Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

[Chesil View]

Just another set of runs for something still a week away  and people acting as though these are the ones that will definitely verify in every detail. It's laughable really.

Edited January 13, 2021 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Vikos]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Weird  since this was a "nailed-on cold spell" it appears to have all going wrong! 

 

Still, it 13-1-2021, not 13-3-2021... we need to keep the faith or go for a new hobby....

[Sweatyman]

YUKMO. Best description for this dam thing. Yet another 00z downgrade. What a surprise! 

[Robin2012]

4 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Just another set of runs for something still a week away  and people acting as though these are the ones that will definitely verify in every detail. It's laughable really.

Agree

The amount of people crawling out of the wood shed, I mean woodwork with a semi this morning is even more laughable/sad/predictable choose any

[snow mad]

It is only one set of runs but so far this winter the models have teased. Leading up to Xmas was the same as now. They keep pumping out great charts that seem to get heavily watered down until they’re barely noticeable in reality. So far from all the eye candy charts our winter has produced a prolonged cool and very wet period and four frosts. I think if we look back at this winter so far it’s been pretty ordinary and looks to be continuing that way. 

[winterfreak]

11 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

I do giggle at some of the posts on here 1 or  2 days of good cold runs and the mood is sky high then just 1 bad run and winter is over !!!

Come on Beefy, you know if it could go wrong here it would. Milder charts much more likely to verify, it's the form horse. 

[Bristawl Si]

The most severe January for yonks seems to be slipping away.

Edited January 13, 2021 by Bristle boy

[topo]

41 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

What did i say about the 00z bringing us back down to earth!!!!we got problems these cold charts are struggling to get closer and when they do they are gettin watered down as always!!the only good thing bout this morning is the upgrade in snow for the midlands and for once the ecm is actually playing catch up on this event which is quiet refreshing to see!!!think we we need to look east between 72 and 120 hours just incase that ridge into scandi upgrades!!

It's ridiculous. 

Even in Scandinavia which seemed certain some hours ago we are struggling to get real cold even at 240hours..

What a bad luck..

[joggs]

Another kick squarely in the nuts. I'm sure some sort of being is absolutely jaffa cakesing their selves at us. Well..................onto day 10 potential fgs

[Valleyboy]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Feels like its unravelling Nick...

And I'm not sure Exeter saw this coming either judging by the upgrade yesterday ...

Todays update will be interesting to say the very least, I suspect they will stick with the script but a big 24 hours for coldies coming up...it about time we had some luck!!!

Although it isn’t great viewing this morning, I would wait before getting too downbeat about cold prospects.  I believe we should look north east for a pressure rise (Scandi high).  Too much has been made of the Greenland high prospects over the past few weeks, but I believe there will be a westward advance of the Russian high, which will be a game changer.

[andy989]

36 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Unbelievable. No beating around the bush from me . What a downgrade across the board . Not just 1 or 2 wobbles , the runs across the board are terrible compared to yesterday . Can’t believe how flat it’s gone in the mid range . Time to have a break , these  false dawns are frustrating the hell out of me man

If you can't believe it, probably shouldn't believe it. Narnia charts again tonight, followed by this again tomorrow morning. Models clearly don't have a jar of glue at the moment. 

[beefy201]

15 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Come on Beefy, you know if it could go wrong here it would. Milder charts much more likely to verify, it's the form horse. 

I think the form horse is out of the window this winter ….. its going to be a ride but trust coldies are in for a Treat

[cobbett]

For us who live in the south winter hasn't even started and nothing but chilly dank weather on the horizon so yep January is a bust. Still  Feb i suppose and even March of course

[jayb1989]

Can’t believe there is so much surprise in here this morning. The reality is the cold available was already being watered down on yesterdays output. Anything noteable has been in 10 day range plus now for over a week. The joys of living in a maritime climate mean things are always more likely to go wrong than right, especially when you take into account a warming world.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, topo said:

It's ridiculous. 

Even in Scandinavia which seemed certain some hours ago we are struggling to get real cold even at 240hours..

What a bad luck..

Blimey you know it's bad when folk from Norway are complaining!.

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

Agreed. Lots of hype and very little delivered yet. 

 

Still time for the Thames to freeze over 

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

1 hour ago, Windysun1 said:

I would agree with this but Matt Hugos tweet this morning was quiet uninspiring and i would of said he likes a little ramp as regards cold.

Yeah you know it’s not looking good when Matt tweets what he did this morning. He’s usually very positive when it comes to forecasting cold weather.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

All the means, majority of ens had been pointing to the cold arriving at day 6, now we are back to day 10 again.

Very strange. 

