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Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter


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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    from the model thread!

    It is blindingly obvious to anyone watching chart outputs that as one looks at predictions from any model, the further out one looks the less accurate even in basic weather patterns they become. Watching posts on here with folk asking is the latest snow chart out, sometimes 6-7 days ahead is, axcuse my bluntness, living in cloud cuckoo land. Think back to wanting storms and them showing several days out then either not appearing or being in a different place. In summer the only unknown re ppn is rain, will it wont it when/where. For snow it takes another 7 or 8 variables to fall the right side of what is needed for you to get what you crave.  I've lost count how many times I have urged caution over the years about the models and what is likely to give you a less up and down ride but hey ho what does an old fella like me know. Many of you enjoy that ride but please don't make a fuss when it goes wrong.

    Sorry Paul and team I am going to delete this and put it where it should be, that isthe moaning thread!

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    Lordy, lordy, an agent provocateur

    Given that euphoria brought on by too much 'sniffing the coffee' has now become an art form, a quick reminder that counselling is still available, Mon-Frid, at the 'nailed on' clinic

    Another day, another 2 degree rain. I lost count of them. It's an absolute joke. 20 years ago this would have been all snow.   What a waste. So frustrating after a frustrating year and on to

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    11 hours ago, Severe Blizzard said:

    Still waiting for the first snow of winter in Guildford.

    Virtually no thunder last year and now yet another winter from Hell. If we can't get the snow here then at least a boring mild dry set up would be welcome so I can enjoy some cycling and not be reminded of the snow fest winter up north after all the thunderstorms the north enjoyed last year.

    I have to say down here its been frightfully dull, always just a little too mild for snow. I've been lucky in that I have seen  a bit of falling snow this winter (didn't see a flake last winter!) and on the south downs it was just about cold enough for it to settle at points.

    I'm getting the distinct feeling this may end up being one of those winters where some places will end up getting some good falls of snow and over time a good deal of the country does get it, but the unlucky places will see literally nothing.

    Already a clear north-south split in the snow opportunities thus far. The upcoming pattern may well further enhance that if it sets up too far north.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    No winter till February,  if "real" winter is delayed until February, I've just seen posted.

    Weird seeing these comments and it still below zero at 12.30pm outside and I can see the plants etc  are covered in rime....

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
    4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    Winter index for my area is up to 76 as we are halfway through the meteorological winter.

    I reckon it has been the wintriest first half of winter since 2010-11 and that winter was more or less over by this stage. 

    The winter index is just 37 here at the moment, which is pretty poor considering how little zonal weather we've had this winter.

    That number is only propped up by days of falling sleet and a fair number of air frosts aswell. Its been a snowless winter so far.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    No winter till February,  if "real" winter is delayed until February, I've just seen posted.

    Weird seeing these comments and it still below zero at 12.30pm outside and I can see the plants etc  are covered in rime....

     

    I think that backs up just how split this winter has been, some places locally have done very well indeed.

    In other areas its been just about snowless. As I said I have seen a little bit of snow so I can't say its been totally snowless, but down here its been  very meh so far, with plenty of close but not quite situations.

    Its actually been more frustrating than zonal winters so far personally, at least in those there is little chance of anything. Down here this winter we've always been close but not quite. Its been probably 1-2c too mild, otherwise we'd probably have had several decent snow events already.

    I'm quite hopeful that Saturday will give some snow in this region, and there is a chance of it settling on higher ground before it swings back to rain. Better than nothing but still very transient in nature.

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    Posted
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey

    I’m fully confident that they’ll be a new mod discussion thread beginning of Feb entitled 

    “ model output discussion - snow for all ,when will it ever end “

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    BBC forecasters are annoying me at the moment, keep going on about how mild next week is going to be. Yes we know that, shame you can't mention that it's only temporary, think most people would prefer dry and cold like today, rather than mild and the usual rain and strong winds that go with it!!

    But keep pushing out the word MILD, hope we get the Siberian High eventually and the bbc forecasters are digging themselves out of their homes the irony if it happens!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic

    Fingers crossed for snow overnight and tomorrow for the gang in the SE. Been a wintry week here in Prague. Had our first snowfall a week ago on Wednesday. Daytime temperatures edged slightly above freezing for most days, so the snow became patchy but there have bern a lot of snow showers. This Wednesday night just gone, had some heavy thunder-snow! Today, the temperature hasn’t risen above 0°C and it’s been snowing heavily all afternoon, so it’s a very wintry picture and the children are loving it. Looks like a very chilly weekend here, with daytime temperatures no higher than -4°C and down to -11°C at night 🥶

    7340ABEE-3C58-4C45-9D8D-D57524468131.jpeg

    E419B254-2DBC-4606-B4DE-92EA810F84A5.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London

    The sun has finally made a brief appearance this afternoon for the first time in 6 days. Maybe 2 hours worth, though the recorder will only pick up an hour at best.

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    Posted
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford

    Bit of an imby post but east of England on an amber warning!

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    Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
    55 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    BBC forecasters are annoying me at the moment, keep going on about how mild next week is going to be. Yes we know that, shame you can't mention that it's only temporary, think most people would prefer dry and cold like today, rather than mild and the usual rain and strong winds that go with it!!

