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Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter


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Posted
  • Location: South Lakeland.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme events.
  • Location: South Lakeland.

    Great too see some realism in here folks - nice read people talking sense, I think I will spend more time here. In the short-term once we get this rather weak cold spell out of the way it looks like things will get milder (albeit not too mild) with lots of cloud and rain, as per a standard British winter. 

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    Lordy, lordy, an agent provocateur

    Another day, another 2 degree rain. I lost count of them. It's an absolute joke. 20 years ago this would have been all snow.   What a waste. So frustrating after a frustrating year and on to

    Given that euphoria brought on by too much 'sniffing the coffee' has now become an art form, a quick reminder that counselling is still available, Mon-Frid, at the 'nailed on' clinic

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Further to the comment about "25 years ago it would have been snow", I remember this one well. It was Wednesday 6th December 1995 during the easterly, preciptation actually turned to sleet here and I remember wondering why has it turned to sleet? It was snowing the day before, the wind direction was the same and the forecast never suggested this would happen, yet it was sleeting. 

    Saw the Rob McElwee forecast and it turned out across a lot of the low ground over northern England, precipitation had turned less wintry but it did turn back into snow overnight. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    January easterly brings rain at 200m

    Joke.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

    The gullibility of people on this forum absolutely never ceases to amaze me, it's borderline comical. I'm ashamed to be part of a forum where a large majority of users can't interpret what people are saying and then apply it to really the most basic common sense. 

    It's like the second an SSW is mentioned said users are spreading Chinese whispers about an ice age coming, how foolish? No wonder we are constantly fed news about front door scams, bank issues etc. 

    There has to be a massive congratulations to the likes of Catacol, Chio, Scott, Feb, Bluearmy, Crewe etc - these guys went against the 'best', most expensive and technologically advanced computer forecasting models in predicting this SSW would happen and it has that is the best bit of forecasting on the website this year. 

    I actually feel a bit sorry for these guys now though, even when discussing events after an SSW, they consistently used phrases such as 'might' or 'could do' - no guarantees, no promises. Yet as per usual when an ice age isn't showing the second an SSW starts in the Strat, people are launching toys like no tomorrow - it's embarrassing? Can people not control themselves? 

    Seen as a good portion of people seem to need to rely on opinions of others to survive, let's sit down in the classroom and do some lines.

    'An SSW does not GUARANTEE cold and snow to our 700 mile islands'....repeat

    'An SSW can bring poor wintry weather to the UK'....repeat

    'I must not use people's opinions to build up my hopes'....repeat

    'If I live along the south coast, south west or inner London my hopes of Wintry weather must remain lower than the rest of the UK'...repeat

    'An SSW is a weather phenomenon. We can't ignore winter output for 6 weeks because one may happen'

    People do understand the basic logic of an SSW don't they? All it does is slightly increase the chances of cold and snow for the UK?

    It's no guarantee, it's no banker and it certainly isn't worth some of the hype that goes into it. We have a very small sample size of what an SSW does? We do realise an SSW isn't a new thing in the weather, it's just that we are only now reaching an understanding with increased use of charts and data available? 

    A particularly important comment I feel....'SSW's have been happening since the earth was formed...but UK winters are nearly always rubbish' - how can we be any clearer on taking the impact of an SSW with a pinch of salt?

    If all of that wasn't enough, the UK is in the VERY worst location for any reversal in the entire of Europe. We are the furthest point away from any cold reverse and constantly the first at risk of an Atlantic sea that is so bias and so over-powering in this part of the world. That means everything has to go our way and anything can go wrong. 

    I'm not sure how it can be made any clearer?

    People need to be approaching the thread/today's 12z with the view that we are looking at normal standard January weather conditions, if the SSW has any good impact - then that needs to be viewed as a bonus. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    January easterly brings rain at 200m

    Joke.

    The time of year has nothing to do with it.

    The air is wrapped around and sourced from the Med, a naturally mild location.

    Until that changes, it's not going to snow - unfortunate and frustrating yes, but it's just a fact of the weather. 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    The time of year has nothing to do with it.

    The air is wrapped around and sourced from the Med, a naturally mild location.

    Until that changes, it's not going to snow - unfortunate and frustrating yes, but it's just a fact of the weather. 

    Uppers -6/-7 ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Uppers -6/-7 ?

    Look at the example I just posted above your post, where it was raining and sleeting across low ground over northern England and look at the uppers that day 

    NOAA_1_1995120618_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
    12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Uppers -6/-7 ?

    Doesn't matter when it's sourced from a warm/mild part of the world. 

    Especially when DP's come into the fold.

    You can have -16 uppers, but if DP's aren't favourable all that will fall out of the sky is rain. 

