have appeared now

Definitely a close the curtains and switch the BBC off event here on the north west if that comes off. 

 

Hopefully a polar low can develop. 

[steveinsussex]

So a 3-4 day cold snap

 

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Should I be getting ready for our once a decade deep cold spell here.

For those who don’t know, due to the topography and coastline around Central Scotland, Glasgow can do pretty well from easterlies. Almost ideal for us as far as snow is concerned, whilst our sheltered position sees us get some very cold temps. I’ve known close to -20 on a few occasions, wondering if while we have some snow cover this might be another.