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Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter


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Posted
  • Location: Market Rasen
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Fog Thunderstorms
  • Location: Market Rasen

    Unfortunately I can only see this going one way now ECM is one of the most accurate models out there and with all the background signals we have had over the past 6 weeks and we haven’t had anything significant I’m throwing in the towel on this winter now as I can’t see anything significant at all we always get good charts 7- 10days out and it never falls into the reliable time frame unfortunately it’s one of the joys living in the UK sometimes we get lucky but unfortunately most cases we don’t on the plus side at least there won’t be any significant snow to disrupt vaccine distribution!

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

    Looks like curtains to any cold spell if Ecm continues with its output and keeps the low heights to our North.

    Other models also on the flimsy side this morning!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cold Rain City, Essex
  • Location: Cold Rain City, Essex

    To use a football analogy we are like a team who creates loads of chances but never scores. Yet again it looks like we may well snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    1 hour ago, Robbie Coldrain said:

    To use a football analogy we are like a team who creates loads of chances but never scores. Yet again it looks like we may well snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

     

    More like we’ve got a biased team with the north getting more benefits down the south!

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    I'm signing off for a few days - not sure what I want to witness the toys out of pram carnage in the mod thread.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    18 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    I'm signing off for a few days - not sure what I want to witness the toys out of pram carnage in the mod thread.

    You are correct. There are a few who create more drama than east enders and are bordering on being silly 

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    Yesterday was dull and grey all day here with rain at times. Today will be dull and grey here with rain at times, but colder.. 3C rising to 5C. I have tomorrow off work and it will be dull and grey. The sun won't be seen for these 3 days.

    I go back to work on Tuesday, and it actually looks nicer, up to 12C with sunshine and showers, but I'll be stuck indoors all day.

    I don't like this winter I don't like winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
    3 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    Looks like curtains to any cold spell if Ecm continues with its output and keeps the low heights to our North.

    Other models also on the flimsy side this morning!

    I think we just have to accept that in UK there will be some kind of 'spoiler' preventing cold air advection at least 80% of the time in this day and age! 🤬 

    Edited by snowblizzard
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    one thing i've learnt in recent winters is that Greenland Highs are overrated... heights nearer Iceland are more meaningful.  It's amazing that both low and high heights near Greenland can leave the UK stuck with south-westerlies.

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    Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, thunderstorms and sunny summer days.
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
    54 minutes ago, swfc said:

    You are correct. There are a few who create more drama than east enders and are bordering on being silly 

    It is quite funny to read it all to be fair. It happens every time on there. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, thunderstorms and sunny summer days.
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
    6 minutes ago, apophenia said:

    one thing i've learnt in recent winters is that Greenland Highs are overrated... heights nearer Iceland are more meaningful.  It's amazing that both low and high heights near Greenland can leave the UK stuck with south-westerlies.

    Quite agree. It needs to be an incredibly powerful Greenland high to guarantee cold weather in the UK. Even then we’re always likely to come under attack from systems to our SW. Scandi/ Iceland high is much better for the UK. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    If this does go teets up (every chance)...it won't just be the toys go flying but the pram will be in the river.

    This winter could be one for the memory, in the south/south east a case of 'great model viewing, crap out the window'.

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    41 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

    It is quite funny to read it all to be fair. It happens every time on there. 

    You’re doing that thing you do, again. 
     

    As a rank amateur who is selective over whose posts I take on board and also trying cut through the emotion. Would it be fair to say that while the models currently show problems that would scupper any cold spell, there is also still plenty of possibilities for snow in the next 10 days?

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
    1 hour ago, apophenia said:

    one thing i've learnt in recent winters is that Greenland Highs are overrated... heights nearer Iceland are more meaningful.  It's amazing that both low and high heights near Greenland can leave the UK stuck with south-westerlies.

    Agree 100%

    Most of the really cold spells I can remember have been with heights around Iceland or even better when linked to Scandi heights.

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    Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, thunderstorms and sunny summer days.
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
    22 minutes ago, TomB said:

    You’re doing that thing you do, again. 
     

    As a rank amateur who is selective over whose posts I take on board and also trying cut through the emotion. Would it be fair to say that while the models currently show problems that would scupper any cold spell, there is also still plenty of possibilities for snow in the next 10 days?