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    36 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    The gullibility of people on this forum absolutely never ceases to amaze me, it's borderline comical. I'm ashamed to be part of a forum where a large majority of users can't interpret what people are saying and then apply it to really the most basic common sense. 

    It's like the second an SSW is mentioned said users are spreading Chinese whispers about an ice age coming, how foolish? No wonder we are constantly fed news about front door scams, bank issues etc. 

    There has to be a massive congratulations to the likes of Catacol, Chio, Scott, Feb, Bluearmy, Crewe etc - these guys went against the 'best', most expensive and technologically advanced computer forecasting models in predicting this SSW would happen and it has that is the best bit of forecasting on the website this year. 

    I actually feel a bit sorry for these guys now though, even when discussing events after an SSW, they consistently used phrases such as 'might' or 'could do' - no guarantees, no promises. Yet as per usual when an ice age isn't showing the second an SSW starts in the Strat, people are launching toys like no tomorrow - it's embarrassing? Can people not control themselves? 

    Seen as a good portion of people seem to need to rely on opinions of others to survive, let's sit down in the classroom and do some lines.

    'An SSW does not GUARANTEE cold and snow to our 700 mile islands'....repeat

    'An SSW can bring poor wintry weather to the UK'....repeat

    'I must not use people's opinions to build up my hopes'....repeat

    'If I live along the south coast, south west or inner London my hopes of Wintry weather must remain lower than the rest of the UK'...repeat

    'An SSW is a weather phenomenon. We can't ignore winter output for 6 weeks because one may happen'

    People do understand the basic logic of an SSW don't they? All it does is slightly increase the chances of cold and snow for the UK?

    It's no guarantee, it's no banker and it certainly isn't worth some of the hype that goes into it. We have a very small sample size of what an SSW does? We do realise an SSW isn't a new thing in the weather, it's just that we are only now reaching an understanding with increased use of charts and data available? 

    A particularly important comment I feel....'SSW's have been happening since the earth was formed...but UK winters are nearly always rubbish' - how can we be any clearer on taking the impact of an SSW with a pinch of salt?

    If all of that wasn't enough, the UK is in the VERY worst location for any reversal in the entire of Europe. We are the furthest point away from any cold reverse and constantly the first at risk of an Atlantic sea that is so bias and so over-powering in this part of the world. That means everything has to go our way and anything can go wrong. 

    I'm not sure how it can be made any clearer?

    People need to be approaching the thread/today's 12z with the view that we are looking at normal standard January weather conditions, if the SSW has any good impact - then that needs to be viewed as a bonus. 

     

    A deal of what you say is fairly true BUT can you not just try and be a bit less aggressive in your posting please?

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    Just now, johnholmes said:

    A deal of what you say is fairly true BUT can you not just try and be a bit less aggressive in your posting please?

    I agree, but a 2 week suspension of his or her account would help him cool down. Then again this thread is only here to allow people to have a pop at others.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    16 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    Doesn't matter when it's sourced from a warm/mild part of the world. 

    Especially when DP's come into the fold.

    You can have -16 uppers, but if DP's aren't favourable all that will fall out of the sky is rain. 

    You'd need phenomenally warm and humid surface air for that scenario to ever occur!!!!😱

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    I agree, but a 2 week suspension of his or her account would help him cool down. Then again this thread is only here to allow people to have a pop at others.

    It is here, my understanding suggests, to have a moan about the weather NOT to be unkind or unpleasant to other members on here. By all means try and help others if you have a higher knowledge but do not belittle actual folk. My idea how to behave others may disagree.

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    It is here, my understanding suggests, to have a moan about the weather NOT to be unkind or unpleasant to other members on here. By all means try and help others if you have a higher knowledge but do not belittle actual folk. My idea how to behave others may disagree.

    I agree John but the last thread was full of it.

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    5 hours ago, Rapodo said:

    Comments above regarding whether this current setup is anything to do with Global warming it's not! If this same set up happened 25 years ago it would be the same. All the cold is over the other side. If it was closer we would have tapped into colder air it's as simple as that.

     

    I'd have thought that borderline setups like this are an example of where we are likely to directly see an effect of warming... where a 1degC-ish raise in background temps will be the difference between wet snow and sleet/rain.  (Although the biblical deluges in the Lake District of the 2009/2015 El Ninos are surely the most directly visible effects.)

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    50 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    Doesn't matter when it's sourced from a warm/mild part of the world. 

    Especially when DP's come into the fold.

    You can have -16 uppers, but if DP's aren't favourable all that will fall out of the sky is rain. 

    According to Gfs the dews are negative!

    Anyway ..thanks for your replies 🙂 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
    29 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    A deal of what you say is fairly true BUT can you not just try and be a bit less aggressive in your posting please?

