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Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter


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Posted
  • Location: York, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Heat
  • Location: York, UK

    Haven't we seen this before, where all models show a cold spell incoming, drop the idea, then bring it back closer to the time?

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    Lordy, lordy, an agent provocateur

    Given that euphoria brought on by too much 'sniffing the coffee' has now become an art form, a quick reminder that counselling is still available, Mon-Frid, at the 'nailed on' clinic

    Another day, another 2 degree rain. I lost count of them. It's an absolute joke. 20 years ago this would have been all snow.   What a waste. So frustrating after a frustrating year and on to

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge

    The UK would have been much better off without the recent [half hearted] SSW, its as simple as that. Another down dwelling will likely invigorate the jet even more. 

    Edited by DCee
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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    27 minutes ago, Alexis said:

    Just viewed all the models and my conclusion - they don't have a scooby doo.

    I think they will have a better grip on the weather come May.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Location: Wolverhampton

    Looks like this threat of the forecasted long term cold is welded to the distant horizon.

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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire

    Although it’s been a bit of a disappointment, this isn’t the usual ‘winter’s over’ implosion. 
    There is still huge scope and time for something special to reappear with a nh profile like we are seeing!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Sun
  • Location: Bristol

    Apparently the models don't have a 'scooby do' ...well, correct, they don't🤣, the weather will be what it will be 😏. It'll be ok at day 10 though. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge

    DJdazzle repeatedly (correctly) mentions the problematic heights over Atlantic facing Europe, without lowering of these heights, low pressure systems will continually phase with stalled fronts to UK East. Leading to very wet and average conditions for most of UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Waterford Airport
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Waterford Airport
    10 minutes ago, ianmm94 said:

    Haven't we seen this before, where all models show a cold spell incoming, drop the idea, then bring it back closer to the time?

    Unfortunately the opposite is even more common. 

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    It’s overall pattern, I’ve often argued the same thing but in this case, if we reach the point with one strong rounded low over us whilst the other one meanders across and phases with it, it’s basically game over for any proper cold being tapped into.

    The snow event is a small movement in the grand scheme of the output.

    I doubt we’ll be any closer to any conclusion by this evening. Things like this don’t just happen with cold either, as a heat lover, I find it just the same with heatwaves. At just a couple of days away, we saw it last summer, progged to have a scorching day, only to be plagued with North Sea mist and 10-15c wiped off the temperature. 

    The weather will decide what it wants to do at the end of the day. Model watching at times Is like trying to believe an article in The Sun, express or the Daily Mail! 

    Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    I think all models are wrong maybe upgrade coming later or tomorrow met office seem confident yesterday in there outlook colder weather coming from Scandinavia 

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    9 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    6z is painfully slow at edging the pattern south! Eventually by day 10 the boundary line has come south enough to allow for a good snow event in the heart of the UK.

    spacer.png

    Lets hope the slow game sets us up for a cold last week of Jan eh......and into Feb.....(yes it'll be summer in a minute.)

    Wow great to see the fun is there at day 10. What a surprise.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Location: Wolverhampton

    It's never going to happen with those fluctuant pressure changes over the Iberian peninsula and NW Africa. Best to hope for the occasional 2/3 day bursts i think.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    For some reason or other I never believed in this period coming up (this could still change but I doubt it) for further cold and snow (yes that word which I haven't even seen a sniff of so far) after the cold spell we've already experienced. Not many times since the Millennium have we had a cold spell followed by a milder blip and another cold spell - maybe just the cold winter of 2009/10 and 2012/13 comes to mind.

    The models seem to be trending away from any real cold and looking at the ecm 0z this morning the UK might just experience some wintry stuff for the north or higher elevated locations this along way away from the first modelling from this potential spell that wanted to bring in frigid air from the north east.

    If the modelling keeps going away from any cold in the next week it would be very interesting to hear from the likes of Marco P/Matt H/Judah Cohen etc. and others whom of late have been banging the SSW/Cold into NW Europe drum...what I'm currently seeing is underwhelming considering the background of the SSW coupling with the trop.

    Would be a real dis-heartening winter in my opinion considering the lack of Atlantic depressions yet still nothing noteworthy, certainly in my location, and what would stick in mind most would be that complete dud easterly in January. 

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Posted
  • Location: North Yate, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: North Yate, South Glos
    10 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

    I think all models are wrong maybe upgrade coming later or tomorrow met office seem confident yesterday in there outlook colder weather coming from Scandinavia 

    I agree, I always back the met office. The models will probably upgrade again later but maybe not to the siberian weather some seem to hope for. The main problem being this is Britain, not Siberia! 

    In saying that I still think this winter will end up on the cold side with plenty of snow chances for all. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    1 minute ago, Notty said:

    Even the GFS and GFS(P) are completely different.