    I was commenting on the silliness that goes on when there’s one or two bad runs shown on the Model output. It’s been one hell of a winter for the models and the viewers this winter. My gut feeling as someone who has been interested in weather since I was a kid ( a very long time) is that there will be a very cold spell this February at some point, and there will be snow for some and maybe many very soon. People just need to chill and not make too much over a couple of bad runs. At the end of the day it’s only weather and there’s not much anyone can do to change it. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Gatwick
  • Location: Gatwick

    Just watched BBC weather for the week ahead. Typical winter weather with snow on Northern hills and Scotland, rain elsewhere and mild. Mentioned a bit cooler next weekend but no sign of the Beast. So that's a quarter of February gone without snow for those still waiting. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

    If this does go teets up (every chance)...it won't just be the toys go flying but the pram will be in the river.

    This winter could be one for the memory, in the south/south east a case of 'great model viewing, crap out the window'.

    Yep, the opp runs won't be wrong at day 5 and 6. Expect the ensemble suites to jump ship this afternoon. Can't be 100% certain of course but I think its best to approach this afternoons output on the assumption its going to be grim news and be pleasantly surprised if its not! Away from the SE things still look a bit more hopeful.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    7 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    Yep, the opp runs won't be wrong at day 5 and 6. Expect the ensemble suites to jump ship this afternoon. Can't be 100% certain of course but I think its best to approach this afternoons output on the assumption its going to be grim news and be pleasantly surprised if its not! Away from the SE things still look a bit more hopeful.

    Yep watch the lemmings follow the ops to the milder solution (as usual the one that verifies over colder options).

    Not bad further north though in the near term!

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    Posted
  • Location: Great yarmouth/ gorleston
  • Location: Great yarmouth/ gorleston
    4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    One thing that has happened on the 12z suite is a movement towards a much delayed push southwards of the cold air. Indeed GEM never even makes it, and the UKMO is probably only just about good enough as well.

    Most runs have been good for the north. Much more mixed for the south.

    I think its going to be very galling for us down here if the north gets hammered, whilst we end up again with rain...especially those poor guys in the SE which have had the total sum of 0 so far. 

    Personally, I'm not as bothered as so to speak, I've had mine already this winter now and 1 event is normally enough to leave me satisfied.  But if I didn't get that event, I'd hate some of those outputs tonight big time.

    Had bugger all here in the east and it doesn't look like that will change this time either, tbh think us can write another winter off this way 

    Edited by eddie1
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    I see the cool guys on twitter have retreated to posting esoteric AAM stuff again, which says it all about the current model output really. 

    It's not like a lack of northern blocking & amplification is the problem anyway.  It's been there all winter and the real arctic air just isn't coming.

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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
    34 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

    We needed the ECM to show this and it has!! 

    You wouldn't think that watching the Week ahead forecast on the Beeb, it was based completely on this mornings ECM rouge run with blow tourch south westerlies next weekend. 

    You would think the presenters would look at the bigger picture instead of just uploading the ECM straight on to the graphics.

    Pathetic 

    Andy

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

    You wouldn't think that watching the Week ahead forecast on the Beeb, it was based completely on this mornings ECM rouge run with blow tourch south westerlies next weekend. 

    You would think the presenters would look at the bigger picture instead of just uploading the ECM straight on to the graphics.

    Pathetic 

    Andy

    Agreed Andy.

    Really poor.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
    3 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

    You wouldn't think that watching the Week ahead forecast on the Beeb, it was based completely on this mornings ECM rouge run with blow tourch south westerlies next weekend. 

    You would think the presenters would look at the bigger picture instead of just uploading the ECM straight on to the graphics.

    Pathetic 

    Andy

    No way have they based the end of next week on this morning rogue ECM run 🙈 producer should be shot .....

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    3 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

    You wouldn't think that watching the Week ahead forecast on the Beeb, it was based completely on this mornings ECM rouge run with blow tourch south westerlies next weekend. 

    You would think the presenters would look at the bigger picture instead of just uploading the ECM straight on to the graphics.

    Pathetic 

    Andy

    Can't wait for the week ahead forecast to go up in smoke as the week goes on. Will be a spectacular fail, just like that Michael Fish hurricane moment

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