I wouldn’t say strange, I’d say this is completely normal model watching in winter in the UK. In a weeks time the cold will probably still be 10days out. Having had a 14day spell of below average weather in winter like we just have i think we’ll be hard pushed to come up with anything anywhere near that good (and I didn’t even see a single flake of snow) 

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Blimey you know it's bad when folk from Norway are complaining!.

Oh dear Been sent to the naughty step!....

[Weathizard]

Unfortunately with a SSW it’s total luck of the draw, they are very hit and miss we all know that, you can see the impact with the Arctic heights right over the pole but it looks to me like even a disorganised tropospheric vortex is almost too disorganised.

I was fairly stunned this morning to see such a climb down, it’s quite a remarkable feat of bad luck that we’ve had a very quiet Atlantic and still through pure bad luck ended up in a stagnant pattern of stagnant LP over or near the U.K. phasing poorly with pressure across the Atlantic, if it’s not the Russian high it’s the Azores, utter nuisances. 
 

We do still have time for change but it needs to be soon because the trend as usual seems very hard to reverse once is goes up in smoke.

[frosty ground]

On 04/01/2021 at 14:31, PolarWarsaw said:

The gullibility of people on this forum absolutely never ceases to amaze me, it's borderline comical. I'm ashamed to be part of a forum where a large majority of users can't interpret what people are saying and then apply it to really the most basic common sense. 

It's like the second an SSW is mentioned said users are spreading Chinese whispers about an ice age coming, how foolish? No wonder we are constantly fed news about front door scams, bank issues etc. 

There has to be a massive congratulations to the likes of Catacol, Chio, Scott, Feb, Bluearmy, Crewe etc - these guys went against the 'best', most expensive and technologically advanced computer forecasting models in predicting this SSW would happen and it has that is the best bit of forecasting on the website this year. 

I actually feel a bit sorry for these guys now though, even when discussing events after an SSW, they consistently used phrases such as 'might' or 'could do' - no guarantees, no promises. Yet as per usual when an ice age isn't showing the second an SSW starts in the Strat, people are launching toys like no tomorrow - it's embarrassing? Can people not control themselves? 

Seen as a good portion of people seem to need to rely on opinions of others to survive, let's sit down in the classroom and do some lines.

'An SSW does not GUARANTEE cold and snow to our 700 mile islands'....repeat

'An SSW can bring poor wintry weather to the UK'....repeat

'I must not use people's opinions to build up my hopes'....repeat

'If I live along the south coast, south west or inner London my hopes of Wintry weather must remain lower than the rest of the UK'...repeat

'An SSW is a weather phenomenon. We can't ignore winter output for 6 weeks because one may happen'

People do understand the basic logic of an SSW don't they? All it does is slightly increase the chances of cold and snow for the UK?

It's no guarantee, it's no banker and it certainly isn't worth some of the hype that goes into it. We have a very small sample size of what an SSW does? We do realise an SSW isn't a new thing in the weather, it's just that we are only now reaching an understanding with increased use of charts and data available? 

A particularly important comment I feel....'SSW's have been happening since the earth was formed...but UK winters are nearly always rubbish' - how can we be any clearer on taking the impact of an SSW with a pinch of salt?

If all of that wasn't enough, the UK is in the VERY worst location for any reversal in the entire of Europe. We are the furthest point away from any cold reverse and constantly the first at risk of an Atlantic sea that is so bias and so over-powering in this part of the world. That means everything has to go our way and anything can go wrong. 

I'm not sure how it can be made any clearer?

People need to be approaching the thread/today's 12z with the view that we are looking at normal standard January weather conditions, if the SSW has any good impact - then that needs to be viewed as a bonus. 

 

Hmmmm a few weeks later I think this was spot on, I can only apologise for being wrong.

[Gowon]

Mild is always the favored outcome in England - even with a beat up vortex 

[pureasthedriven]

2 minutes ago, DEYS(Kent) said:

Whilst the deep cold runs and the specific synoptics have undoubtedly changed, I really do advise to hold off the wrist slashing for 48hrs. That said, if the latest trend continues the blocking in the Atlantic should still be sufficient to send LP’s on a more southerly track which sets up those battlegrounds. All is not lost and still hopeful of the second bite of cold from the NE to arrive..

Really surprised how quickly Exeter flipped their mid-term analysis overnight. That was short-lived, even by their standards! Certainly shows a worrying degree of ‘confidence’ in the ‘somewhat below average to average’ mindset, supported by overnight suites. 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

All the means, majority of ens had been pointing to the cold arriving at day 6, now we are back to day 10 again.

Very strange. 

It's ALWAYS ten days away....

[beefy201]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Hmmmm a few weeks later I think this was spot on, I can only apologise for being wrong.

Its  a spot on post, we cant keep looking at models on a day to day basis and  in some cases hour to hour basis expecting them to be gospel. This cold spell will come and I have a hunch the route to it will cause a few surprises.