    Hi John, no worries. It's like trying to knock down the great wall of China with your head on this forum at times. It wasn't meant to be aggressive, but the 'softer' tone of message tends to do nothing to help all of the sane posters on this website so I figured I'd be a bit more blunt about it. Hopefully it catches a few eyes. 

     

    36 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    Bye 👋

    Think you have missed the point there. 

    I'm ashamed to be associated with a certain section of posters on this website, particularly just lately with all the overblown SSW-gate drivel where people have clearly hung on the every word of other posters and then interpreted that an ice age is coming. Much like society itself with this whole Covid saga, it's embarrassing to be British at times. 

     

    31 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    I agree, but a 2 week suspension of his or her account would help him cool down. Then again this thread is only here to allow people to have a pop at others.

    Why would an account suspension be required or even mentioned? I'm as cool as a cucumber. I'm trying to get others to follow suit.

    I preached the exact point that John himself and many numerous other long standing posters/moderators in here have done; stay calm and don't take things at face value every 6 hours or else you will find yourself going mad. Don't think an SSW brings you guaranteed cold. The only difference is that I used Bold to enhance the points I was trying to make. 

    Thank goodness you will never make it as a mod on this website. We'd have the best members suspended for telling us to stay calm...

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
    5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    According to Gfs the dews are negative!

    Anyway ..thanks for your replies 🙂 

    Further proof that the GFS is flawed 😄

    Hopefully it changes for the better mate, but it's the original source of air that's the issue here. 

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    9 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

     

    Think you have missed the point there.  (NOPE)

    I'm ashamed to be associated with a certain section of posters on this website (Then Bye then), particularly just lately with all the overblown SSW-gate drivel where people have clearly hung on the every word of other posters and then interpreted that an ice age is coming. Much like society itself with this whole Covid saga, it's embarrassing to be British at times.

    (Not sure I have read an ice age is coming but I have a good ignore list so maybe that's why, you should try it)

    Why would an account suspension be required or even mentioned? I'm as cool as a cucumber. I'm trying to get others to follow suit.

    (Because your overly aggressive and think you need police people and their opinions rathr than just ignoring the obvious nonsense that is posted on here.)
     

    I preached the exact point that John himself and many numerous other long standing posters/moderators in here have done; stay calm and don't take things at face value every 6 hours or else you will find yourself going mad. Don't think an SSW brings you guaranteed cold. The only difference is that I used Bold to enhance the points I was trying to make.

    (So what, people don't care and they don't want to be preached at so just let them get excited and disappointed all on there own in comfort of your own Ignore list)

    Thank goodness you will never make it as a mod on this website. We'd have the best members suspended for telling us to stay calm...

    (You are one of the best posters on this site? 🙄)


     

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

     Some People take this weather lark too seriously if you ask here me.I read one poster said he had 25 pages of ignored users,on a weather forum,seriously?

    Beyond sad,why not leave the weather forum if its causing you so much distress talking about the WEATHER

    giphy.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: South Lakeland.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme events.
  • Location: South Lakeland.
    2 hours ago, frosty ground said:

    Bye 👋

    I DELETED AND EDITED THIS MY POST MYSELF. AS A CONMUNITY WE ARE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER AS ONE! 🤝🌈

    Edited by Barmada_Casten
    Don’t want to upset the apple 🍏🍎 cart.
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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Location: Basingstoke

    What a grim day, out working in it all day, persistent drizzle, really gusty winds, possibly my least favourite weather other than hot and humid. Seems weird there’s not even sleet showing up on the radar.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    9 minutes ago, saintkip said:

    What a grim day, out working in it all day, persistent drizzle, really gusty winds, possibly my least favourite weather other than hot and humid. Seems weird there’s not even sleet showing up on the radar.

    Isn't it known as Tropical continental air? coming over a warm north sea, no wonder it's mild, need polar continental if it's to be convective

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    Posted
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire

    well lots of dissapointments over last few days, or years ! I know the madness of FI charts and all that, and after last years winter which was truely dreadful for snow even in my location

    if the current NHP pattern and the SSW mean we end up with high pressure sat over us then I,m afraid I will have to give up watching the models and slowly retreat to other hobbies this after 14 years on here checking out some great posts. This is even after two small snowfalls in last 10 days, which were both between 3 to 5cms.  I cannot even imagine whats its like for some who live at lower alleavations and further south and have posted that they have not seen snow fall or lie for a few years.

     SO THE - Rowing machine is on order, may get a second hand cross trainer and slowly retire from this great pastime, get fit loose some weight.

    current patterns are great to look at, belive me, some winters have been a nightmare, nothing to even really view or get exicted about but currently all we are getting is rain, rain, rain. I am begining to give up hope of a truly great snowy pattern for all (apart from 2010).☹️

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