    I just wish I could stop looking at the longer range. Can I get help on the NHS for this addiction?

    No.

    The NHS is not for treating sick people now, it is for saving in case there are sick people in the future.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge
    11 minutes ago, John88B said:

    I agree, I always back the met office. The models will probably upgrade again later but maybe not to the siberian weather some seem to hope for. The main problem being this is Britain, not Siberia! 

    In saying that I still think this winter will end up on the cold side with plenty of snow chances for all. 

    We shall see, but I have confidence in that the MO have got it wrong. They will likely make a fast back track and head into rain and wind at times from the SW, overall average to mild with cooler periods in the north from time to time.

    Edited by DCee
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    Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
    54 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    I think they will have a better grip on the weather come May.

    Not really, then we move on to the models showing glorious summer weather and thunderstorms, which, just as in winter, are always just 10 days away.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    Big disappointment with this morning's runs. Not only a shift in the Ops but many of the ensemble members too. It doesn't rule out cold and snow later this month and into early Feb, but it certainly pushes back the prospect of any possible deep cold. 

    Always important to remember I suppose that a SSW, especially a displacement rather than split, merely increases our chances of a cold outbreak, but never guarantees it. It always takes so many different factors falling into place for the UK to benefit, and any one of those can scupper it. 

    So, far less likely we'll see cold landing on around the 20th now as previously thought, but the volatile nature of the outputs in recent weeks means don't write anything off yet as far as this winter is concerned. The basic facts are we have still had a SSW, zonal winds are still reversed, there are signs of another warming taking place, the Atlantic is still as dead as disco for this time of year, blocking is still likely at higher latitudes and we are still in peak mid winter, up until about the second week of Feb. The impacts of a SSW on the vortex can often last for many weeks or months, so as long as we don't see a restrengthening of the vortex, we are always in with a shout of cold and snow. Sometimes it just takes a wedge to fall into a favourable position, eg Jan 2013. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I really can't see any reason behind the current despondency. I mean, it's the weather, not the models, that delivers us our daily bread!🙏

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey
  • Location: Surrey

    Interesting to see that Matt Hugo tweeting that there may have been some changes eleswhere in the World that have led to todays changes in the models. It look like they fall into Scott Ingham's area of interest and so it would be great to hear what Scott's thoughts are going forward. Looking at the changes though between the the model runs from both versions of the GSF today I am not sure anything is set in stone yet. Big swings as to where high and low pressure is predicted between runs today.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales

    image.thumb.png.59f8c2fa218d70da67b588ec97ae0a40.png
    Yuk it’s not like we can even escape this crud to go skiing in the alps for a snow fix hopefully we’ve had a couple of rogue outlier runs from the gfs and the next few will take us back to something resembling yesterday’s 12z runs 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 minute ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

    image.thumb.png.59f8c2fa218d70da67b588ec97ae0a40.png
    Yuk it’s not like we can even escape this crud to go skiing in the alps for a snow fix hopefully we’ve had a couple of rogue outlier runs from the gfs and the next few will take us back to something resembling yesterday’s 12z runs 

    I no-longer care whether or not February is cold... But I do think a long, hot spring and summer would do wonders for the populace's sense of wellbeing. What a shi'ite of a year it's been!☹️

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    Posted
  • Location: Godstone Surrey
  • Location: Godstone Surrey

    Agree ..just seen  the Matt Hugo tweet,, some back peddling indeed!  ..it seems the Greenland block forecast has weakened and the jet will not be diving so south .. seems to me that the  so called dead Atlantic is alive and kicking ..I would avoid the Model thread as there is much mass slicing of the wrists!! .. they never learn that showing charts even 7 days out is pointless waste of time 

    In  a way I am glad ..the last dagger we need  as a Country is a spell of wintry weather as we battle to get so many people vaccinated .... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford

    Have to say, it looks like there is going to be an awful lot of stuff falling from the skies....I’m watching this thread avidly to get an idea what everyone thinks the stuff will be

    (we’ve already had one flood in Bedford.... could do with some white stuff! )

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    2 minutes ago, Brassmonkeylily said:

    Agree ..just seen  the Matt Hugo tweet,, some back peddling indeed!  ..it seems the Greenland block forecast has weakened and the jet will not be diving so south .. seems to me that the  so called dead Atlantic is alive and kicking ..I would avoid the Model thread as there is much mass slicing of the wrists!! .. they never learn that showing charts even 7 days out is pointless waste of time 

    In  a way I am glad ..the last dagger we need  as a Country is a spell of wintry weather as we battle to get so many people vaccinated .... 

    Yes my only concern with a big freeze and lots of snow (as much as I want one) is that it could hamper the vaccine roll out, which is really the last thing we need. 

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