    But keep pushing out the word MILD, hope we get the Siberian High eventually and the bbc forecasters are digging themselves out of their homes the irony if it happens!! 

    It's called polishing a  t... rd, they've had years of practice. Take your point though, dry and cold is infinatly preferable to relentless wind and rain. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex

    Anyone noticed there is an amber weather warning out for snow or are you all looking for snow next June to notice?

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    Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex

    I doubt it'll snow here I'm on the immediate coast

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge
    1 hour ago, Snipper said:

    Anyone noticed there is an amber weather warning out for snow or are you all looking for snow next June to notice?

    Goes to show how out of touch those warnings are. It's all rain.

    Floods yes, snow no, away from northern areas above 300m for an hour.

    I'm calling the end of winter hunt for snow for Jan and first week of feb. Thereafter who knows, but trends suggest more of the same. 

    Only three frosts here near Cambridge so far, not even a snowflake. Usual winter fair.

    Edited by DCee
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    Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
    10 minutes ago, DCee said:

    Goes to show how out of touch those warnings are. It's all rain.

    Floods yes, snow no, away from northern areas above 300m for an hour.

    I'm calling the end of winter for Jan and first week of feb. Thereafter who knows, but trends suggest more of the same.

    Do you ever change the record, we have been and are still in cold spell, had umpteen frosts, 5 days of falling snow and looks to go cold again after a brief blip, that's just here. Never mind what's been going on further north. Anyone would think we have been in mild South Westerlies since 1st Dec!

    Edited by ribster
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge
    4 minutes ago, ribster said:

    Do you ever change the record, we have been and are still in cold spell, had umpteen frosts, 5 days of falling snow and looks to go cold again after a brief blip, that's just here. Never mind what's been going on further north. Anyone would we have been in mild South Westerlies since 1st Dec!

    What a lovely winter wonderland for you! Been very different here, same as 90% of the UK population.

    As soon as winter arrives the record changes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
    5 minutes ago, ribster said:

    Do you ever change the record, we have been and are still in cold spell, had umpteen frosts, 5 days of falling snow and looks to go cold again after a brief blip, that's just here. Never mind what's been going on further north. Anyone would we have been in mild South Westerlies since 1st Dec!

    Cold spell for you maybe, where I am last 2 days were 10c 11c, colder today at 6c but lots more 9s,10s and 11s in the forecast for here next week. I did enjoy early January's few frosts and winter sun though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 15c (the sunnier the better!)
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

    With moderate knowledge of weather I can't see tomorrow delivering snow below 300m as there's too much cloud around tonight to let ground temps fall and the wind will mix the atmosphere preventing that evaporative cooling effect. Too marginal this time!

    Looking very far ahead, I look forward to those days where the sun is shining and I'm using too much mobile data by constantly refreshing temp readings to see if we hit 30C (or maybe break any records).

    Forgive me for being premature, but I reckon we'll see a mixed spring with early summer heat. Not going for a record breaker (La Nina) but a dry summer with high pressure more over the UK is my punt!

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    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
    8 minutes ago, Freeze said:

    Cold spell for you maybe, where I am last 2 days were 10c 11c, colder today at 6c but lots more 9s,10s and 11s in the forecast for here next week. I did enjoy early January's few frosts and winter sun though.

    Yes seems like you are having the crumbs in the south,cannot complain here,everyone out sledging for the second day and hilltop regions have had some snowcover for over a week.The opposite to summer where we are lucky to get one day a year to hit 30 deg you will get 3 weeks worth as well as 100 extra sun hours!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Sun
  • Location: Bristol

    Snow forecast for some of UK tomorrow and the mod page is in meltdown over what wont happen in 10 days time 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
    9 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

    Yes seems like you are having the crumbs in the south,cannot complain here,everyone out sledging for the second day and hilltop regions have had some snowcover for over a week.The opposite to summer where we are lucky to get one day a year to hit 30 deg you will get 3 weeks worth as well as 100 extra sun hours!

     

    You're in a sweet spot when it comes to cold and snow, I cannot complain really as its expected in my area. Yeah I suppose the tables turn in summer, although 30c is rare here it's consistently warm dry and sunny.

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    Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
    45 minutes ago, DCee said:

    What a lovely winter wonderland for you! Been very different here, same as 90% of the UK population.

    As soon as winter arrives the record changes.

    Midlands, East Anglia, North, NW, NE, Scotland, Wales...

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    Posted
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.

    I’ve had very little snow at the top of the Isle of Lewis this winter,however most of mainland Scotland and especially at elevation has benefited from top up snow conditions.Excellent indicators that this winter so far has been on the colder side of average.I don’t know what the pressure patterns looked like early 1800’s (which produced classic winters) but since then,consistent,extreme and protracted winters appear only as one shot wonders.The models flip flop until the 120 hr point and end up getting the patterns right under that timescale with usual acceptable  deviances.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
    35 minutes ago, ribster said:

    Midlands, East Anglia, North, NW, NE, Scotland, Wales...

    I'm confused -you can't be more than 30 miles from me yet I've barely seen any snow this winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    22 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

    I'm confused -you can't be more than 30 miles from me yet I've barely seen any snow this winter.

    I'm only 500m or so from the South Norfolk border and, apart from a few flakes back in December, I've nae seen any! 

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